One of the NFL’s premiere rivalries hits Round 8 this afternoon — and we may see some unlikely players key their team to victory
Later today the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in what will be the eighth time that quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have played head to head. This matchup represents the biggest rivalry in the AFC, and perhaps even the entire NFL during this era.
The Bills and Chiefs have never reached their regular-season matchup in a better position records-wise — Buffalo is 8-2, Kansas City is 9-0. Despite both teams dealing with injuries, they’re ready to, yet again, put on a show in Orchard Park, NY. You can be sure to expect a high-intensity competitive game between the two juggernauts.
A lot has been said about Allen vs. Mahomes and how QB17 has gone 3-1 against KC in the regular season, only for QB15 to squash Buffalo’s Super Bowl hopes three times thanks to a 3-0 postseason head-to-head record. Plenty has also been discussed of the matchup between head coaches Sean McDermott and Andy Reid. To this point in time, McDermott as the former defensive coordinator and pupil hasn’t been able to surpass his mentor in Reid.
What isn’t talked about enough is how much of an impact “supporting casts” have had in deciding those epic games the last few years. No matter if it was due to a kicker hitting (or missing) a late-game field goal, Taron Johnson or Greg Rousseau making game-changing interceptions, Chris Jones winning a rep against Dion Dawkins and impacting a throw of Allen’s, or even Marquez Valdes-Scantling securing an important catch late the game as Stefon Diggs dropped another one on the other side — a lot of players had an opportunity to be the difference in each outcome.
Who might emerge as unlikely heroes — the X-Factors ready to change the story of today’s game? Here are those players — one on offense, one on defense, who I see rising up for both teams.
Buffalo Bills’ Week 11 defensive X-Factor
Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson are extremely important to Buffalo’s defensive identity. Cornerbacks Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have played incredibly well, and defensive end Greg Rousseau continues getting better and better. But I have a different X-Factor for this game: Edge rusher Von Miller
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Von Miller came to the Bills to wreak havoc in these type of games. When general manager Brandon Beane contacted the future Hall of Famer, I have no doubts in my mind he’d seen enough of Buffalo getting too close to sacking Mahomes in what would’ve been game-changing plays, only to fall short. Beane was sure Miller would become that “closer” he had in mind.
The beginning of their partnership was promising, but then injury derailed the party. After a worrisome first season back and a pay cut, here we are with Miller looking like his old self again. He hasn’t played much, being saved for pass-rushing downs, but when Miller plays, he does so very well. Miller’s shown he’s still got it in him, and I’m certain he has this game circled as a closing event. Miller knows the fastest way to recover the respect (and the money) he’s lost is by making a big impact in huge games. In facing the Chiefs, Miller should find his true first opportunity of the season to be the closer, and I can’t wait to watch number 40 going against a problematic tackle duo of the Chiefs.
Buffalo Bills’ Week 11 offensive X-Factor
There are plenty of potential candidates on offense, from tight end Dawson Knox who’ll get extended playing time with Dalton Kincaid out for this game, to Amari Cooper who might be back from injury this week, and even Khalil Shakir who might see an increase in usage without Keon Coleman and Kincaid in action.
My choice for this game, though, is Mack Hollins.
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Hollins has been a guy I’d like to see less and less involved in the passing game. However, due to Buffalo’s injuries at wide receiver, the offense needs Hollins to step up big-time yet again, just like he did last week.
The best-case scenario is Cooper plays, because it forces KC to make a decision with their best corner in McDuffie. Does he play outside and follow Cooper? Or do they treat Shakir as the true number-one receiver in this offense and play McDuffie in the nickel? He’s played more outside recently, but I see them keying on Shakir.
With names like Nazeeh Johnson, Chamarri Conner, and Joshua Williams left, my best guess is they’d double Cooper and leave Hollins to battle one-on-ones all day long. That’s where he has to win and make them pay, the way he did last week against the Colts. If Hollins can do so, even without several important pieces in the passing game, the Bills should have enough weapons to overcome that passing defense.
Remember, despite their defensive success, the Chiefs haven’t been great at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, and it’s a unit that also hasn’t defended the pass that well. There’s an opportunity to be explored there, and having Hollins show that he can take advantage of single coverages will make a huge difference in Buffalo’s favor.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 11 defensive X-Factor
It would be easy to go with Chris Jones or Trent McDuffie here — the defensive tackle and the cornerback are the key superstars for a strong Chiefs defense and certainly will be focal points in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s game plan. With that said, that’s a unit with other very capable players, and I see an X-Factor who’s played his best on the biggest stages.
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Nick Bolton is an awesome linebacker. He has the size to play physically when dealing with blockers in traffic, but also the speed to run from sideline to sideline. The Bills enjoyed some success running the ball against the Chiefs in the first half of last January’s game. Now, with so many injuries to pass catchers, I believe Brady will establish that run game again this afternoon.
If Bolton has one of his best days, he can almost single-handedly create issues for Buffalo’s run game and force them to throw more than they’d like. That’s especially the case if wide receiver Amari Cooper (questionable) really can’t go. Putting the Bills’ offense in 3rd & Long can unlock the exotic blitz packages of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, which Bolton also has a role in. Keep an eye on number 32.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 11 offensive X-Factor
Again, we all know about Mahomes and Kelce, and how lethal their partnership can be. No doubt it’s priority one for McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to minimize the damage they can cause in the passing game. However, there’s another area where Buffalo’s defense needs to be sound, or risk finding their entire game plan against KC go out the window.
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Knowing the Bills are a base nickel defense, Andy Reid and the Chiefs have consistently played bigger and heavier offensive personnel against Buffalo. Enter the two and even three tight end packages, which allows them to have the size advantage in the run game and may also force Buffalo into business decisions regarding snaps for their All-Pro nickel corner. Doing that could find the Bills matching up using a third linebacker and getting exposed against play action.
We know Taron Johnson and the nickel defense is Buffalo’s defensive bread and butter. We also understand there’s a great chance KC goes bigger and tests it with their run game. Isiah Pacheco is out but don’t overlook Kareem Hunt. He’s an extremely physical runner who will try to punish Buffalo’s defense between the tackles — an area where they haven’t played extremely well in recent games.
The Chiefs need to run the ball so as not to expose their less-than-ideal pass protection on clear passing downs. A big day by Hunt would help them tremendously. The Bills need more of the same run defense that came to play in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts.
Catch up with all this and more during my latest edition of Leading the Charge!