The Bills can help themselves and secure their move up one spot in the AFC. But with help, Buffalo can move up two spots by the end of the weekend.
Week 8 was a good weekend of football for Buffalo Bills fans. The Bills pulled off a very convincing win over an opponent with, at the time, a winning record. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets continued to slide. The New England Patriots picked up a win, but it was at the cost of the Jets, and now Buffalo has almost as many wins as the rest of their division combined.
Not only that, the two teams holding head-to-head tie breakers above them in the AFC standings — the ones that will determine who gets homefield in the playoffs come January — lost, bumping one of them out of the top four.
At the conclusion of last weekends games, Buffalo hadn’t moved up in the standings, but they gained control over whether they get to slide up a spot this week or not.
Then the New York Jets and Houston Texans kicked off Week 9 with a Thursday Night Football date. As challenging at it may have been, rooting for a Jets win was in the best interests of Bills Mafia. And somehow, the Jets pulled it off — and convincingly.
With the Texans losing, that moved the Bills up to third in the AFC, behind the Kansas City Chiefs (1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2). It
Here’s a look at the current AFC standings as we enter Week 9
AFC EAST
- Buffalo Bills (6-2)
- New York Jets (3-6)
- Miami Dolphins (2-5)
- New England Patriots (2-6)
Complete AFC Playoff Picture
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 4-1 in AFC)
- Buffalo Bills (6-2, 4-2 in AFC)
- Houston Texans (6-3, 5-1 in AFC)
- Baltimore Ravens (5-3, 2-2 in AFC)
- Denver Broncos (5-3, 2-3 in AFC)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
- New York Jets (3-6)
- Miami Dolphins (2-5)
- Cleveland Browns (2-6, 2-2 in AFC)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-6, 2-4 in AFC,)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6, win over NEP)
- New England Patriots (2-6, win over NYJ)
- Tennessee Titans (1-6)
If you need a refresher on how the NFL breaks ties in standings, you can read last week’s update here. But here’s the quick version: head-to-head, wins/losses in division, wins/losses in common games, wins/losses in conference, strength of victory, strength of schedule … and on and on for five more scenarios until they do the most unscientific thing they could have come up with — toss a coin. Let’s hope it never actually gets to that.
On that note, in trying not to rely on a coin toss, let’s look at what games can affect Buffalo’s place in the standings this week.
Buffalo Bills (6-2) over Miami Dolphins (2-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
Not that there’s ever a need to know why Bills Mafia wants to “Squish the Fish,” but just in case — here’s what winning on Sunday does for Buffalo. A win is a sweep of the now-third-place team in the division. Prior to the Jets’ early Week 9 win, Miami was only in second place due to having an early bye. But with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back, they are poised to make a run at more wins.
Making sure that you hold the most important tiebreaker — head-to-head — is always the best. The win would also increase Buffalo’s lead in the division to 4+ over every other team, meaning that they could lock up their fifth straight AFC East title before they play another divisional game.
And (yes, there’s more) … if the Bills win, they’ll maintain the third-place spot in the AFC regardless of the outcomes of any other games thanks to the Steelers being inactive this week.
AFC East
New York Jets (2-6) over Houston Texans (6-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT (PRIME)
As stated above it made sense to root for the divisional opponent here, but don’t worry — they’re were basement dwellers so winning won’t hurt the Bills. In fact, if someone would beat the Texans, it would greatly help. Buffalo can’t do anything to move above Houston on their own due to their Week 5 loss in Texas. So, until they are firmly a couple of games behind the Bills, we’ll be rooting for whomever Houston plays.
Tennessee Titans (1-6) over New England Patriots (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
It’s always nice getting to root against a team that used to make the rest of the AFC East look like they were still playing college football. Aside from getting a little too much joy in watching the Patriots fail, the Bills beat the Titans, so we’re looking at that Strength of Victory score again. Buffalo is still dealing with that pesky tie-breaking scenario when it comes to the Pittsburgh Steelers — at least for a couple more weeks.
Remaining AFC games
Denver Broncos (5-2) over Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
The Ravens lost more than a game last week – they lost their fragile hold on the AFC North. That’s good for Buffalo because, like with Houston, the Bills don’t want to end in a tie with them as doing so is a loss. Putting more space between the Ravens and the Steelers is a good thing for the Bills. Should the Ravens pull out the win, they will still trail Pittsburgh (only by a half game), meaning they can’t leapfrog back over Buffalo this week – but building some cushion would be nice.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) over Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Neither of these teams will face the Bills this season. However, the Steelers already beat the Raiders, so a loss by Vegas means lowering Pittsburgh’s SOV score. Yes, they play the Bengals twice — but not yet. And in the NFL, anything is possible so let’s go with what we know. Pittsburgh beat the Raiders, so Cincinnati needs to do the same.
