Writing this article pushed Buffalo back 15 yards
It wasn’t always pretty, but the Buffalo Bills defeated the New England Patriots. Okay, I’ll be honest none of it was pretty. A major factor in the ugliness was penalties.
“Fun” fact: The Bills had five defensive pass interference calls in Week 16. For context, they now have 12 total on the season. The GIFs this week will all be DPI since that’s just absurd.
I’ll head off some questions and say I don’t think this was the worst-called game so far this year, but it sure as heck wasn’t the best officiated one either.
Standard and Advanced Metrics
Counts
It’s very late in the season and the league-wide penalty rates ticked ever so slightly up again. At this point, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see them come down to the 2022 levels even with the usual playoff lull. Last year ended at 5.67 flags per team each game. I’m talking about the league average because I think the charts show this week’s performance pretty clearly.
Yards
Wow. The Bills had more than twice the assessed yardage that the Patriots did, and when you factor in negated yardage it approaches triple. I think this paints a very clear picture too.
Penalty Harm
New England Patriots
The Patriots had a total of 3.4 Harm, which is a function of nothing aside from their assessed yardage. They negated zero yards, impacted zero downs, and generally had a very easy time of things as it pertains to the officiating. I know these articles often skirt the idea of fairness and the comments always bring it up so I want to say two things on the idea of fairness:
- I was making cookies with my family and not paying as close attention to things as I usually do.
- Despite that, I did notice a missed holding call on a big New England play so I don’t believe this was the best officiating effort.
Buffalo Bills
You may have noticed that this chart looks a little different. Due to the volume of flags and the fact that I have holiday things to take care of, I’ll focus on a few high-level things and then focus on defensive pass interference like I promised.
The Bills had 18.1 Harm, which, for those of you quick on the math, is higher than the 3.4 on the Patriots. You might even say it’s quite a bit higher. A significant facet of this was the 23 impacted yards, but an even bigger facet was the numerous free downs given up. Five different penalties gave up a first down for New England with multiple coming on third downs.
Now for the defensive pass interference bonanza!
Linebacker Baylon Spector got things going early with this defensive pass interference less than two minutes into the game. I don’t think there’s a ton here, but Spector does make contact a touch early, likely does hinder the ability to make the catch, and can’t be argued to be playing the ball. I don’t hate this one, though it’s not egregious.
This one on defensive back Cam Lewis I think is more clear cut. There’s an arm wrapped around the receiver and it looks like Lewis prevents the left arm from coming up to help make the catch. This is the right call.
There’s early contact from defensive back Ja’Marcus Ingram, but I don’t see a thing that impedes the ability to make the catch. I don’t like this one at all.
On cornerback Kaiir Elam’s first one it looks like legal chucking to start things off. The entirety of contact is within five yards. I don’t believe the receiver gets “even” with Elam. Finally I don’t see Elam impeding the ability to catch. I’m not big on this one either.
This one is a lot like the call on Baylon Spector. I don’t hate this one, though I don’t believe it’s egregious either. Fun fact, both of Elam’s flags came on 3rd & 4 at the goal line.
What’s the old saying? Ninth time is the charm. Something like that anyway. While it wasn’t exactly all Elam, the Patriots had nine goal-to-go attempts before getting that final touchdown. The call on Ja’Marcus Ingram came earlier in the drive and if not for the flag, it would have been 3rd & 6.
In addition to that, their first down was helped a little bit by the Spector DPI and their second touchdown was helped along by the Cam Lewis one as well as a free first down thanks to the encroachment call on defensive end A.J. Epenesa. While the Pats may have converted the 3rd & 2 on that, I believe we’d all have liked to see them try rather than being handed the first.
While no one is claiming the defense played perfectly, if it weren’t for an incredible amount of flags, many of the “ticky tack” variety to boot, it’s likely the game isn’t as close.