Bills vs. Chiefs, Week 11: How to stop KC’s offense

Bills’ defensive keys to success defending against Mahomes & company

The best game of the 2024 season is upon us as the 8-2 Buffalo Bills welcome the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the NFL season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have the Chiefs’ offense flirting with top-10 numbers in numerous statistics, and they’re always a threat to post a big day through the air.

Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been as dominant as expected by Bills Mafia, but they have kept the ship afloat and are ready to get back on track as some key players have returned from injury. Here are five points of emphasis to hone in on for Kansas City’s offense and a key to success for Buffalo’s defense in defending against them. All of the advanced stats below are from NFL Pro unless noted otherwise.

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Generate pressure without the blitz

Chiefs’ tendencies: Kansas City’s offensive line is one of the best in the NFL at protecting the quarterback. They allow a league-low pressure rate of just 28.3% and a sack rate of 6%, which are both top 10 in the NFL. Mahomes is also allotted the second-best time until pressure (2.92 seconds), giving him plenty of time to make decisions in the pocket. Blitzing him is usually a losing proposition as he ranks fourth-best in EPA/pass against the blitz (+.21) and the Chiefs’ offense is hard to rattle in those situations.

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo’s front four must step up to create pressure without sending extra rushers. Edge rusher Von Miller will be critical here as he continues returning to form but he also helps take pressure off sack leader Greg Rousseau. Defensive end A.J. Epenesa is putting together a nice season with five sacks so far, and it would be nice to see him add to that total on Sunday. Buffalo’s defensive tackles, including Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, must push the pocket from the interior and the edge players need to stay in sync with them to prevent Mahomes from stepping up or rolling out to extend plays. When the Bills do blitz, they have to be selective and calculated. Buffalo’s blitz packages have been highly effective, generating pressure on 49.3% of their blitzes (top 5) and leading the league in EPA/pass allowed when blitzing (-.51).

By relying on their base four-man pass rush, Buffalo can allocate more defenders to tighten up the passing lanes for Mahomes. Kansas City’s tackles are banged up and have had trouble protecting Mahomes the past two games, allowing eight sacks over that period. I would expect Buffalo’s edge rushers to come into this game grinning with excitement about getting Mahomes on the ground.

Take Away the Short Middle & Short Right of the Field

Chiefs’ tendencies: KC’s passing game thrives in the short areas of the field, particularly the middle and right. They’ve attempted 69 passes to the short middle (fourth-most) and 118 to the short right (fifth-most), with excellent efficiency on routes under 10 yards (+0.11 EPA/pass, fifth in the NFL).

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo’s linebackers and slot defenders will be key to taking away these high-percentage throws. Linebacker Terrel Bernard, the team’s defensive captain, needs to have his best game of the season, particularly in recognizing and disrupting motion-heavy plays. Kansas City runs the third-most passing plays that involve motion, with 253 plays.

Force Mahomes to throw deep

Chiefs’ Tendencies: Mahomes has thrown the fewest deep passes (20+ air yards) of any quarterback in the NFL, attempting them on just 4.5% of his throws. When the Chiefs do throw deep, they’ve struggled, posting a third-worst -.25 EPA/pass. The addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins gives them another option for vertical plays, but Kansas City has yet to connect on deep shots consistently. Rookie first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy is the NFL’s fastest man, but he has yet to prove he can be a reliable deep threat for Mahomes. Also, let’s not allow Worthy have a big game…. please?

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo’s game plan should prioritize clogging Mahomes’ short (under 10 yards) passing windows, forcing him to attack downfield. Cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford have been excellent at limiting separation and contesting deep throws, which should mean they’re well-suited for this strategy. This team has been a nightmare for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who thrives on quick passes to his first read. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills use some of that defensive recipe to take away quick options for Mahomes, and try to entice him into forcing a ball into a tight window.

Win on third down

Chiefs’ tendencies: Kansas City’s offense is number one in the NFL in converting third and fourth downs, which is part of their offensive success. Not only do they convert at an elite rate, but Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA/pass on third down with +.30. The Chiefs lead the NFL in time of possession, largely in part because they consistently sustain momentum when getting to third downs. Buffalo’s defense can’t let them dominate the time of possession battle and keep Josh Allen off the field for extended periods of time. The Bills’ defense needs to win this battle.

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo must focus on early down efficiency to create 3rd & Long situations. If the Chiefs face manageable third downs, their offense becomes nearly unstoppable. On third down, Buffalo’s pass rush must close the pocket quickly, particularly from the interior to get pressure in Mahomes’ face to affect the throw, where Ed Oliver has been a force.

In coverage, Buffalo needs to stick to their assignments and avoid giving up easy completions. The Bills rank 21st in the league in third-down defense, allowing a fifth-worst +0.12 EPA/pass. Improving in this area will be critical to their success.

Win the red zone battle

Chiefs’ tendencies: KC ranks 17th in red zone TD percentage, converting at just at 54.29% rate. This is particularly important since their kicker Harrison Butker is out with an injury, which forced the team to bring in a rookie kicker off the New York Jets’ practice squad with only a few days of preparation. This may affect the Chiefs’ willingness to go for it in questionable field goal situations. Mahomes is 11th in passing touchdowns in the red zone with nine TDs, but he has also thrown two interceptions.

Bills’ key to success: Buffalo’s defense has a “bend but don’t break” philosophy and is exceptional at preventing teams from scoring red zone touchdowns. They rank eighth-best in the NFL, only allowing red zone TDs to opposing offenses at a 47.22% clip. Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins will be particularly dangerous in this area, and attention must be given accordingly. If the Bills can turn Kansas City’s red zone trips into field goals, I believe the Bills will win the game handily.