Can the Bills defense show improvement before the playoffs?
The Buffalo Bills will take on the New York Jets for their second meeting of the year in Week 17 of the NFL season. With a victory, The Bills can lock themselves into the number two seed in the AFC, essentially allowing them to rest players in Week 18. The Bills won their Week 6 matchup versus the Jets by a score of 23-20. The defense gave up 393 total yards, forced one turnover, and only allowed the Jets to convert on four third downs. Let’s look closer at how Buffalo’s defense stacks up versus the Jets in their second matchup this season.
Jets Pass Offense vs Bills Pass Defense
The Jets have playmakers at WR in Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the passing game have seen inconsistent results. The Jets have relied heavily on their passing game throwing a fourth-highest rate in the league at 64.1% of the time, this is likely due to them being frequently behind in games, forcing them to abandon the run game. Even though the Jets throw the ball a ton, it hasn’t resulted in much success, averaging only 219.2 yards per game ranking 17th in the NFL. Their efficiency is also middling, ranking 17th in EPA per pass (-0.03).
The Jets offensive line has only allowed 144 QB pressures this season, which is the second-best mark in the league. Keeping Rodgers protected is paramount for the Jets’ passing success, and it has been remarkable that the Jets’ offensive line has limited QB pressures while passing at such a frequent rate. Their protection might have something to do with Rodgers being a dangerous deep-ball passer this season, posting a 115.7 passer rating on throws of 20+ yards downfield, which is second in the NFL.
Though Rodgers has excelled in throwing the deep ball, he has struggled significantly in the intermediate range (10-19 yards), ranking dead last in this category with a 48.2 passer rating. Rodgers receivers pick up the slack in this area as they can take a short throw and turn it into chunk plays, racking up 2086 yards after the catch this season, good for fifth in the NFL. They also give Rodgers 3.6 average yards of separation when targeted. Slot receivers play a critical role in the Jets offense, with Rodgers targeting the slot position 175 times, the second-most in the NFL.
The Bills pass defense has been weaker than normal this season, allowing 229.5 yards per game (24th in the NFL) and ranking 10th worst in EPA/pass allowed (+0.01). The defensive line generates pressure on 34.2% of snaps but struggles to finish plays, converting pressure into sacks just 6% of the time (eighth-worst). The Bills secondary will have to better than normal on Sunday because they have allowed the eighth-most yards after the catch (1968) and the fifth-most yards to slot receivers at 87.6 yards per game, both of which are strong suits of the Jets.
Jets Rush Offense vs Bills Rush Defense
The Jets’ rushing offense has been largely ineffective, ranking 31st in the NFL with 88.7 yards per game and 28th in EPA per rush (-0.12). Success on the ground has been rare, with a success rate of just 38.8%, and they are frequently stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage (9th most at 17.5%). Despite these struggles, the Jets excel in yards after contact, averaging an eighth-best 3.20 yards after contact per carry. The Jets’ rushing attack relies on outside runs, where they go outside the tackles 60% of the time, the fifth-most in the league.
Breece Hall, the Jets starting RB, has been a thorn in Buffalo’s side throughout his career, averaging 87.7 yards per game and a staggering 6.9 yards per carry in his career against Buffalo.
The Bills’ rush defense ranks 14th in yards allowed per game (118.3) but has been prone to explosive plays, allowing the third-highest rate of such runs this season. However, the Bills have the number one “run stuff” defense in the NFL, doing so 22.7% of the time. The Bills also are highly ranked in EPA/rush allowed at a fifth-best -0.13 EPA/rush. Buffalo’s light box approach (6 or fewer defenders in the box on 65.2% of snaps) could be a factor in their struggles with allowing the 10th most yards before contact at 1.64 yards per attempt.
3 Kets to Success for the Bills Defense vs Jets
- Disrupt Rodgers’ Rhythm
While the Jets’ offensive line has been excellent in pass protection, the Bills must find ways to convert pressure into sacks or hurried throws. Forcing Rodgers into his intermediate throwing struggles could limit the Jets’ efficiency.
2. Lock Down the Slot
Pay attention if Garrett Wilson (23.3%) or Davante Adams (42.3%) lines up in the slot, with Rodgers’ tendency to target this position, it should be your top priority to take away these players especially when lined up in the slot. This is a great tune-up game for Taron Johnson before the Bills head to the playoffs.
3. Limit Explosive Runs
If the Jets decide to give Breece Hall the ball 20+ times during the game, that’s fine, the Bills will probably win. However, the Bills defense can’t let Hall bust one loose for a long TD. Maintain the explosive back and don’t let him become the story of the game.