The Colts need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive
The Buffalo Bills travel to the state of Indiana this weekend to face off against a former AFC East rival, the Indianapolis Colts. The Bills were run off the field the last time these two clubs met, as they allowed 264 rushing yards in an ugly 41-15 loss back in November 2021.
This time around, the Bills hope that their newly fortified defensive interior can withstand Indianapolis’ excellent ground attack. With this game sandwiched between a big contest against a desperate divisional rival and a big contest against their perennial playoff boogeyman, this is a classic “trap” game for the Bills.
How can the Bills avoid the letdown? They can start by limiting our five Colts to watch this week.
RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor carried 32 times for 185 yards and four touchdowns the last time these teams met. While that might have helped my fantasy football team at the time, it certainly didn’t help my blood pressure as I watched the Colts continually gash the Bills on the ground. Buffalo has to avoid a similar fate this Sunday if they want a chance at maintaining their current three-game win streak.
The plan has to be to force the venerable Joe Flacco to beat them through the air, although it’s tough to commit to a stop-the-run defense out of a nickel formation. Slot corner Taron Johnson, as well as Buffalo’s linebackers and defensive tackles, will need to play their keys perfectly this week.
WR Josh Downs
Last week, the speedy slot receiver saw the most targets from Flacco, catching six passes for 60 yards on nine balls thrown his way. This is why Taron Johnson’s job is going to be so hard this week. Not only will he have to keep with one of the Colts’ top wideouts, but he’ll also be responsible for playing the run aggressively.
If Downs is able to find space over the middle against either of Buffalo’s linebackers or safety Damar Hamlin, Flacco will definitely take those matchups. Limiting the run will lessen the impact of play-action passes, which will allow Buffalo’s coverage players to do their thing.
DT Grover Stewart
The defensive tackle who earns the most press is usually DeForest Buckner, but Stewart is a problem in his own right. The 6’4”, 316-pounder is a space-eating machine, and he’s also capable of penetrating the backfield and destroying plays himself.
Stewart has 36 tackles, eight tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, and 2.5 sacks this season. It’s a really strong interior portion of the Colts’ defense, and Stewart could easily give Buffalo’s interior linemen an issue. Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, especially, has struggled in pass protection this season. Look for that to be an area that the Colts try to exploit.
LB Zaire Franklin
The NFL’s leading tackler often has a clear path to ball carriers thanks to his big defensive tackles in front of him. With a Bills team that has run the ball effectively all season long, Franklin will have to remain as good as he’s been at middle linebacker. He’ll have the added responsibility of dealing with Buffalo’s tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, and slot wideout Khalil Shakir in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
If offensive coordinator Joe Brady can devise some plays to move Franklin out of his comfort zone, it could unlock the middle of the field. However, teams don’t generally make their greatest impact against the Colts in the middle. Using pulling linemen to create rushing lanes or running some inside zone to give James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson the ability to find cut-back lanes against this defense could lead to some big plays.
CB Jaylon Jones
The second-year corner is having a strong season, totaling nine pass breakups and two interceptions this season. He also has 59 tackles so far. Jones was a seventh-round pick last season, but he’s played much better than a typical seventh-rounder. At 6’2” and 203 pounds, he’s a strong, long athlete who can definitely present problems when he’s locked up one-on-one with a smaller wideout.
Pro Football Reference has Jones down for 38 completions allowed on 59 attempts (64%) for 497 yards and one touchdown. The other starting corner, Samuel Womack III, has been phenomenal, allowing just 10-of-21 passes thrown his way to be completed per PFR’s numbers. Both of Indy’s corners are excellent, so quarterback Josh Allen will need to tread lightly and take what the defense gives him.