After opening as -1.5 point favorites, are the odds really stacked against the Bills this Sunday?
Who loves being an underdog more than Bills Mafia? During a week of NFL MVP and fandom discourse more toxic than imaginable — including a Baltimore beat reporter calling back to a time when he labeled Buffalo a “city of losers” (and worse to a Bills fan), and fake Matt Milano bulletin board quotes making the rounds — the actual game is being viewed as a virtual coin flip.
This answer took a MUCH different turn when asking about #Ravens visiting #Bills #NFL #Ravensflock pic.twitter.com/gjyzMePLk0
— Jerry Coleman (@sportswcoleman) January 13, 2025
What are the odds?
The Buffalo Bills opened as -1.5 point favorites when FanDuel Sportsbook lines were initially released, but now it’s the Baltimore Ravens listed as the -1.5-point favorites. As of publishing, 52% of bets and 60% of the money wagered coming in was on the Ravens, according to Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) betting model.
This marks the first time in the Super Bowl era that the Bills have been listed as home underdogs in a playoff game. The only other instance when Buffalo was a home dog came during the AFL days against a Hank Strahm-led Kansas City Chiefs team in 1967 — a game Buffalo (then 3.5-point underdogs) would lose 31-7.
The closest the Bills had come since the invention of the Lombardi Trophy was “The Comeback” game against the Houston Oilers in 1993, where Buffalo was a 2-point favorite. There was also a tie between this past postseason (versus Chiefs) and the last playoff matchup against the Ravens where the Bills were a 2.5-point favorite in each matchup.
Buffalo went undefeated at home during the regular season for the third time in franchise history this season.
Obviously a lot has changed since these teams met back in Week 4 for ESPN Monday Night Football. Buffalo was a slight 2.5-point underdog then. When you account for the typical three points given for home field advantage, it seems the books and public agree that the Ravens are the better team, at least on paper.
The 35-10 loss in Baltimore surely plays a factor, but the Bills get the benefit of having linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, plus nickel cornerback Taron Johnson all available this time around. Additionally, Buffalo now fields an offense that knows itself much better than it did the first month of the season.
NFL playoff history of home underdogs
Since the turn of the century, home underdogs In the playoffs are 24-12-1 versus the spread. This will be just the fourth time a team is a road favorite in the Divisional Round since 2000 per Stathead.
Those road teams are 1-2 against the spread and straight up, with the only winner being the San Francisco 49ers over the Carolina Panthers back in January 2014.
The Bills are 20-17-3 in the Josh Allen era as underdogs, and 5-5 as home underdogs since 2018. However, they have not been favored against at home since the 2020 season finale against the Miami Dolphins where mostly backups played and the Dolphins were vying for a playoff spot.
It’s safe to say this is uncharted territory for the Bills with Josh Allen since 2020.
Baltimore has been favored in three road playoff games in team history, covering the spread in them all — the most recent coming in Tennessee during the 2021 playoffs.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 44-41-1 as a favorite in his career while Josh Allen is 19-14-2 as an underdog. Do you believe the odds are really stacked against the Buffalo this Sunday?