The Buffalo Bills will play the Denver Broncos at home at Highmark Stadium in the Wild Card round.
The Bills (13-4) won 10 of 11 games before their Week 18 loss to the New England Patriots, while the Broncos (10-7) are winners in five of their last seven.
The Bills are favored by 8.5 points and they are playing at home where they were undefeated this season (8-0). The last time the Bills faced the Broncos was a regular-season loss to a Russell Wilson-led squad at quarterback in the 2023, 24-22. The Broncos will roll out rookie Bo Nix under center for this time.
Even though the Bills are favored by multiple scores, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, especially against playoff teams. Buffalo will need to execute its game plan to advance in the postseason.
With that, here are three keys to a Bills win vs. the Broncos:
Stay ahead of the sticks
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The Broncos’ pass rush is undoubtedly the team’s biggest strength. They led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than the second-most, and also led the NFL with 265 quarterback pressures, 10 more than the second-most. Along with that, their 37.4% pressure rate was third-best in the league.
The best way to minimize their pass rushers is to avoid second or third-and-long situations. Buffalo will need to keep Denver’s defensive front guessing between pass and run. What better team to do that than the one that just became the first team in NFL history with 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a season.
The more the Bills can make the down-and-distance manageable, the more they’ll be able to mix pass and run, making life easier for them on Sunday.
Disguise looks on defense
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Under defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, the Bills defense has disguised coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league (36%). With rookie signal caller Bo Nix heading into Highmark Stadium on Sunday, the disguised looks could make his first playoff start even more difficult than it will already be.
According to Pro Football Focus, Nix’s depth of target against disguised coverages is only 6.2 yards, which ranks 31st out of 32 qualifying QBs. Mixing things up post-snap has forced Nix to check the ball down for short throws this year. Nix has had a remarkable rookie year, but if there’s one way you can force him into checking it down it’s disguising the look. When Nix checks down, tackling in space will be key.
Use the home crowd for a fast start
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The most rewarding aspect of being one of the top seeds in the AFC is getting to play in front of your home crowd in the postseason. For the Bills, the “Bills Mafia” can noticeably impact a game.
With a young, scrappy team like the Broncos, you don’t want them lurking around within one score in the fourth quarter. With a proven head coach in Sean Payton, they could pull it off if given the chance late in the game.
The best way to handle the Wild Card is to ride your home crowd’s momentum into a fast start. Bills Mafia has waited 357 days since the disappointing Divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs for their next chance at a home playoff game. That crowd will be rockin’.