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Future Hall of Famer Holds Key to Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Title Game

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Von Miller will one day be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, likely as a first-ballot selection. Although that legacy is already set in stone, the edge-rusher can add to his storied career by helping the Buffalo Bills finally slay the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

The Bills survived a challenge from Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Beating Patrick Mahomes, another future first-ballot Hall of Famer, and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs on the road is the NFL’s toughest challenge.

To pass that test, Buffalo is going to need a standout performance from Miller and his pass-rushing compadres. A lack of pressure on Mahomes would bring a swift end to the Bills’ memorable campaign.

Bills Need One Last Von Miller Masterclass vs. Chiefs

Miller’s Hall of Fame Résumé

The Denver Broncos selected Miller with the second overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft. To say he lived up to the sky-high expectations that come with going inside the top five may be an understatement. He was one of the league’s most feared defenders for a decade.

Here’s a small sample of the accolades earned by the 35-year-old Texas native:

  • 8-Time Pro Bowl Selection
  • 7-Time All-Pro Selection (3 First Team, 4 Second Team)
  • 2-Time Super Bowl Champion
  • Super Bowl 50 Most Valuable Player
  • 2011 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
  • NFL 2010s All-Decade Team

Miller’s 129.5 regular-season sacks rank 16th in NFL history. He’s added 10.5 sacks in the playoffs, which is tied for 11th all-time.

Accordingly, he’s been one of the most impactful defensive players of the generation. We’re in an NFL era where high-powered offenses tend to dominate. Thus, a high-end pass-rusher like Miller was the epitome of a game-changing force, especially at his peak.

The Bills desperately need that version of Miller to show up on Sunday.

Edge-Rusher’s Recent Struggles

Although the Texas A&M product came out firing on all cylinders this season—three sacks in the first three games—he’s struggled to produce for much of the past two years.

Miller may have been the NFL’s worst full-time player in 2023. He recorded just three total tackles with no sacks, no forced fumbles, and no passes defended across 12 appearances last season, which came upon his return from a torn ACL.

The hot start this year was halted by a four-game suspension for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy. Since his return, he’s tallied just three sacks in 11 appearances, including none in the Bills’ two playoff victories.

Buffalo leans heavily on a defensive line rotation. Greg Rousseau led the team’s defensive ends with a 66.6 percent snap rate during the regular season. Even though it creates a situation where it’s difficult to rack up gaudy numbers, it still doesn’t excuse Miller’s lack of productivity.

Ultimately, he’s in the third season of a six-year, $120 million contract with the Bills and he’s posted just 14 sacks in 41 games, including the postseason. That’s not good enough.

Miller’s Signs of Resurgence

While the sack numbers are underwhelming, the veteran defensive end hasn’t been totally silent. He recovered a fumble in Sunday’s win over the Ravens and returned it 39 yards. The Bills scored a touchdown four plays later to take a lead they’d never relinquish.

Miller’s underlying numbers are also encouraging. His overall Pro Football Focus grade sits at 82.4 (15th among edge defenders), highlighted by an 83.0 pass-rush grade (11th).

Those grades suggest he’s still capable of making an impact off the edge. That’s mostly been the eye-test assessment all season, but he’s still looked just a half-step slow. Alas, when it comes to taking down the NFL’s elite signal-callers, that’s a big difference.

The Bills can take solace in the fact they no longer need a full season of game-altering plays from the former Broncos and Los Angeles Rams standout. Two games where he turns back to clock to his prime years may be enough to secure Buffalo’s first Super Bowl championship.

Bills Defense vs. Patrick Mahomes

Buffalo is 4-1 against Mahomes’ Chiefs in the regular season. It hasn’t been able to replicate that success in the playoffs, however, going 0-3 over the past four years. Here’s a snapshot of the K.C. quarterback’s performance against the Bills’ defense:

  • 5 Regular-Season Games: 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 9 sacks, 85.9 passer rating
  • 3 Postseason Games: 8 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 3 sacks, 126.6 passer rating

Mahomes is going to make plays. Miller and Co. aren’t going to shut down the Chiefs offense completely. That said, pressure is the difference. When the Bills can get in his face consistently, they can force enough mistakes to flip the game in their favor.

That’s why so much of the AFC title game sits on Miller’s shoulders. Yes, fellow edge-rushers Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa are also important, but they take on multifaceted roles. They’re just as crucial to stopping the run as they are to attacking the quarterback.

Miller has one job: sack the opposing signal-caller. He doesn’t play on run-downs and hasn’t held a snap share above 50 percent all season. He enters the game in obvious passing situations with the singular goal of creating pressure, and he hasn’t done it enough since 2023.

All of those struggles over the past two years can evaporate in the blink of an eye, though. Sack Mahomes a few times on Sunday and all will be forgiven by Bills Mafia.

Main Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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