We take a deep dive to explore the common narrative
Buffalo Bills fans understand that while there’s certainly still time for tweaks, we’re far enough into the 2024 NFL season where team identities have largely shaken out. That should make for a fantastic Week 11 game at Highmark Stadium with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Despite arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs’ identity this year has seemingly focused on their defense. That’s for good reason. Kansas City’s scoring output hasn’t been dismal by any means (11th in NFL at 24.3 points per game). However, they’ve only scored 30 points once so far and only have one win that was by more than one score under their belt. The defense is tied for fifth best in points per game allowing 17.9, and are 4th best in yards allowed (289.9).
This is all part of the common narrative for the Chiefs, though. What exactly do I have to share with you all that might come as a surprise? Let’s dive in as our Bills prepare to host the reigning Super Bowl champions on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs’ per-drive stats tell a different tale
For any newcomers, you should know I’m a huge fan of per-drive metrics as these tend to correlate better with efficiency and each drive represents one “opportunity” — which is a clean way of looking at things. What’s the average result “per opportunity,” in other words.
Per opportunity, the Chiefs allow 1.90 points. That’s 12th in the NFL. That’s not bad. In fact it’s average, according to my rule of four. That said, it’s a far cry from fifth-best, which would be good, bordering on elite per my rule.
When it comes to yards, the gap becomes even larger. Per-game you may recall they rate fourth-best in the NFL. Per-drive they fall to 15th. Still average, but drifting closer to true middle and not elite as the per-game metric would suggest.
If you’re a math nerd like me, an obvious hypothesis comes to mind when displaying the significant disparity between per-game numbers and per-drive figures. Kansas City doesn’t allow many drives. Put differently, an average team on a per-drive basis will look really good on a per-game analysis by limiting the number of drives each game. That hypothesis is the correct one.
The Chiefs have faced 87 drives this season, which is lowest in the NFL. This ranges all the way up to 118 drives (Houston Texans) with the average right around 100. This means Kansas City has had to deal with about two fewer opponent opportunities per game.
Before we look at the “why” for a minute, let’s throw out a few more drive metrics to drive some conversation below.
- Opponent drives usually take 2:49 off the clock, 19th in the NFL, which is again pretty average.
- KC allows 6.1 plays per drive (20th)
- KC allows a score on 35.6% of drives (13th)
- KC creates a turnover on 9.2% of drives (19th)
What’s the secret to the Chiefs’ defensive success?
As it turns out, perhaps the offense is the star of the show after all. I’ll throw out some other stats here for fun, but one stat is all you need to understand what’s artificially propping up the defensive rankings. Kansas City has the number-one time of possession in the NFL. Per-game they hold on to the ball for an average of 33:01. That’s a six-minute advantage compared to their opponent. Now go back up real quick and take a look at the average duration of opponent drives again.
Yes, time of possession is costing opponents about two drives per game.
Comparing per-game to per-drive stats on offense has the opposite result. While 11th in points per game, they’re seventh in points per drive (2.42). They average 35.1 yard per drive, good for sixth best (10th best per game). Kansas City has the best third-down conversion rate in the NFL at 52%.
Per Play
For the second time this season I’m putting out the disclaimer that it’s not my intent to call the defense a paper tiger. The ultimate test of efficiency would be per-play metrics, which the Chiefs fare well with.
They allow the seventh-lowest yards per play, with teams gaining 5.08 on average. Their 3.65 yards-per-rush-allowed is in rarified air (Second-best in league). Passing falls off a bit with the 14th-best rating.
My point is that I’m not ready to crown their defense just yet. They’re 21st in the league for interception rate as a for instance (1.72%). They’re even worse with sack rate. Their 6.55% rate is 25th in the league, which qualifies as “bad” under my rule of four. They allow third-down conversions about 38% of the time (19th in the league).
Buffalo Bills comparisons
For the sake of conversation, let’s discuss some of the same measures for Buffalo to see if the Bills have any advantages. Per drive, Buffalo holds the ball for 2:55, which is eighth-best in the league. Per game, the Bills are 18th in time of possession (the defensive stats listed below will hold the answer to that dilemma).
The Bills have:
- Third highest points per drive (2.73)
- Ninth-best yards per drive (33.8)
- A 49% scoring rate per drive (4th best)
- A 5.9% turnover rate (4th best)
- The 14th-best conversion rate on third downs (27.7%) which has been improving of late
- Rapid-fire rankings that include; ninth-best yards per play, seventh-best interception rate, second-best sack rate
Before I hit my final summary below, a short conclusion from the above is that the Bills are well-prepared to take advantage of drives when they have the ball. There’s no reason to suspect that Kansas City will shut down Buffalo’s opportunities.
The trick may lie in the Bills’ defense finding a way to get an extra drive or two out of this game. If they can force Mahomes and friends off the field once or twice better than the average, things should go well for the Bills. What do the stats say about that?
The absolute biggest problem I see is that Buffalo’s defense allows teams to average 2:57 time of possession, which is 25th in the league. Uh oh. They’re a little better in yards per drive with the 21st ranked unit.
Ready for some good news? Buffalo’s defense is actually ranked four spots ahead of KC’s vaunted defense when it comes to points per drive. The Bills allow 1.8 on average, which is eighth-best. They’re 10th-best in drives ending in a score and the fourth-best team creating turnovers.
That last one sounds like wishful thinking to some degree, right? After all, Kansas City has sustained drives quite well. Despite their fantastic time of possession, the Chiefs have turned the football over on 13.5% of drives. That’s the eighth worst.
The Final Straw
The word of the day for this game will likely be “methodical.” That applies to both sides of the ball for KC. Their methodical offense has managed to horde the ball like a greedy dragon this season. This has led to their offense scoring at a better-than-expected rate and creating significantly fewer opportunities for opponents to respond.
That said, this has created a fair bit of illusion when it comes to the defense. The deeper dive (but not so deep as to unearth a Balrog) shows that opponents have been able to sustain drives against what actually looks like an average defense.
This very well could lead to the result I think our palantirs showed us to begin with. Whoever has the ball last will win. That said, Buffalo can increase their chances of success with one key advantage, though it tends to be a chaotic one.
Very few teams have been better at creating extra drives via turnovers than Buffalo. That also happens to be Kansas City’s biggest flaw on offense. If we can enlist a wizard to help things out too, I don’t see how any Bills fan says “no” either.