Is there another possible advantage for the Bills?
In a recent look at the Kansas City Chiefs, I noted some surprising facts about their defense and went into some possible advantages for the Buffalo Bills. Knowing I wanted to get a few GIFs, I left the broader conversation on one possible advantage for the Bills until now.
Quarterback Josh Allen’s penchant for escaping trouble looks to be quite the asset this Sunday. Let’s take a look.
Stats and Facts
Kansas City likes to blitz. Scratch that. They love to blitz! The Chiefs bring extra pass rushers 34.5% of the time, which is third in the NFL. Their blitz rate doesn’t quite match up with their success rate though.
Their sack rate sits at 6.55%, which is 25th in the league. Remember my rule of four. Teams in the top and bottom eight are considered outside average and the top/bottom four are significantly so. This means that Kansas City has a drastically high blitz rate to produce a statistically below-average result on sacks.
Being fair to KC, they do have the highest quarterback knockdown rate in the league, which accounts for hits to the QB after the pass is thrown in addition to sacks. They’re 11th in hurry rate and 10th in pressure rate — which combines hurries, sacks, and knockdowns.
If you put all of this data together it means the Chiefs aren’t bad at getting to the quarterback, they’re just not special either. If you don’t mind me piling on, it’s true for all teams that sacks can come in bunches, but for KC that’s especially true in 2024. Five of their sacks came in one game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas City has 19 total, meaning that game accounts for over a quarter of their total.
Do you know who is special? The Bills when it comes to avoiding sacks. At a 4.3% sack rate, only the Green Bay Packers are better. How much better? The Bills are more accurately listed at 4.305%. Adding those extra digits to compare, Green Bay is at 4.301%.
Kansas City Chiefs defensive film
Play 1 — George Karlaftis
Defensive end George Karlaftis can’t be taken lightly despite what I said above. Here he shows off a great long-arm approach, which keeps his jersey clean (from being grabbed) and allows him to disengage to make the sack. Watching all the Chiefs’ sacks so far this season, it’s clear Karlaftis brings some speed and finesse to their game and does have the ability to take over some one-on-ones.
Play 2 — Chris Jones
Defensive tackle Chris Jones has been very complimentary of the wings here in Western New York recently, so it’s okay to like him a little bit… just not on Sunday. I don’t think Jones needs much introduction, but I wanted to show this particular sack as the hand-fighting to clear the arms is a lot of fun to watch. You know what would make it even more fun to watch? They say absence makes the heart grow fonder, so if this type of skill could take a break for about a week (and then again in the playoffs) I would surely appreciate Jones’ skill that much more.
Play 3 — Pretty much everyone
Knowing the exact blitz rate is great, but watching the film would leave you with a similar conclusion that the Chiefs to blitz. I didn’t get the impression that Kansas City was too threatened by quarterback Gardner Minshew and felt comfortable sending pretty much the entire team after him. Here it worked well. Linebacker Drue Tranquill gets the official credit, but there’s plenty of teamwork going on.
Play 4 — Pretty much everyone again
Credit to linebacker Nick Bolton who gets the hit on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, but also credit the seven-man rush for being way too much for the Denver Broncos and Nix who ran backwards almost 20 yards (twice actually).
The Final Straw
We’ve seen Josh Allen pull what Bo Nix did, so let’s start there. Current Allen has played much more cerebral and hopefully we won’t see that, but that’s a key to success here. The Chiefs will likely have some success, so giving them nothing for free is huge.
Buffalo has assets that should help for this game. Allen is of course the first one. Avoiding sacks, but also playing smart and fast are boxes he’s checked this year. The offensive line has been playing well this year, and the Bills haven’t been shy about bringing a sixth lineman out, even on passing downs. While Kansas City’s run defense has been good, running backs James Cook and Ray Davis are also major positives for Buffalo.
The games are played for a reason, but the on-paper look has some comforting signs.