Dalton Kincaid is looking to break out as one of the best tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, as he figures to get a massive target share from Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Dalton Kincaid
2023 in Review
Kincaid had a solid rookie season with the Bills, having 91 targets, 73 receptions, 673 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. He was the clear TE1 for the Bills, as Dawson Knox only had 36 targets and 22 receptions. Kincaid did not score double-digit PPR points in any of his first five weeks before missing week six due to injury. When he returned, he had five straight weeks with double-digit fantasy points and seven out of eleven to close out the season. He got off to a slow start but finished strong. He is looking to continue that momentum into his sophomore season.
2024 Projection
The Bills lost their top two wide receivers in the offseason, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Diggs had 160 targets, while Davis had 81 targets. The Bills have to replace 241 targets somehow. They brought in Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins, plus drafted Keon Coleman to join Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is probably the best option, and his target share is going way up this year. The best part for Dalton Kincaid is that he plays with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Josh Allen. Allen has thrown for over 4000 passing yards in each of the last four seasons.
Diggs and Davis had almost 2000 combined receiving yards last season. Kincaid had 673 last season, so it is not crazy to think he could reach 1000 yards this year. George Kittle was the only tight end to top that 1000 last year. If Kincaid can reach that while adding a couple more touchdowns, being the number one overall tight end in fantasy football in 2024 is a real possibility for him. A 100 reception, 1000 receiving yard, and five touchdown season for Kincaid would give him 230 PPR points which would have put him as the TE3 last season, but less than ten points away from being TE1. All of those numbers are attainable in 2024 for the second-year tight end.
Dalton Kincaid routes in his rookie year: 488
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Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football ADP
According to FantasyPros ADP, Kincaid is the TE5 in PPR drafts. He is part of a group in a great range to draft tight ends in. Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, and George Kittle are all going within eight picks of one another as the tight ends three through six. Kincaid is younger and has more upside than Andrews and Kittle. McBride is a similar young tight end, but he is behind Marvin Harrison Jr. on the Cardinals pecking order, while Kincaid is the top target on the Bills.
Kincaid is going almost 20-30 picks after Kelce and LaPorta, but he has the same upside as those two. Passing on Kelce and LaPorta in rounds two and three allows picking elite wide receivers and running backs while waiting until the fifth round to get a solid tight end that can finish top three at the position.
Kincaid is being drafted as a top-five fantasy tight end, which is very reasonable, and he has the ceiling to be a top-three tight end in his second season in the NFL.
Main Photo Credit: Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle
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