Josh Allen, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir figure to be heavily involved against the Broncos — check out what FanDuel has to say about their chances
It’s NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, Bills Mafia! The playoffs begin Sunday afternoon for the Buffalo Bills, who welcome the Denver Broncos for just the second postseason meeting ever between the two franchises.
In addition to the game on the field, you can also get in the game with FanDuel Sportsbook, where plenty of bets for both the game and individual players await you. Understand that the figures posted here are constantly changing and that there is no sure thing when it comes to betting and the NFL. As such, the numbers presented below represent the values at the time of posting only — so always check your wager as these numbers are subject to change.
Be sure to check out FanDuel’s promotion during the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend (and the College Football Playoff) that allows you to take a chance on one refundable SGP per day (Thursday through Monday).
If you’re ready to dive into the world of same-game parlays (SGP), here are a few Bills-focused options to consider when building your SGP against the Broncos.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos FanDuel Sportsbook SGP
Player receiving yards: James Cook (Over) O 12.5 (-113)
If the Broncos have a known defensive weakness, it’s found in covering running backs out of the backfield. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady likely knows that targeting running backs out of the backfield should yield good results against Denver’s defense. Why? As noted in B.J. Monacelli’s keys-to-the-game analysis: The Broncos rank 31st in pass DVOA against running backs; they’ve allowed the 12th-most passing yards per play to RBs (6.3), and allow a +.03 EPA/pass to the RB position. Denver has given up 84 receptions on 100 targets to RBs, allowing 641 yards and six touchdowns to the position. As B.J. further noted, the Broncos appear “ripe for the picking” due to their man-coverage propensity. Look for James Cook to get back to his dual-threat ways Sunday afternoon.
Alt Receptions: Khalil Shakir 6+ (+120)
You can essentially consider everything written above about James Cook and apply it to Khalil Shakir — Josh Allen’s favorite pass catcher, and an uber-reliable receiver out of the slot and in heavy traffic between the down-and-distance markers.
Shakir caught 76 passes on 100 targets for 821 yards and four touchdowns. The next closest Bills receiver (Dalton Kincaid) was 32 receptions behind (44) Shakir on 25 less targets (75), and with almost half as many yards (448). Everybody may eat in Buffalo’s offense, but Allen and Shakir are the first to the table.
Shakir caught six or more passes in seven games during the 2024 regular season. Look for him to have a busy afternoon against Denver.
Alt Passing Touchdowns: Josh Allen 3+ (+370)
Again referencing B.J. Monacelli’s fantastic analysis piece on Sunday’s game, there may be plenty of opportunity for Allen to target the end zone. That’s due to the Broncos’ propensity to blitz and blitz often (37.3% of opponent dropbacks in 2024) — i.e. the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
Despite their successes, B.J. points out that Next Gen Stats (NGS) shows Denver also surrendered 15 of their 22 touchdown passes and recorded only 4 of their 15 interceptions when blitzing — and generated pressure on just 38.3% of their blitzes. That figure is the ninth-lowest rate in NFL, and as B.J. points out is “only +1.3% higher than their league-leading 36.9% pressure rate with four or fewer pass rushers.”
Josh Allen has had plenty of success against the blitz in 2024, with 16 touchdown passes (tied for second-most in the NFL in 2024), and just one interception. Allen also saw the seventh-lowest pressure rate (34.4%) on blitzes he faced, per NGS.
Allen has passed for three or more touchdowns in four out of 10 playoff games — including four of the last six games he played in between the 2021 and 2023 NFL seasons. Look for Josh Allen to make the Broncos pay when they blitz.
If you put these three bets together as a same game parlay, right now it will give you odds of +1302, meaning a $100 bet would net you a payout of $1,402.55 ($1,302.55 in profit). While the odds feel ripe for the taking, remember that each leg has to hit for you to cash in.
What game or player bets you’re considering ahead of Bills-Broncos on Sunday afternoon?