Everything you need to know as the Bills look to run their winning streak to five games!
The Buffalo Bills (7-2) have won their last five games to widen their lead in the AFC East to a commanding four games heading into Week 10. But if they want to run their winning streak to six, the Bills will have to defeat a scrappy and resilient Indianapolis Colts (4-5) squad, with a depleted wide receiver room and defensive line, and in a place where Buffalo hasn’t won since the 1998 season, when quarterback Doug Flutie outplayed then-rookie quarterback Peyton Manning to guide the Bills to a 31-24 triumph.
This week on the Billieve podcast, host John Boccacino has everything you need to know to get ready for Sunday’s game as the Bills look to prevail in a matchup of AFC playoff hopefuls. On the surface, many Bills fans might think Buffalo will easily prevail in Indy, but make no mistake: This matchup has “trap game” written all over it, and this is a sneaky-tough road game against a Colts squad that is still firmly in the playoff picture. Indianapolis is the first team in NFL history to have played all one-possession games through Week 9, while Buffalo’s average margin of victory has been 9.7 points, with four victories by at least three touchdowns. The Bills have only played four one-score games, including last week’s thrilling victory against the Miami Dolphins.
As the Bills go into Indianapolis Sunday, they are currently sitting 21st in the NFL in sack percentage (6.2%), 23rd in pressure percentage (32%), tied for 25th in yards allowed per rush (4.8) and tied for 26th in most rushes of at least 10 yards allowed (35). We know the Bills aren’t going to blitz much at all, so the front four has to get home because while Colts QB Joe Flacco may be a statue in the pocket, if he has time, he can still pick a defense apart.
The Colts did sustain a major blow to their talented offense when four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly was placed on Injured Reserve (IR), paving the way for rookie Tanor Bortolini to start against the Bills. With two rookies starting up front (Bortolini and undrafted free-agent right guard Dalton Tucker), this would be an opportune time for DaQuan Jones to rediscover his disruptive form and for Ed Oliver to terrorize the rookie with pressure up the middle. Led by talented running back Jonathan Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson, the Colts like to run the ball and the Bills struggled to stop the run in their win over the Dolphins last week. The Bills will need to rediscover their success stopping the run, because Indy can run the ball well, as Taylor is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and 83.7 yards per game and has also averaged 10 yards per catch as a receiver. If the Colts can get the ground game going, that should open up Joe Flacco to use play-action passes.
Buffalo’s safety duo of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin will be tested this weekend against a Colts team that can and will hit the deep ball. The primary deep weapon is Alec Pierce, who has the highest yards-per-catch average in the NFL (22.9). Josh Downs is an up-and-coming possession receiver out of the slot who leads the Colts with 38 catches and 22 first downs, and even if true WR1 Michael Pittman is sidelined, Pierce, Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox and Taylor are formidable receiving options. Look for nickel cornerback Taron Johnson to step up and have a big game against Downs and in coverage against Taylor.
With rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman sidelined, the Bills don’t have anyone capable of being an explosive downfield threat and they’re actually at their best when Allen takes what the defense gives him, which should be the case on Sunday. On the year, the Bills rank fifth in the NFL in YAC, so if the Colts are going to play zone to protect against deep shots, Allen should feed off that with ample opportunities available underneath to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, James Cook, and Ray Davis. Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles (95), but he’s also a liability in pass coverage as he has allowed 32 completions on 37 passes (86.5%) into his area for 294 yards this year. Allen relied on Cook and Davis in the passing game last week, and I expect more of the same versus Indianapolis.
With the Bills being short-handed at wide receiver, look for Buffalo to run plenty of 12 personnel (one back and two tight ends), with Dalton Kincaid potentially enjoying a breakout performance. Buffalo should also be able to run the ball on an Indy defense that is allowing nearly 150 yards per game on the ground, 31st in the NFL.
The Colts like to alternate between base and nickel, and cornerback Kenny Moore is their best cover man. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady would be wise to attack the outside when Moore is in the slot and utilize Shakir and Kincaid over the middle when Moore is on the boundary. Indianapolis is talented along their defensive line, led by DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, who will challenge left guard David Edwards, center Connor McGovern, and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence. That trio will face a big test on Sunday and will need to provide a clean pocket to allow Allen to find his open receivers.
I close by offering up score predictions as the Bills look to remain undefeated at home in 2024. How do you see this game playing out? Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments section below.
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