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2024 NFL Playoffs: Where Do Bills Rank in Latest AFC Projections?

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The Buffalo Bills are heading to the playoffs courtesy of their fifth consecutive AFC East division title. Now their focus shifts to chasing down the rival Kansas City Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye week that’d be invaluable for a team that’s been banged up all season.

Right now, it doesn’t seem like there’s much drama in the AFC postseason race, but don’t be surprised if that changes during the final month of the regular season. The Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins aren’t going to go quietly.

Meanwhile, the other intriguing battle to watch will be the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers fighting for the AFC North crown. The Steelers have been rolling, but a difficult schedule down the stretch could open the door for Lamar Jackson and Co.

Bills, AFC Seeding Projections For 2024 NFL Playoffs

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3; AFC West)

The Chiefs have been playing with fire all season. Only two of their 11 wins have come by more than a single score, and their most recent triumphs over the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, two of the league’s worst teams, were only by a combined five points.

Kansas City also faces a tough schedule down the stretch. That means one of two things is going to happen. Either Patrick Mahomes’ group is going to find its peak form at a perfect time to roll toward their third straight Super Bowl title or the issues on display all season will start causing real problems.

History suggests the Chiefs will find a way to maintain the AFC’s top spot.

2. Buffalo Bills (13-4; AFC East)

Bills head coach Sean McDermott discussed the No. 1 seed pursuit after Sunday’s dominant win over the San Francisco 49ers.

“It’s probably the next goal for us is to position ourselves the best we can,” McDermott told reporters. “We control a piece of that and then some of that we don’t. So, it’s really about our level of play every week, getting to the level it needs to be, and that usually puts you in a good spot one way or the other.”

Buffalo’s enjoyed a lot of success during the McDermott era, but it’s never secured the top seed. While getting home-field advantage is obviously important, the week off to help heal what’s been a season-long barrage of key injuries could prove essential to a possible Super Bowl run.

This week’s road game against the Los Angeles Rams may ultimately be the deciding factor. The Bills will be underdogs while traveling to face the Detroit Lions and they’ll be heavy favorites in their final three games. The Rams game is the biggest toss-up of the bunch.

Sure, the Bills could still make a deep playoff run from the No. 2 spot, but it would create a far tougher mountain to climb in a deep conference.

3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6; AFC North)

Yes, the Ravens are only 3-3 over their past six games, but a much-needed bye week should help them press the reset button. They also have a schedule advantage over the Steelers. They have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule, while Pittsburgh’s slate is the sixth-toughest, per ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Baltimore also benefits from having a home game against the Steelers still on its schedule. As long as they Ravens win that matchup, they have a great shot to win the division despite the current 1.5-game deficit.

4. Houston Texans (10-7; AFC South)

The Texans are the overlooked X-factor in the AFC. They’ve struggled since a 5-1 start and it’s caused them to fall off the national radar a bit. Yet, from a talent perspective they can still match up with any team in the conference. They should also open the playoffs at home as AFC South winners.

Most of the attention will surround whether quarterback C.J. Stroud can bounce back amid a rough stretch, but how about the defense? The unit allowed 32 points to the offense-starved Tennessee Titans and gave up 14 fourth-quarter points to Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars. That side of the ball must improve to spark a late-season surge.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6; Wild Card)

The health of J.K. Dobbins will likely determine the Bolts’ playoff upside. The running back is currently sidelined by a knee injury. He’s in a race against time to return for the postseason, and the offense simply isn’t as dangerous without his game-breaking ability.

That said, if Dobbins returns the Chargers become the proverbial wild card no one wants to play. A team that can control the clock on the ground but also has a high-end signal-caller like Justin Herbert is always an incredibly tough out.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7; Wild Card)

Are the Steelers for real? We’ll probably know the answer before the playoffs kick off. Look at this finishing stretch the current AFC North leaders face:

There are no gimmes on that list. The Browns are more dangerous with Jameis Winston under center and there’s a real chance the Bengals are still fighting for a playoff spot in the finale. If nothing else, the Steelers will enter the postseason as battle tested as any team in the field.

7. Denver Broncos (9-8; Wild Card)

The Broncos are on bye this week. When they return, they’ll face a virtual must-win game against the fellow wild-card hopeful Colts. Denver finishes with games against the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs, which makes an 0-3 skid possible.

Beating the Colts would give them breathing room to potentially make the playoffs even if they lose those last three games. That said, all those hurdles left on the schedule should create plenty of urgency despite having what seems like a comfortable edge in the playoff race at the moment.

Out: Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals (8-9)

The amount of people writing an obituary about the Bengals’ season after Sunday’s loss to the Steelers felt misguided. They have five winnable games remaining, including a head-to-head matchup with the Broncos, the current owners of the No. 7 seed. It’s not over for Cincinnati.

Likewise, Indianapolis and Miami can hold out hope a playoff spot will be available at 9-8. Both those teams can even win out to reach 10 wins. So, despite their current sub-.500 records, it’s too soon to close the window.

It feels like every year at least one team gets hot at the right time to make the postseason, too.

Last year, both the Bills and Rams made late surges into the playoffs. The Bills won their last five games to go from 6-6 to the AFC East division title. The Rams ended with a four-game winning streak to turn a 6-7 record into a 10-7 playoff berth.

That’s why it’s too early to rule out drama. Both conferences may look cut and dry right now, but it’s unlikely December comes and goes without at least a couple of teams making a serious push.

As it stands, only two teams have officially punched their ticket to the playoffs: the Chiefs and Bills. Everyone else still has work to do with five weeks to play.

Main Photo: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

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