Spots 2 – 5 could all change hands after this weekend, but let’s hope not!
It’s Chiefs Week, Bills Mafia! If you were to ask quarterback Josh Allen, he’d tell you that this is the most important game on the Bills’ schedule — but not because of the opponent, simply because it’s the next one. We aren’t going to ask him, because every Buffalo Bills fan knows that there’s so much at stake anytime Buffalo and Kansas City meet on the gridiron.
The chance to capture the one seed and a playoff bye hinges on the outcome of this week’s game in Orchard Park, NY. And, while being the two-seed isn’t a terrible spot to enter the playoffs, a Bills loss and a win by the Pittsburgh Steelers puts that in jeopardy as well. Plus, there’s bragging rights — the whole “Mahomes vs. Allen” argument, the “Reid vs. McDermott” saga, the “Buffalo vs. the Refs” drama — it will all be talked about leading up to the game, during the game, and for days after the game.
But despite all of it, there are 13 other games being played in Week 11, and 11 of those have the possibility of affecting Buffalo’s final seeding at the end of Week 18.
Here’s a look at the current AFC standings as we enter Week 11
AFC East
- Buffalo Bills (8-2)
- Miami Dolphins (3-6)
- New York Jets (3-7)
- New England Patriots (3-7)
Complete AFC Playoff Picture
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-6, 3-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6, 2-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
11. New York Jets (3-7, 2-1 in NE common games)
12. New England Patriots (3-7, 0-3 in NYJ common games)
13. Cleveland Browns (2-7, 2-3 AFC)
14. Tennessee Titans (2-7, 2-4 AFC)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 2-5 AFC)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
In regard to playoff contenders, Baltimore and Houston hold tiebreakers over Buffalo, and, of course, the tie breaker with the number-one-seeded Chiefs is up for grabs this week. The Bills do not face off against the Steelers, Chargers, or Broncos before the end of the regular season. While it’s unlikely that Denver or Los Angeles usurp the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and just as unlikely that the Bills lose their stronghold on top of the AFC East, the possibility is still mathematically there.
So, now that we know what our priorities are, let’s look at what games are important to the future fate of the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo Bills (8-2) over Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)
As members of Bills Mafia we all know how important bragging rights are when Allen and company end up with a better score than the Chiefs. Add in the fact that Kansas City has yet to lose a game in 2024, and a win would be that much sweeter. And, if that’s not enough, should Buffalo win, there would only be one game between the top two AFC teams with the Bills holding the tie breaker.
It goes without saying, but … Go Bills!
AFC EAST
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) over Miami Dolphins (3-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
Sure, the Dolphins winning would improve the Bills’ Strength of Victory (SOV) (and because of that, it wouldn’t be terrible if they won on Sunday). But a Buffalo win and a Miami loss would mean that the Dolphins, who some analysts predicted would win the division this year, would be one loss away from being eliminated as a division champion contender.
Los Angeles Rams (4-5) over New England Patriots (3-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Buffalo has yet to play either of these teams — they will in a few weeks— so with that in mind, this is just like the Miami game above. A Bills win, a Patriots loss, and then another loss next week while Buffalo is on bye and New England is all but out the door of the AFC East — officially.
Indianapolis Colts (4-6) over New York Jets (3-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
The Bills beat both the Jets and the Colts, but, with one more game against New York at the end of the season, that win could get negated should the Jets pull off an upset in Buffalo in December. Of course, the Colts beat the Steelers, and the Bills beat the Colts, so when it comes to common games Buffalo gets a point there. But the Jets are another team that was picked to be at the top of the AFC East back in the summer and handing them their exit slip early would be nice. Just like the two teams above — that could happen the first weekend in December if all goes right.
Remaining AFC Games
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) over Detroit Lions (8-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
The Bills need to do everything they can to avoid ending up with the same number of wins and losses as any other AFC team, but should they find themselves there with the Pittsburgh Steelers, they need the strongest SOV score they can get — and so far, the one they have isn’t too high. The Jaguars winning will make that happen immediately. The Bills will face the Lions in Week 15, but as that game is yet to be played, it’s best to root for what we know.
