Playoff seeding will be key in the final weeks of the NFL regular season. The Bills potential opponents for the Wild Card round are up in the air. The Kansas City Chiefs locked up the AFC’s top spot, however, with a less-than-thrilling 29-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day.
That win ensures the Bills the second or third seed in the AFC. The Steelers or Baltimore Ravens will grab the third seed with the other AFC North squad likely landing the fifth seed and a date with the winner of the AFC South. As of Week 17, that’s still the Houston Texans.
Four playoff teams have already played, but things won’t change much atop the AFC seedings over the weekend. Here’s how things currently sit before after the Christmas games but before the majority of Week 17’s slate:
- Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West Champion, 15-1
- Buffalo Bills, AFC East Champion, 12-3
- Baltimore Ravens, AFC North leader, 11-5
- Houston Texans, AFC South leader, 9-7
- Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC South, 10-6 (clinched playoff spot)
- Los Angeles Chargers, AFC West, 9-6
- Denver Broncos, AFC West, 9-6
- Indianapolis Colts, AFC South, 7-8, On the Bubble
- Miami Dolphins, AFC East, 7-8, On the Bubble
- Cincinnati Bengals, AFC North, 7-8, On the Bubble
The Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals could sneak into the final two spots if the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos lose their final two games. If the playoffs started today, the Bills would likely face one of two teams in the Wild Card round as the second seed – the Chargers or Broncos.
Denver would be headed to Orchard Park if current standings stay the same. Things can still change at the bottom of the playoff standings. Let’s take a look at the three teams that currently round out the bottom of the AFC bracket.
Examining the Bills Potential Opponents In The Wild Card Round Of the Playoffs
The Pittsburgh Steelers Could Fall to Seventh
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers started 3-0 this year. They replaced Justin Fields with Russell Wilson. Things turned around with Wilson under center. He’s a veteran presence under center, has Super Bowl experience, and is a better downfield passer.
Wilson took better advantage of wide receiver George Pickens and his big-play ability. Even with the change, the Steelers rank 25th in the NFL through the air. They beat the lesser teams in the league but beat both Denver and the Chargers in the first quarter of the year.
Russ takes it himself and the @steelers are on the board!#KCvsPIT on @Netflix pic.twitter.com/HfzKsOBA9e
— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2024
When push came to shove, Pittsburgh couldn’t hang with the top dogs in the AFC. After hanging on to an 18-16 win over Baltimore in Week 11, the Steelers crumbled against better teams. They lost their last three games to the Philadelphia Eagles (27-13), Ravens (34-17), and the Chiefs (29-10). They’ll be dancing in January but may trip and fall in the first round.
Bills Wild Card Threats From The AFC West
The Chiefs feasted on the futility of its division for much of the last six years. The Las Vegas Raiders improbably defeated their rivals last year but are one of the worst NFL teams in 2024. The Chargers and Broncos had a chance to beat the Chiefs but the wind blew Kansas City’s way each time.
Despite failing against the division’s leader, the Chargers and Broncos ascended to the realm of respectable in 2024. Jim Harbaugh changed the culture and erased the bone-headed late-game decisions that marred the team under former head coach Brandon Staley.
They still can’t beat many good teams but they face the 3-12 New England Patriots and the hapless Raiders to close out the year. Justin Herbert should be able to lead his squad over both teams, but stranger things have happened. He has a 1-2 record against New England but things are different in 2024.
The offense is unspectacular (ranked 20th or higher in total yards, passing offense, and rushing) but moves the ball when needed. The defense is ranked in the middle of the pack but is opportunistic with sacks (7th, 41) and turnovers (7th, 14 interceptions).
A New Denver Team For a New Decade
Denver also took advantage by hiring Sean Payton and drafting rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Nix isn’t the same player as Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, or even Drake Maye. What he is, however, is the perfect fit for the perfect system in Denver.
He is efficient and throws low-percentage passes that eat up yardage. He’s essentially a new version of Drew Brees without all the passing yards. Like the Chargers, Denver is ranked in the lower third offensively (22nd in total yards per game) but can eat the clock with short passes and runs.
“Nik’s insane. … He is just playing phenomenal football.”
OLB @nikkkkbonitto, Denver’s defense shine in 5-takeaway performance vs. Colts » https://t.co/ru1lXmaElt #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/ruvgpvYbY7
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 16, 2024
The Broncos make their money on defense, ranking fourth in points per game allowed (18.7) and ninth in total yards allowed (319.60). The defense also sits fifth against the rush, fourth in interceptions (15), and first in the league with 51 sacks. The Broncos would offer a defensive challenge for Allen and the Bills offense.
A Long Shot
The Colts, Dolphins, or Bengals could sneak into the playoffs. If either team lands the seventh seed, the Bills should have an easy first game. They swept the Dolphins, outscoring Miami 61-37. Buffalo defeated the Colts 30-20 in early November.
Cincinnati has a formidable offense but a defense that could make Mac Jones look like Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers. A lot has to go right for any of these three teams to make the playoffs. Regardless of opponent, Buffalo should feast in the first round of the playoffs.
Main Photo: Tiny MacIntyre – USA Today Sports
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