In a matchup dominated by well-documented narratives, the Bills’ motivations are more straightforward
It’s their eighth matchup in the last five seasons, and once again the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will play yet another “Game of the Year” on Sunday — one that carries playoff-seeding implications, legacy narrative boosts, and will paint a picture for both coaching staffs about how they stack up as championship contenders.
Buffalo has won the last three regular-season matchups while Kansas City has of course has eliminated the Bills in the playoffs three times in four seasons. With a game good enough to have the NFL Today team fly out to be on sight at Highmark Stadium, it makes sense to dive in and makes sense of what truly matters in this clash of AFC heavyweights.
The gist of Bills vs. Chiefs, Round 8
Kansas City is an “imperfect” 9-0 on the season, winning last week on a miraculous blocked field goal as time expired — and they hold the lowest point differential (+58) of any 9-0 team in league history. The Chiefs enter Sunday as only the fourth 9-0 or better team to be an underdog (Bills -2.5). If Kansas City was any other team they’d be on heavy fraud watch, but because of their deserved pedigree every close win is another way for head coach Andy Reid to set KC up for an easier path in the playoffs.
Buffalo has flipped their luck from last year, overcoming turnovers and mistakes to win games where they don’t play their best football — a stark contract to 2023’s team that was 5-5 through 11 games, which ultimately led to Ken Dorsey’s dismissal. The Bills’ biggest detractors would say “they can’t beat the good teams” and that would be a fair assessment. Buffalo’s biggest win of the season so far has been against the Arizona Cardinals. Both of Buffalo’s losses were in games featuring other AFC playoff teams, so a win this week would quiet the notion that the Bills only feast on the league’s bottom feeders.
Bills vs. Chiefs: Meat and potatoes
Injuries will continue to hamper both offenses, with the Chiefs still without star running back Isaiah Pacheco and wide receiver Rashee Rice (out for the season), and the Bills without wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid, and possibly missing both wide receiver Amari Cooper and right tackle Spencer Brown.
In a game highlighted by high-octane quarterbacks, the true battle lies in the trenches where the Bills will try and solve the Chris Jones problem and the Chiefs will try to hide their struggling left tackle.
Chris Jones is Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) top-rated pass rusher from the D-line position. He’s been a wrecking ball despite being double teamed at the highest rate in the league. Down two reliable weapons, I expect Joe Brady to muddy this game up and go with a heavy personnel in neutral situations. Buffalo is tied for the highest EPA per rush versus a stacked box (8+ defenders), while Kansas City stuffs runs with a stacked box at the sixth-highest rate in the league.
On the other side of the ball, it’s going to be death by a million paper cuts against a KC offense that loves to convert on third down. The Chiefs rank 18th in EPA per play on both first and second down, but they are the NFL’s best third-down offense. Despite only playing nine games, Kansas City has the second-most 3rd & Short (1-2 yards) situations faced and every fourth down they’ve faced (on offense) has been two yards or shorter.
This will be a game of mental fortitude and discipline for Buffalo’s defense. Despite allowing running backs Devon Achane and Jonathon Taylor to put up good fantasy numbers the last two weeks, the Bills’ rush defense is the seventh-most effective according to PFF’s EPA and is above average on third downs.
With both teams banged up and a lot of season left to play, I expect a smash-mouth football game where field position and time of possession both play bigger roles than in any prior matchup in recent series history.
Bills vs. Chiefs: Legacy and long-term implications
Many voices from within Bills Mafia have declared that Sunday means little to nothing because we’ve seen Buffalo conquer the Chiefs in the regular season before to no avail once the postseason begins. I’m not convinced by that argument, as the scope for this game lies beyond these two teams meeting in January yet again.
The Bills have so much more to lose from this single game than the Chiefs do in terms of optics and the conference standings. ESPN analytics gives the Bills a 19% chance at the AFC one seed going into Week 11, and that number jumps to 33% with a win but plummets to 2% with a loss.
Buffalo could win Sunday and still easily fail to claim the one seed because, as we’ve seen in the NFL, anything can happen. But making Kansas City sweat it out for 18 weeks is a better setup than allowing the Chiefs to toy with an undefeated season while the Bills battle the Baltimore Ravens / Pittsburgh Steelers / Houston Texans for the two seed.
Then there’s Josh Allen’s NFL MVP case, which isn’t something the team or Allen himself will tell you matters — but his case for the hardware lives and dies with this game. A rivalry that’s been conveniently marketed as the new Brady vs. Manning will seem odd in the history books if Allen comes and goes without a single MVP on his mantle.
Allen has been equally efficient to his previous seasons but 2024 has finally given him a few breaks. He’s been saddled with just one heartbreaking loss to this point, and being responsible for less turnovers has kept him right with quarterback Lamar Jackson for the award. A win here, down arguably his two most important pass catchers, makes Allen’s chances realistic heading into the final stretch.
Over the last four seasons, something has gone horribly wrong for the Bills, whether it’s severe injuries, untimely mistakes, or questionable coaching decisions. Buffalo can’t kill their playoff demons this weekend, but they can make it possible for the Super Bowl to go through Highmark Stadium and make a tough end to the regular season increasingly more meaningful while setting a path for Allen to get the flowers he deserves. That’s about as good as it gets for a Week 11 game.