It was anything other than pretty at times, but the Bills are now 8-2
The Buffalo Bills rolled up to Lucas Oil Stadium with a battered and reshuffled roster, set to show the Indianapolis Colts they meant business on Sunday afternoon. By all important measures, business was booming. Unheralded players stepped up to keep things rolling for a Bills team looking to build momentum toward a playoff push.
In winning 30-20, Buffalo is now 8-2 and well on their way to another successful regular season under head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills put up a season-high 416 yards on 69 offensive plays (before kneel downs) — without starting wide receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, and after losing tight end Dalton Kincaid.
There’s plenty to like about Buffalo’s Week 10 win, but I also have some concerns. It was a great victory, one full of resiliency in the face of miscues. I also can’t help feeling like we’re still watching a work in progress, on offense and defense.
Let’s dive into a bit from both sides of the ledger, but be forewarned I may take a more critical tone than one would expect from this win.
The Buffalo Bills continue erasing miserable starts
I’ve lost count how many games this season head coach Sean McDermott has led his team to the locker room trailing at the half after playing a mostly sloppy and forgettable opening 30 minutes of football. Also true has been the Bills’ ability to strike when damage potential is highest, like Mike Tyson in his heyday. Unlike Tyson, these Bills are seldom quick and deadly.
We’ve all heard the expression that “it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” and that’s been a constant theme for these Bills in 2024. Things have obviously gone well for Buffalo, but the regular season is often very different from the postseason. Right now, that doesn’t matter and you have to win the regular season to play deep into January and beyond.
It was surprising to see how little rookie running back Ray Davis was involved, carrying just three times for six yards. Cook was given a featured role, especially in the second half and finished with a stout 80 yards on 19 carries and a late touchdown that Allen called from five yards out to seal the win.
Though it frustrates me to meander back and forth a bit about Buffalo’s Jekyll & Hyde defense, it’s noteworthy that they pitched a shutout in the second half, surrendering mostly meaningless points only in the closing seconds.
The Bills still have a run defense problem
Is something broken with Buffalo’s run defense — is it a general approach to the run game, a lack of difference-makers and those players built to withstand a decent or better running attack? Whatever it is, it very well may be their undoing in the postseason. And no, it’s not too early to say such things.
Yes, the most important stat of note is that running back Jonathan Taylor didn’t score a single touchdown. Luck is a very important part of professional football, but at some point luck swings the other way. The Bills have to figure out what’s ailing them against the run, and quick. I’ve already said as much in prior weeks.
Interestingly, Taylor was almost completely shut down in the second half. At halftime, Taylor had 16 carries for 116 yards. It felt like another King Henry-like day was about to unfold. In the second half, Taylor carried five times for -2 yards.
That means sound adjustments were made in the locker room. The question becomes if they’re unable to predict what teams are going to do against them while preparing before the game. I understand it seems odd to criticize the defensive effort given how things started (two INTs, one pick-six, one forced fumble on first two drives) and how the second half played out. But I believe it’s foolish to ignore the first-half defensive elephant in the room. At what point will it come back to stomp them?
Speaking of defensive issues…
When will the Buffalo Bills’ defensive line show up?
Were plays made? Yes, including defensive end A.J. Epenesa claiming a sack in the closing moments of regulation. But it’s long past time wondering when the Bills’ defensive line will show up for more than a couple plays a game. Against the Colts in Week 10, most of the impactful plays came from reserve and/or replacement defensive linemen. Shoutouts are due to defensive end Austin Johnson (beautiful first-quarter INT) and Quinton Jefferson (big sack to save points when the outcome hung in the balance), who outperformed the likes of edge rusher Von Miller and defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
One Bills Drive has invested too much time, energy, money, and assets into a defensive line that spends as much real estate on a milk carton as it does in the box score. Bills Mafia has continuous nightmares about Buffalo’s defensive line failing to show up in the playoffs, and to this point in the season there’s little reason to believe they’re setting us up for a fairy-tale ending.
Damar Hamlin continues playing big in key moments
Early in the game, safety Damar Hamlin was once again trending on Bills Mafia Twitter following a 58-yard run by Taylor. As has happened a couple times this season, fans were quick to point fingers at Hamlin for missing the tackle, taking a poor angle, and just being the root cause of Buffalo’s defense surrendering another long run.