New Orleans Saints (3-7) over Cleveland Browns (2-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Buffalo doesn’t play either of these teams, but the Steelers will play the Browns. While Cleveland has very few wins, the more Ls the merrier in terms of Strength of Schedule (SOS) (and possible, although not probable, SOV) for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) over Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
I know, all we’ve done is talk about pushing the Steelers down. But here’s the problem: if the Ravens end up tied with the Bills, they win the better seed. There is zero chance that Buffalo comes out on top with a Baltimore win. Head-to-head games are the number-one tiebreaker, so until Baltimore is safely a few games behind the Bills, keep rooting for their opponent. In this week’s case, at least Buffalo has a chance at breaking a tie with the Steelers, so a wild card spot it needs to be for the Ravens.
Tennessee Titans (2-7) over Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
We’re back to talking about tying with Pittsburgh. Improve Buffalo’s SOV, improve their chances of being a seed better than the Steelers. The more wins teams that the Bills beat have, the better Buffalo looks. In addition, the Bills have a pick in the 2025 NFL Draft that used to belong to the Vikings (obtained through the Stefon Diggs trade) — losses for Minnesota could make that pick worth just a little bit more. So, as much as it kills us to say it, Titan Up this weekend.
Denver Broncos (5-5) over Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST (FOX)
The Steelers beat both of these teams, and the Bills won’t play either. However, the Broncos have the seventh and final playoff spot right now. Things could get a lot more interesting at the bottom of the wild card race as both the Colts and the Bengals are trying to steal this spot from Denver. In all honesty, trying to pick a winner here will start looking more like “who do we want to match up with” in the playoffs, but for now, keeping it simple — and keeping the Bengals out of the playoffs just because we are allowed to be petty — is how we are going with this one.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) over Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)
Are you tired of talking about the Steelers? Sorry, we have one more. Pittsburgh beat the Chargers. Yes, they get two chances to beat the Bengals in the last month of the season, but two things to remember: (1) we aren’t dealing with the unknown and Cincinnati is gaining momentum so those aren’t guaranteed wins for the Steelers, and (2) of these two teams, only the Chargers have a winning record (important for SOV scores).
Dallas Cowboys (3-6) over Houston Texans (6-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Like with the Ravens, the Bills are out of luck if they end up in a tie with the Texans at the end of the regular season. If Houston’s problem is having less wins than Buffalo when Week 18 closes, it wouldn’t be a bad thing.
NFC Games that impact the Bills
Seattle Seahawks (4-5) over San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST (FOX)
The Bills had a great game in Seattle three weeks ago, coming home with a 31-10 win. Of course, that started the Seahawks on a losing skid that now has them under .500. Now Buffalo has beaten only one team with a winning record (the Arizona Cardinals). Sure, they play the 49ers after the bye, but a win by Seattle this week, then wins by both teams next week and Buffalo has a win over two winning teams with the chance to make it three in Week 12.
Games that don’t matter to Buffalo Bills
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Thursday 7:15 p.m. EST (Prime Video)
- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, Sunday 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
NFL Teams on Bye
- Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
- Carolina Panthers (3-7)
- New York Giants (2-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
If the Bills win on Sunday, nothing happens — except that Bills Mafia gets bragging rights and a whole bunch of fun social media posts. The Bye Week will be long, but not miserable, and Buffalo will be oh-so-close to clinching that fifth AFC East crown. But if they lose, the time between the end of Week 11 and the start of Week 13 is going to seem like a month of Sundays — all full of football talk, but nothing we want to hear.
So, let’s go with how the AFC Playoff Picture will look if everything goes Buffalo’s way in Week 11.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-4)
7. Denver Broncos (6-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 4-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6, 3-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-7)
11. New York Jets (3-8, 2-1 in NE common games)
12. New England Patriots (3-8, 0-3 in NYJ common games)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-7, 2-4 AFC)
14. Las Vegas Raiders (3-7, 2-5 AFC)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
16. Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to keep tabs on during Week 11.
Go Bills!