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Buffalo Sports News

Buffalo Bills Week 16 Rooting Interests: Things are much clearer now

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San Francisco 49ers v Buffalo Bills
Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

There are really only three games that will affect the Bills this week, but they have big implications for seeding

Well, Week 15 was much more fun than Week 14. Being on the greater end of the league’s highest-scoring game will make that happen. Adding to the Buffalo Bills’ 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions was the fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers lost, creating a little space between the two teams. Unfortunately, the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t cooperate, and their win keeps them two games ahead of the Bills in the race for the AFC’s number one seed.

This week, we can stop looking at Strength of Victory (SOV) when choosing which teams to root for. (I know we’re all happy about that!) Conference record is two steps ahead of SOV in the NFL’s list of ways to break a tie in the standings and it’s the most likely way that the league would be used to determine which team gets the better seed if the Bills and Steelers should find themselves in a tie after Week 18.

Here’s what we know:

  • The Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East and will have one of the top four seeds.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West and will have one of the top three seeds. With only one loss so far, the worst they could do would be four losses for the year. There is already a division winner with five losses, so the Chiefs will not fall to the four seed regardless of what happens.
  • The Houston Texans have won the AFC South and will have a seed somewhere between two and four. With only 9 wins, the best they could hope for is 12 wins. The Chiefs have 13 wins right now, so Houston cannot overtake them for the one seed.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have secured a playoff seed, but with only one game separating them from the Baltimore Ravens, the division title is not theirs yet.

What does this mean for the Bills?

  • The one seed is still in play and the AFC playoffs could run through Orchard Park, NY. But in order for that to happen, the Bills need to win the remainder of their games, and the Chiefs have to lose at least two. Obviously, we’ll be rooting for whoever is playing against Kansas City. Of course, the Bills could lose one game if the Chiefs were to lose all three of their remaining games — but let’s just go for the win.
  • The Bills are currently sitting in the two-seed spot. If they lose this weekend and the Chiefs win, they can’t get the one seed. But, if they win this weekend and the Texans lose they can’t fall to four.
  • If the Ravens beat the Steelers, they will find themselves tied at the top of the AFC North. While a tie with the Ravens is not how Buffalo wants to end the season (since they would lose the tiebreaker due to Baltimore’s win back in Week 4), the AFC North leaders would be two games behind Buffalo.
  • No other games matter for the Bills — other than looking at potential first-round playoff opponents or keeping an eye on the 2025 NFL Draft order.

Now that we know what we are looking for, let’s look at who to root for this weekend.

Games with Playoff Seeding Implications for Buffalo

  • Houston Texans (9-5) over Kansas City Chiefs (13-1), Saturday, 1 p.m. EST (NBC)
  • Baltimore Ravens (9-5) over Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4), 4 p.m. EST (FOX)
  • Buffalo Bills (11-3) over New England Patriots (3-11), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)

Games to watch for Buffalo’s potential playoff opponents

If the Chargers win and the Colts, Bengals, and Dolphins, the latter three would all be eliminated from the playoffs. This would make Weeks 17 and 18 about watching just seven teams. Alternatively, if the Chargers lose, it keeps the door open for the other three — any of which win Week 16 would still be alive.

Games to watch for 2025 NFL Draft order

In all of the above games, we are rooting for the AFC team with the worst record to win and the NFC team with the best record to win. If this were to happen continuously over the next three weeks, NFC teams would have better draft picks than the AFC teams. This would mean that teams that could stand between Buffalo and the playoffs in future years won’t have the opportunity to snatch as many top prospects off the draft board and will have to find other — possibly more expensive — ways to improve their rosters.

Now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to keep tabs on during Week 16 — Go Bills!