I’m not here to dispel the notion that Hamlin was lacking on that play. Certainly, the play was there to be made. But I’m also left wondering if it was truly set up for him to make that play, or if it’s yet another case of the Bills’ defensive line failing to live up to expectations. If the complaint is that Hamlin, who leads the team in tackles while playing on 98% of defensive snaps, is the main problem, shouldn’t the front line be held accountable for its failings?
That broken play so many want to lay at Hamlin’s feet — it didn’t lead to a Colts touchdown.
Something that too few people are quick to point out is how many plays Damar Hamlin finds himself in perfect position. Key moments such as against Indianapolis, when he claimed a fumble of quarterback Joe Flacco. Instead, many would rather point out such plays weren’t the result of any incredible athletic effort. I’m here to ask: Who cares? If Hamlin continues to find himself in the right place at the best time, especially getting the ball back for Buffalo’s offense, what more can a person really need to see out of a team’s starting safety?
Buffalo Bills WR depth comes up huge
Wide receiver Mack Hollins has seen his stock yo-yo since Week 1. He started off strong as an end zone threat, but soon found himself in the Mafia’s doghouse due mostly to his lack of proficiency as a down-field threat. In Week 10, Hollins stepped up huge, catching every pass thrown his way en route to a stat line of four catches for 86 yards.
Hollins is the type of player the Bills will more often than not find themselves in need of as the season cruises along, and that’s because of his heady play and willingness to do anything asked of him. Against the Colts, all he did was catch every look his way to continuously move the chains.
Even wide receiver Curtis Samuel showed up to play a key role, catching four of eight targets for 35 yards. It’s at least a performance to build on. More importantly, getting players who are viewed as peripheral complements more involved should benefit quarterback Josh Allen and company down the stretch. Putting the work in now also allows players like wide receiver Khalil Shakir to continue finding mismatches underneath en route to 30-yard catch-and-run plays like we saw against the Colts.
Josh Allen’s day wasn’t incredible, going 22-of-37 for 280 with two interceptions; carrying eight times for 50 yards and a touchdown. But that was a likely by-product of the injury bug plaguing the receivers room. Losing Kincaid did nothing to help matters.
Do the Buffalo Bills have a TE problem?
Since tight end Dawson Knox took over second fiddle to Dalton Kincaid’s featured chair, the balance of the tight end room has felt in flux. Kincaid has garnered the most looks in each game this season, but his production leaves a lot to be desired. As for Knox, he had been all but invisible until just a couple weeks ago.
There was a time when Knox was one of the most deadly weapons for Allen to unleash in the end zone. Now, he’s become a player who gets most looks on long passes between the 20s. Furthermore, Kincaid seems to have lost a fiar bit of the explosive play we saw earl on as a rookie. No doubt, injury is in play here for Kincaid.
I have to wonder if offensive coordinator Joe Brady is overthinking things as it relates to Kincaid. He’s not a traditional tight end, so there’s no need to make him into one. When the Bills drafted Kincaid, I had visions of a career not unlike that of retired wide receiver Ed McCaffrey. Maybe I overshot the plan, maybe we all just need to be more patient as it’s clear that Allen and Kincaid aren’t dialed-in just yet.
Whatever it is, I want more from both Knox and Kincaid, especially when the team is down so many primary wide receivers.
Bills vs. Chiefs Week 11 game set to be another huge event
It’s pretty clear at this point that the NFL and its coverage views Bills-Chiefs like they would an AFC Championship Game. That’s for good reason when Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet on the gridiron.
Week 11 will be a huge game for both teams, and Buffalo should have plenty of motivation to make good on the results of their last meeting in Orchard Park, NY. To boot, the Bills have the chance to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Will the moment prove too big for Sean McDermott and company? Will Tyler Bass be thrust into a redemptive spotlight? Will Josh Allen have enough players to throw the football to?
Above all else, how important is it for Buffalo to defeat Kansas City in Week 11? It’s up there, even if a win doesn’t catapult the Bills past the Chiefs next weekend. What winning next weekend would give Buffalo is another head-to-head “W” against an AFC opponent, and one leading the conference. The Bills need to play smart football and avoid letting the moment prove bigger than it is. In the end, there will be six games left to play following their Week 12 bye.