Maybe even panic-button concerned
I know there’s been a lot of consternation among fans about the Buffalo Bills’ defense this season, but overall I haven’t been too worried. They’ve only allowed more than 30 points in three contests — which came against the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions; none of which are slouches. I’m not saying the Bills don’t have defensive flaws, but I’m not worried about the defense.
Overall, I don’t think I’m an arrogant fan or writer either — which I think lends some credence to the premise of this article. If the Bills’ defense doesn’t have a big bounce-back this week against the New England Patriots, I will officially be worried.
New England Patriots’ per-drive stats
As far as scope of metrics goes, per-drive ones are my favorites. One opportunity with the ball. What can you do with it? If you’re the New England Patriots in 2024 the answer has typically been “not much.”
Starting with the key measure of points per drive, the Patriots average 1.55 this season. That’s 29th in the league. If you’re a fan of my Rule of Four like you should be, that’s in the bottom four — which I refer to as the “terrible” tier.
They’re slightly better when it comes to scoring rate. New England scores on 31.1% of their drives, which is the 28th-rated team in the league. That narrowly avoids the “terrible” label, landing at “bad.”
In turnovers, their 21st-ranked rate of 12.2% puts them in the average bucket. That sounds like a strength and, yes, it’s something to build on. But what it also means is they’re not handing the ball over at a high rate yet their drives still manage to stall.
The Patriots are also average in time of possession and yards per drive (18th and 23rd respectively). They’re okay at holding on to the ball and gaining some yards — it’s getting points out of the drive that’s been problematic.
New England Patriots’ per-play stats
While I love per-drive measures, per-play ones aren’t too far behind. Per play metrics allow run versus pass conversations better, for instance.
When it comes to yards per play, overall the Pats are 28th in the league — moving the ball 4.82 yards on average which puts them in the bad tier. Their 4.56 yards on the ground per play is actually 10th in the league. That’s still average per my Rule of Four, but close to the good tier.
The passing game drags them down considerably. At 5.52 yards per play on passing attempts, that’s 30th in the league. For instance, the Bills’ 7.76 yards per play on passing attempts is 2.24 yards higher, or over 40%. That’s only fifth in the NFL.
One thing I glance at yearly is the overlap in the NFL when it comes to the best running teams versus the worst passing ones. Over the years I’ve come to the conclusion that there are not too many indicators of a struggling offense than the ignominy of having a yards-per-pass average lower than another team’s rushing average.
The Baltimore Ravens average 5.7 yards per rush this year.
New England Patriots’ miscellaneous rates
The Patriots overall have an interception rate of 2.28%, which is 19th in the league. Not too shabby. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett and his stats help keep it low. Drake Maye’s rate is 3.2%. I bring that up because that would fall between the 27th and 28th slots currently.
New England allows a sack on 10.25% of dropbacks. In that regard, it’s the reverse of above, with Brissett’s numbers being a bit worse than Maye’s in this regard.
If you force third down, you’re in good shape against the Patriots. They convert just over one-third of the time and sit at 29th in the league.
The Final Straw
I’m not intending to sit around and just talk poorly about the Patriots. It’s not that every facet of their offense is terrible but on paper the aggregate is quite rough. I also know quite well from Buffalo’s drought era that you play the games because sometimes the on-paper comparison gets shredded when the game is actually played. And sure, there’s merit to the idea that teams play tougher within their division.
With all that said, if the paper version of the game turns into confetti I do think it’s time to worry about the defense if they allow New England to have any significant control of this game. Just so it’s on the record, I’d love for Josh to go Alien mode once again (and maybe 6 or 7 more times after that). I will be concerned if he HAS to do it though.