The Broncos’ defense should give Joe Brady and Josh Allen something to think about.
The two-seeded Buffalo Bills host the seven seed Denver Broncos on Sunday in Orchard Park, and I think some fans are a little “comfortable” with the matchup. The Broncos aren’t going to be an easy out.
What do they do that’s so successful?
Denver Broncos’ pass rush is legit
The Broncos have two double-digit sack artists in Nik Bonitto (13.5) and Jonathan Cooper (10.5). Zach Allen is also on the defensive line, and he finished the season with 8.5 but 40 quarterback hits. As a result, Denver finished the season leading the league in sacks and their pass defense is very stout. They gave up the second-fewest net yards per passing attempt in the league in 2024. Buffalo’s offensive line has been stellar this season, and we know Allen can avoid sacks, but they are probably the best pass rush the Bills have seen this season.
Vance Joseph has a lot of experience stopping explosive offenses
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has spent a long time figuring out how to limit high-level offenses. They only allowed 30+ points four times in 2024, were third in the NFL in points allowed, and first in points per drive allowed. Offenses were held under 21 points 11 times! The defense was second in yards per play, seventh in turnovers, and first in expected points added by a large margin. Joseph is in his second year in Denver but before that was the DC for the Cardinals for four seasons trying to stop the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams every year.
Sean Payton is a Super Bowl-winning head coach
Payton doesn’t have Drew Brees this time, but he’s 9-8 in the playoffs throughout his career and he’s won a lot of regular season games. He had the stones to do an onside kickoff in the Super Bowl in 2009 before analytics and going for it on fourth down and all that was a pervasive thing around the league. Don’t discount his ffect on this young team.
Bo Nix is very dangerous with his legs
Yes, the Broncos have a rookie quarterback. Traditionally, rookie QBs don’t do great against the Buffalo Bills and Sean McDermott. Nix has something special about him, though. Let’s start with his legs, where Nix had 430 yards and four touchdowns this year and a success rate of 53%. That’s 25 yards per game, and with the Bills’ hot-and-mostly-cold pass rush, he could get to the second level of the defense if they don’t defend him well.
Bo Nix can be a dangerous passer, too
For a rookie, Nix was very efficient in 2024. His completion percentage of 66.3% and yards per attempt of 6.7 shows he does get a lot of shorter passes, but he’s not afraid to unload it deep. He has a 93-yard touchdown pass on his resume, too.
Courtland Sutton is exactly the type of receiver the Bills have problems with
Sutton has great size and fights hard for the ball, which gives a lot of cornerbacks fits. Buffalo has had trouble stopping physical possession receivers in recent years, and Sutton is great at the point of catch and in contested situations. (We just talked about low yards per pass for Nix, and it’s because he looks to Sutton a lot
Broncos can play from behind
Because Nix plays like he has nothing to lose with the extreme confidence, the Broncos have three fourth-quarter comebacks and they would have had another if their last-second field goal against the Chiefs wasn’t blocked. Buffalo is going to need to put away this game — the earlier, the better.
Buffalo won’t get a weather advantage
We’ve talked about some other teams coming to Buffalo and being cold or not being built for snow and wind. The Broncos definitely are. It also snows in the outdoor stadium in Denver, and it won’t even be bitterly cold like it has been this week in Western New York. It’s going to be about 30 degrees on Sunday, not 15.
The Broncos have played well against good teams
The Broncos have played good teams hard this year. Denver has a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and close losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals. They could make this game very interesting. The only multi-score loss on the year was against the Baltimore Ravens. It was 10-7 midway through the second, before the Ravens blew it open.
The Bills haven’t always been great in the wild card round
Our final point turns the focus to Buffalo, who hasn’t exactly been a juggernaught in the wild card round. They scored with 6:27 left against the Mason Rudolph Steelers last year to make it a two-score game, the year before that they beat the Skylar Thompson Dolphins by a field goal, and in January 2021, the Colts and the last gasp of Phillip Rivers had a Hail Mary attempt to win at the end. The lone exception is Buffalo’s thorough dismantling of the New England Patriots in January 2022, when they scored on every possession.
There is also a really long list of reasons the Broncos should be worried. There is a really long list of reasons the Bills should be confident heading into Sunday, too. Please don’t read this as gloom and doom, but the Broncos need some respect on their name coming into the playoffs.