Where do the Bills have the advantage?
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins face off again in Week 9, looking to rekindle their rivalry after Buffalo’s dominant 31-10 victory in Week 2. The Dolphins are coming off a close loss to the Arizona Cardinals that dropped them to 2-5 and third in the AFC East. The Bills hold a commanding lead in the AFC East with a record of 6-2, meaning this game is do-or-die for the Dolphins.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was injured during the third quarter in Week 2, made his return to the gridiron last week. Today’s game should be a tight division showdown, even though the two teams appear headed in very different directions.
To get us ready for this afternoon’s game at Highmark Stadium, here’s a breakdown of the key matchups to watch on both sides. All advanced stats below are via Next Gen Stats, courtesy of pro.nfl.com.
Buffalo Bills’ pass offense vs. Miami Dolphins’ pass defense
The Bills’ passing game has been a consistent powerhouse against the Dolphins, with quarterback Josh Allen posting a 110.0 passer rating in 13 regular-season games against Miami. He’s thrown 34 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in those 13 games. Allen has also been dominant on the ground, totaling 640 yards and five touchdowns in his regular-season career against the Dolphins. Miami’s pass defense ranks fifth in the NFL, allowing only 176.3 passing yards per game — though this may be influenced by teams focusing on the run when they have the lead.
The Dolphins’ pass rush has only snagged nine sacks this season, but they are second in the NFL in pressure rate at 40.5% — and they blitz frequently (30% of pass plays). However, opposing quarterbacks get plenty of time to throw as Miami allows an average of 2.93 seconds in the pocket, which is third-highest in the league. Injuries in the secondary, with starters Kader Kohou (nickel cornerback) and Javon Holland (safety) labeled as out and doubtful respectively, create even more vulnerabilities for Miami to try and mask.
Bills’ key to success: Ride Josh Allen to victory.
Buffalo Bills’ run offense vs. Miami Dolphins’ run defense
Buffalo’s rushing attack will face a Dolphins run defense that allows an NFL-worst 3.92 yards after contact. Funny enough, Miami is actually the best in the NFL at allowing just .51 yards before contact, which might be an indication that the Dolphins’ defense is loaded with poor tacklers. The Bills average 122.3 rushing yards per game, which is above average in the NFL, and they are an impressive top five in the NFL in EPA per rush at +.08. Buffalo finds success running the ball at a top-10 rate of 44.2% of the time.
Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam is out, which shouldn’t affect the team’s run game too much because they don’t often use him. When Buffalo needs an extra blocker, they usually bring swing offensive lineman Alec Anderson into the game.
Bills’ key to success: Running backs James Cook and Ray Davis should find success with yards after contact and breaking tackles against a suspect Dolphins run defense. Buffalo should run the ball in advantageous situations but also try not to force it.
Miami Dolphins’ pass offense vs. Buffalo Bills’ pass defense
Tua Tagovailoa returns to face the Bills after spending time on Injured Reserve, missing five weeks after he sustained a concussion in action against Buffalo in Week 2. As mentioned above, Tagovailoa returned in Week 8 and led the Dolphins to their best offensive performance of the season, scoring 27 points.
Even though Tagovailoa has only appeared in three games this season, he still has some numbers we can find useful. When Tagovailoa has played, his wide receivers have an average 4.1 yards of separation per pass attempt. But he’s struggled to capitalize on these opportunities, posting a -2.1% completion rate over expected — ninth worst in the NFL. Tagovailoa has thrown for 717 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions this season.
Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 13th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (208.1) and is strong at pressuring the quarterback, averaging a 2.62 seconds to pressure opposing QBs. However, they allow the fifth-highest separation percentage in coverage (3.9 yards). Miami’s wide receivers should find room to operate, but having Christian Benford in the lineup will be crucial for Buffalo’s pass defense.
Bills’ key to success: As usual, take away Tagovailoa’s first read and generate pressure on him. As a Dolphin, Tyreek Hill has never eclipsed 100 receiving yards against Buffalo — don’t let it happen in Week 8.
Miami Dolphins’ run offense vs. Buffalo Bills’ run defense
Despite ranking ninth in rushing yards per game (131.7), Miami’s ground game has been inefficient. They’re 31st in EPA per rush at -.23 and they also lead the league in getting “stuffed” at the line, with 23% of runs failing to gain yards. Miami tends to run outside, with 62% of their rushes directed to the perimeter. They also see the sixth-fewest stacked boxes, which means teams are more worried about defending their wide receivers. The Dolphins rank low in yards after contact at 2.75 yards on average, indicating a lack of explosive rushing ability. That’s surprising since their team is filled with explosive running backs in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
The Bills’ run defense is middle of the pack, allowing 120.3 yards per game. However, this number has steadily improved throughout the season. Buffalo is successful in stuffing the run, doing this at an above average rate of 22.5%. The Bills struggle slightly before contact, allowing 1.89 yards on average, but excel in tackling, giving up only 2.93 yards after contact — which is on of the best marks in the NFL. Buffalo has plenty of experience defending the outside run (which the Dolphins like to do), as the outside run makes up 58% of their opponent’s carries.
Bills’ key to success: De’Von Achane found success in Week 2 against the Bills, but it didn’t mean much in the end. He ended up with 96 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry, but he also had seven receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo needs to establish a lead early and make the Dolphins one-dimensional. Miami has proven to be dangerous when they can run play action if their run game is successful.