Division games in December can be wonky. Will the Bills fall victim to their own hype?
The Buffalo Bills are the AFC East champions for the fifth straight year. The New England Patriots are careening towards their second consecutive last-place finish in the AFC East. New England hasn’t finished in the division’s cellar in consecutive seasons since the 1999 and 2000 seasons. In 1999, they finished tied for last with the New York Jets at 8-8. They have never finished in sole possession of last place in the AFC East for two straight years.
The Bills enter play riding high offensively, having scored 48 points last week in a victory over the Detroit Lions and 42 points the week prior against the Los Angeles Rams. However, in the latter contest, the Bills gave up 44 points and lost. Against Detroit, they allowed 42 points. So, the Bills defense enters play reeling a bit. They need a “get-right game.”
Enter the New England Patriots, who are No. 31 in the league in scoring, No. 30 in total yards, and No. 32 in passing yards this season. If ever there were a time for the Bills’ defense to right the ship, it’s now.
Here are five Bills to watch in this week’s divisional matchup.
RB Ray Davis
Someone is going to run the ball a lot for the Bills this week, and if the game ends up as lopsided as I anticipate that it will, my guess is that Davis is the main beneficiary. New England allows 4.4 yards per rush, and opposing teams have 13 rushing touchdowns against them this season. Last week, the only Buffalo running back who didn’t score was Ty Johnson. Davis had a receiving touchdown that proved to be the winning margin, but he totaled just 29 yards on nine touches. The rookie is Buffalo’s third-leading rusher, trailing James Cook (828 rushing yards) and Josh Allen (484 rushing yards). Davis has had a solid season, though, totaling 357 yards and three rushing touchdowns, adding 13 receptions, 167 receiving yards, and two more scores. He’ll have some chances this week.
WR Amari Cooper
He wasn’t targeted last week. If I were a gambler—and I’m not, for the record—I’d put a wager on Cooper being the recipient of Josh Allen’s first pass, if that kind of thing is on the books somewhere. I also feel pretty confident that offensive coordinator Joe Brady will look to dial something up for him in the red zone. To be clear, neither Cooper nor Brady seems to care one bit about personal statistics so long as the team wins the game. I’m sure that Cooper was happier with his 0/0/0 line last week in a victory than he was with his six-catch, 95-yard performance with 14 targets in a loss against the Rams. I just can’t see the Bills keeping Cooper on ice for two straight weeks.
DE Javon Solomon
The rookie was noticeable against the Lions, even managing to win a clean pass-rush rep against All-World tackle Penei Sewell. With veteran Casery Toohill’s release earlier this week, there may be some snaps opening up Solomon, especially in clear pass situations. Veteran Dawuane Smoot kicks inside on many third downs, and Solomon has shown some juice that veterans A.J. Epenesa and Von Miller haven’t shown consistently. This week would be a good time to let the rookie loose a bit in some third-and-long scenarios. New England quarterback Drake Maye is a good athlete, so if Solomon and the Buffalo edges don’t maintain their rush lanes and play solid contain, he can burn them with his legs. I’d like to see Solomon notch a sack this week.
LB Matt Milano
I’m interested in two things as it relates to No. 58: Will he play? And if he does, how effective will he be as he deals with a groin injury and works back from a pectoral tear? Milano has been just okay in his return from injured reserve, notching 11 tackles, one tackle for loss, one quarterback hit, and one fumble recovery in his three games. However, according to Pro Football Reference, Milano has already missed a whopping seven tackles. For reference, that’s the third-highest total on the team this season. Again, he’s only played in three games. Milano has always been a guy who misses a lot of tackles, but after his replacement, Dorian Williams, missed just eight tackles in his 11 starts, it’s jarring to see Milano back in the lineup missing stops. This might be an unpopular opinion, but he needs to be better as the team enters the playoffs, and if he isn’t, then the coaching staff needs to make a tough decision and go back to Williams. This week is a prime opportunity for Milano to show out as he works his way back into game shape.
CB Rasul Douglas
Similar to Milano, I’m interested in whether Douglas plays, and if he does, how effective he’ll be after missing last week thanks to a knee injury. Buffalo was totally different schematically last week with Kaiir Elam starting, as they went man more often—especially early in the game. With Douglas back, I’d expect some more zone looks, especially if they can throw some post-snap changes at a rookie quarterback. If all the veterans—Douglas and safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin—are back, then I think the Bills can run their scheme, confuse the rookie, and put this one away fairly early. Look for Douglas to try to jump a route and notch his first interception of the 2024 season, too.