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Chiefs vs. Bills Preview: Can Buffalo End K.C.’s 17-0 Dreams?

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Chiefs Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) are already the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, and now they’re chasing immortality in the form of a perfect season. The biggest rival of their dynastic run, the Buffalo Bills (8-2), will attempt to end those dreams Sunday at Highmark Stadium.

Kansas City’s remaining schedule is highly favorable. It’ll be a favorite in all seven of its remaining games, and a heavy favorite in most cases. If the Chiefs beat Buffalo, the biggest threats left will be the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 14), Houston Texans (Week 16) and Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 17).

Meanwhile, the Bills need a win to keep their modest hopes of taking over the AFC’s No. 1 seed alive. Getting a first-round bye in the playoffs would be immensely valuable to Buffalo, which has been forced to overcome a never-ending stream of key injuries since training camp.

The Chiefs and Bills are scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on CBS.

Chiefs-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 11)

X-Factors

Chiefs: WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins is exactly what the doctor ordered for the K.C. offense. The 32-year-old wide receiver has recorded 14 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns in three games with the Chiefs. Both scores came in a 30-24 overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Kansas City’s passing game was sluggish in the early weeks. Injuries to key targets, including Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Rashee Rice, combined with first-round pick Xavier Worthy failing to emerge as a consistent go-to weapon left Patrick Mahomes short on reliable weapons.

Hopkins instantly filled that void. The five-time Pro Bowl selection hasn’t flashed the big-play ability he possessed earlier in his career, but he’s been terrific at getting open on short and intermediate routes. Ten of his 14 catches with the Chiefs have gone for a first down.

The Clemson product faces a tough test Sunday in Bills perimeter cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, which may be the NFL’s best duo. His ability to win one-on-one matchups on the outside will be crucial with Buffalo likely crowding the middle of the field to slow down tight end Travis Kelce.

Hopkins may not see a ton of targets given Buffalo’s defensive structure, but his impact on third down and the red zone will be crucial for Kansas City. Keeping the chains moving to quiet Bills Mafia will improve the Chiefs’ chances of hunting down their 16th straight win dating back to last season.

Bills: DTs Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones

Oliver and Jones were among the league’s most dominant interior defensive line tandems last season. They combined for 18 tackles for loss and 12 sacks, even though Jones was limited to seven appearances because of injury. They controlled the middle of the field most games.

So, it’s been an unwelcome surprise they’ve felt mostly invisible for most games in 2024. They’ve tallied an underwhelming five tackles for loss and three sacks. Their lackluster Pro Football Focus grades—65.6 for Oliver and 60.1 for Jones—suggest the tape matches the poor numbers.

While their struggles led the Bills to sign two depth tackles, Quinton Jefferson and Jordan Phillips, it doesn’t change the situation. Buffalo needs Oliver and Jones to start playing markedly better, especially with linebacker Matt Milano still sidelined by a bicep injury suffered in camp.

Milano’s absence, fellow linebacker Terrel Bernard missing games and the drop off from Oliver and Jones are the reason the Bills have struggled mightily against the run. They rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.9).

The Bills’ defensive tackle twosome must be a constant presence in the Chiefs’ backfield Sunday if Buffalo has any chance of slowing down Mahomes and the rest of the offense.

Key Matchup

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills QB Josh Allen

Although there are plenty of great matchups when these two teams face off, the one everyone loves talking about is the most important. The two best quarterbacks in the league going shot for shot. It hasn’t reached the level of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning quite yet, but it’s trending in that direction.

Here’s a look at how the perennial MVP candidates compare this season:

  • Mahomes: 69.5 percent completion rate; 2,208 passing yards; 167 rushing yards; 13 total TDs; 9 total turnovers
  • Allen: 63.5 percent completion rate; 2,281 passing yards, 261 rushing yards, 21 total TDs; 6 total turnovers

While the overall numbers favor Allen, he’s coming off a poor outing against the Indianapolis Colts. He connected on just 22 of his 37 throws with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He did compile 50 rushing yards and a score on the ground, though.

Their battle Sunday may be more about the turnovers than the touchdowns. Both of these offenses can score at will when clicking on all cylinders. It’s easy to see this game played in the 30s. That’s especially true since the Buffalo weather isn’t forecasted to have an impact.

In those games, it’s often more about one ill-timed turnover than anything else. Protecting the ball will be paramount, especially if it’s a close game in the second half.

Beyond that, the health of each quarterback’s targets could also play a significant role. Neither side is in a perfect situation in that regard:

  • Chiefs: WR Hollywood Brown (IR), WR Rashee Rice (IR), WR Skyy Moore (IR), JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable)
  • Bills: WR Keon Coleman (out), WR Amari Cooper (questionable), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable)

The quarterback who maximizes their limited resources will likely come out on top.

Final Score Prediction: 34-31 Bills

Potential history aside, this game is far more important for the Bills. The Chiefs are probably going to secure the No. 1 seed even with a loss because of their easier schedule. Their overall outlook also won’t change much if they lose to one of the NFL’s best teams on the road.

Meanwhile, Buffalo still has a lot to prove. It deserves credit for taking care of inferior opponents, but Allen and Co. came up short in their two toughest tests to date: road losses against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. In particular, the 35-10 blowout loss to the Ravens was an eye-opener.

The Bills must show, perhaps just as much to themselves as everyone else, they are capable of beating another top-tier contender. Otherwise, it’ll be fair to start asking whether they’re simply taking advantage of a weaker-than-expected division. Another lopsided defeat would also make it tough to take them seriously as a Super Bowl threat.

It’s not perfect timing for the matchup from Buffalo’s perspective. They have 17 players on their injury report this week, including Allen’s aforementioned key targets. To say they’re not at full strength is an understatement, but ultimately nobody cares about excuses.

Expect an aggressive game plan from the Bills. Extra passing on the early downs and taking some chances in 4th-and-short situations. They’ll treat it more like a playoff game than a mid-November regular-season contest, and rightfully so.

Buffalo will either head into its bye a half-game out of the No. 1 seed or it’ll be 8-3 with games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions on the horizon. A losing streak to drop the Bills back toward the AFC pack is plausible.

A desperate Bills team against a Chiefs squad chasing perfection. Get your popcorn ready.

Main Photo Courtesy of Grace Hollars – USA Today Network via Imagn Images

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