The Bills are locked in, but their opponent for Super Wild Card Weekend is not.
Welcome to Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season, where most of the AFC doesn’t really care what happens. For the past four months we have spent time each week analyzing all of the games in both conferences looking for how they would impact the Buffalo Bills’ postseason chances. Now here we are with the Bills locked in as the two seed and just waiting to find out who Buffalo will play next weekend when the NFL Playoffs kick off with Super Wild Card Weekend.
So, with nothing that happens over the next two days changing the fact that the Bills will play at home next weekend and, should they win that game, the week after, that makes Week 18’s rooting interests more of a “choose your own adventure” kind of thing. Who you choose to root for this weekend is going to be all based on which team you would like to see visit Highmark Stadium next weekend. To help you choose, here’s a look at what we know and what possibilities still exist for Buffalo’s potential opponents.
What we know: The Kansas City Chiefs are the number-one seed. The Buffalo Bills are the number-two seed. The Houston Texans are the number-four seed. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have both clinched a playoff spot, but which will be crowned the AFC North champion is still to be decided this weekend. The Los Angeles Chargers have clinched a playoff spot as well and currently sit in the conference’s number six spot — but they could move up (thought not down) depending on this weekend’s games. The seventh, and final, spot in the AFC is still up for grabs with the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals all trying to claw their way in — and those are the games all of Bills Mafia will be watching this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5), Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), Saturday, 8 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Let’s start with looking at the race between the Steelers and the Ravens. Right now, the Ravens have the three seed and the Steelers have the five seed. If Baltimore wins this afternoon, the race is over and they will be crowned division champions. If that happens and the Ravens win their playoff game next week (against either the Steelers or the Chargers — but we will talk about that in a minute), then they would be the Bills’ second playoff opponent. A rematch of Week 4’s disaster in Baltimore — but this time it would take place in Orchard Park, NY.
But, should the Ravens somehow manage to lose their final home game to the Cleveland Browns and the Steelers beat the Bengals later tonight, then they would swap spots in the final AFC standings. What’s more is that the Chargers would then be locked into the six seed before they even play on Sunday due to a Week 12 head-to-head loss with the Ravens.
That would mean that the Steelers would play the Chargers while Baltimore would travel to Houston for the first round of the playoffs. If the Steelers win that game, they come to Buffalo in round two, but if the Chargers were to win, then the winner of the Ravens/Texans game would end up being the Bills’ second-round opponents.
So, all that to say — how do you want to root? Do you want to all but guarantee the Ravens are in Buffalo for the Divisional Round? Or do you want to leave it to chance next week and root for the upset this week?
But, before any of that matters, the question is who will the Bills play next weekend? The seven seed is the answer, however we don’t know which team that will be. Here’s a look at what it would take for each of three possible teams be the correct answer to the “fill in the blank” piece of the AFC Playoff puzzle.
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) at Denver Broncos (9-7), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)
This one is easy. All the Broncos have to do is win. Their opponent: the Kansas City Chiefs. Sounds impossible, right? Except that the Chiefs will not be playing as many of their starters — including quarterback Patrick Mahomes — as they can legally get away with. Head coach Andy Reid has decided that his players need a two-week bye. Or, more realistically, he doesn’t want to risk injuries in a game that doesn’t matter.
While, by rule, you can’t sit all of your starters, the Chiefs did produce a lengthy injury list that had four players ruled out (including running back Isaiah Pacheco) and nine more as doubtful (including Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and defensive tackle Chris Jones). To add to the positive outcome chances for the Broncos, they did come within a missed field goal of being the first team to beat the Chiefs this season back in Week 10 — when Kansas City was playing to win and fielded their starters.
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (FOX)
For the Dolphins to jump in and grab the seven seed, they need the Broncos to lose. But they also need to beat the New York Jets. If those two things happen, Miami and Denver would have identical records, but the Dolphins already have a one-game-better conference record than the Broncos, and Sunday’s results would make that two.
The challenge is that Miami will be playing without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins’ starting quarterback is dealing with what head coach Mike McDaniel said was a “unique hip injury” and that the team is still waiting for information on when it will be “safe” for him to return to play.
Without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are 2-4 this season (their wins being over the lowly Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots). While Miami hasn’t ruled the quarterback out quite yet, he is listed as doubtful, and McDaniel’s comments weren’t promising.
While the Jets have only won four games this season, this could be quarterback Aaron Rodgers last game in the green and white — or at all — the 41-year-old Rodgers said he will think about his future during the offseason (we’ve heard this one before, but he promises — no darkness retreat this time).
No one wants their final memory to be a losing one. Plus, Rodgers is still on the hunt for his 500th career passing touchdown. The Jets aren’t going to just give this game to the Dolphins.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EST (ESPN)
The Bengals will play before either the Broncos or the Dolphins. They will know Saturday night if they should gather together and watch Sunday’s games while hoping for the help they need — much like the Bills stood in the locker room seven years ago while watching Cincinnati give them the nod to get a backdoor playoff berth — or if they should use the afternoon to start clearing their lockers.
For Cincinnati, they have to start the weekend off by beating the Steelers. Then they need both the Broncos and the Dolphins to lose. The Bengals’ 30-24 win over Denver last week gives them the tiebreaker needed to jump into the seven-seed spot if all the scores fall their way this weekend.
One more Playoff Scenario
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12), Sunday 4:35 p.m. EST (CBS)
If the Ravens win they are the three seed. They will play the six seed next week. Right now, that’s the Los Angeles Chargers. But, if the Steelers lose and the Chargers win, Los Angeles gets the five spot and Pittsburgh will have to travel to Baltimore next week.
Buffalo plays the highest-seeded team left standing during the divisional round. So, if keeping the Ravens out of Orchard Park, NY is key, which of these teams is likely to beat them? That’s the team you would want to end up sixth. If the sixth seed wins, they would go to Kansas City while the winner of Houston versus the fifth-seed would head to Buffalo (of course this is all assuming the Bills are not losing in the Wild Card round).
All the other game around the NFL
No other games matter as far as playoff opponents for the Bills. The only thing worth keeping an eye on is who will get what position in this year’s NFL Draft. If you really want to pick a team to root for, choose for lower-seeded AFC teams to win and NFC teams to lose. The more NFC teams with poor records, the less AFC teams getting top 10 picks in the draft.
So, let’s hear it Bills Mafia: Who are you rooting for this week? What opponent are you hoping to see at Highmark Stadium next weekend? What’s your preferred path to the Super Bowl for the Buffalo Bills?