Cleveland Browns (2-6) over Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (CBS)
Again, this is a SOV-score game. With neither the Browns nor the Chargers slated to play Buffalo this season, let’s root against the team that could help Pittsburgh. Same as above — Browns play the Steelers twice… later. Again, let’s go with what we know: Pittsburgh beat Los Angeles, so now the Chargers need losses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) over Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST (CBS)
Are you tired of SOV yet? Well, that’s what this one’s about too. Buffalo beat the Jaguars, and, while they beat the Seahawks last week, that lowered the Seattle’s record to .500, which isn’t great for Buffalo’s SOV — they now, technically, still have no wins against teams with winning records. Jacksonville isn’t going to get a winning record here (and likely isn’t going to win — but hey, this isn’t about odds but about needs), but getting another win on their record does help Buffalo’s SOV.
Indianapolis Colts (4-4) over Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST (FOX)
This one is about Strength of Schedule (SOS) this week and will hopefully convert to SOV after Week 10. If the Colts win, it means Buffalo will play another team with a plus-.500 record — something they’ve only done three times this season (four if you count Week 2 when the Dolphins were 1-0).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST (ESPN)
Any excuse to root against the reigning Super Bowl champions is a good one for Bills Mafia. Right now, the Chiefs remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, and a loss — any loss — before they head to Highmark Stadium in Week 11 (assuming Buffalo keeps winning) means that the Bills could change the entire playoff picture before Thanksgiving.
NFC games that impact the Bills
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) over Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
Back to SOV. Pittsburgh beat the Falcons but lost to the Cowboys. There’s a weird world in which Kansas City and Buffalo forget how to play football for a few weeks and somehow the Denver Broncos become a team to watch (it’s farfetched, but it’s there). The Broncos don’t play Dallas, but they will play Atlanta. So — whether you want to look at it from the reality perspective or the “anything can happen” view, the Falcons losing is the best option to lower the SOV for everyone who does — or could — matter.
New York Giants (2-6) over Washington Commanders (6-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST (FOX)
The Steelers beat both of these teams, so no matter who wins, it helps their SOV score. However, if we have to pick one (sorry Bills Mafia), go with the Giants because they have less wins to start with.
Arizona Cardinals (4-4) over Chicago Bears (4-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST (CBS)
Déjà vu… but we’re back to SOV again. Buffalo beat Arizona and if they win here, they would be one of the only two (see below) teams in the Bills’ win column that have winning records. And Buffalo definitely needs more of those.
Detroit Lions (6-1) over Green Pay Packers (6-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (FOX)
Strength of Schedule — and hopefully victory — is what’s happening in this game. The Bills play the Lions in December, and any time Detroit can win before then, it will help Buffalo. The more teams with winning records on their schedule, the harder their games look on paper and that give Buffalo an edge on other teams that they may find themselves tied with at the end of the season.
Seattle Seahawks (4-4) over Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST (FOX)
Buffalo won very convincingly in Seattle last week. So much so that by the end of the game, it appeared the 12th Man had left the building leaving only Bills Mafia to watch and make as much noise as they could while the Bills cruised to a 31-10 victory. However, the win dropped the Seahawks to .500 on the season and Buffalo still doesn’t have a win over a team with a winning record. Like the Cardinals above, Seattle can help the Bills by becoming a winning team again this week. Buffalo plays the Rams later in the season, so all isn’t lost if Los Angeles comes out on top, but the Seahawks with a win helps SOV — which falls ahead of SOS in the league’s “How to Break a Tie” list.
Games that don’t matter to Buffalo Bills
New Orleans Saints (2-6) at Carolina Panthers (1-7)
NFL Teams on Bye
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
If the Bills win, they move up to third in the AFC, but if all the games go their way, this week, they could make it all the way to second. Here’s a look at what the AFC Playoff Picture would look like, if Buffalo can get all the help this week.
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
- Buffalo Bills (7-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
- Houston Texans (6-3)
- Denver Broncos (6-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)
- Miami Dolphins (2-6)
- Cleveland Browns (3-6)
- New York Jets (3-6)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
- Tennessee Titans (2-6)
- Las Vegas Raisers (2-7)
- New England Patriots (2-7)
So, now we know who to root for, who to root against, and what games to keep tabs on during Week 9.
Go Bills!