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Jaguars vs. Bills Preview: Will Gabe Davis’ Return Haunt Buffalo?

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Jaguars Bills

Gabe Davis‘ return to Western New York headlines Monday night’s game between two AFC teams off to polar-opposite starts, the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) and Buffalo Bills (2-0).

Davis spent the first four years of his NFL career as a member of the Bills. His best performance came in the 2021 playoffs when he scored four touchdowns in one of the greatest football games ever played, a 42-36 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He departed Buffalo this past offseason to sign a three-year, $39 million contract with the Jags in free agency.

Jacksonville will seek a standout performance from the veteran wide receiver on Monday Night Football as it attempts to hunt down its first win of the season. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and his Bills teammates are aiming to reach 3-0 for the first time since 2020.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. It’s part of a rare two-game Monday slate, with the Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals getting underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Jaguars-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 3)

X-Factors

Jaguars: WR Gabe Davis

Jags fans are quickly learning what Bills supporters and fantasy football managers have known for awhile: Davis is a frustrating player to follow. He’ll do next to nothing for a stretch, in this case, just six catches through two games, and then he’ll suddenly explode for a monster game. Jacksonville was probably hoping for a bit more consistent involvement from a player earning $13 million annually. His track record suggests that’s not going to happen, though. He’s the best example of boom-or-bust.

Perhaps facing his former team will provide the spark Davis needs to get his season rolling. He discussed the matchup with reporters on Thursday:

Speed off the line is an underlying concern so far, though. The 25-year-old UCF product was never going to win a league’s fastest player competition, but he possessed enough acceleration to beat defenses over the top. That’s been missing in the early stages of the 2024 campaign.

That said, all it takes is one big play to change the narrative. If he can get behind a Bills secondary that’s been nothing short of fantastic through the first two weeks, it could flip what should be a low-scoring contest in the Jaguars’ favor.

It’ll be interesting to see how much single coverage Davis faces on Monday. The answer will show how much (or little) Buffalo fears his current game-breaking ability.

Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid entered the season with as much hype as any tight end in the NFL. The production hasn’t matched those expectations in the early going. He’s only recorded five catches for 44 yards with no touchdowns amid ample defensive attention.

A Jaguars defense that leads the league in man coverage represents a golden opportunity for a breakout game. The second-year pass-catcher should have far more room to operate in the middle of the field on Monday night, and Jacksonville doesn’t have a linebacker that can make his combination of size and athleticism.

It’s important to note there are other factors in play, as well. Allen has been spreading the ball around a lot—10 different players have caught passes through two games—and the Bills’ ground game has been effective, so he’s only averaging 21 passing attempts per contest. By comparison, the superstar quarterback averaged 34 throws per game in 2023.

Things are eventually going to flip, though. The Bills will once again start leaning more heavily on the aerial attack, and Kincaid will take off. It could happen as soon as Monday against the Jaguars.

Key Matchup

Jaguars DE Travon Walker vs. Bills LT Dion Dawkins

Walker has quietly developed into a force on the edge for Jacksonville. While the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft faced some bust talk after recording just 3.5 sacks as a rookie, he bounced back with ten sacks during a breakthrough 2023 campaign.

The 23-year-old Georgia native is off to another promising start this season. He’s tallied eight total tackles and two sacks, putting him well on pace for another year of double-digit sacks.

Walker will face a tough test Monday against Dawkins, though. The Bills left tackle has earned three straight Pro Bowl appearances. His ability to gain inside leverage is crucial because if he does allow pressure around the edge, Allen has a lane to scramble and escape. Rarely does he get beat toward the middle of the pocket.

It’s not just a battle on passing plays, however. Walker’s strength on the exterior of the line is crucial against the run. With Buffalo’s James Cook running wild through the first two games (5.0 yards per carry), preventing him from getting to the outside is vitally important.

If Dawkins can keep Walker under control, the Bills offense should be able to move the ball quite well against the Jaguars defense.

Final Score Prediction: 17-16 Bills

Jaguars-Bills games are typically a bit ugly. Here’s a list of the head-to-head scores between the AFC counterparts since a 2017 playoff meeting:

  • 2017 Postseason: 10-3 Jaguars
  • 2018 Regular Season: 24-21 Bills
  • 2021 Regular Season: 9-6 Jaguars
  • 2023 Regular Season: 25-20 Jaguars

This also feels like a trap game for Buffalo. Jacksonville is better than its 0-2 record would indicate, and the Bills aren’t going to leisurely skate through the season. There are still some roller-coaster moments ahead, and Monday night could be one of them.

You can bet the Jags are going to set out to slow down Cook and the Bills’ running game. If that happens, the question becomes whether Allen and his rebuilt receiver room can still take over a game through the air. The answer will help showcase Buffalo’s true upside this season.

Ultimately, this is a true toss-up game. A win by either side shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Bills hold the slightest of edges on their home field, though.

Main Image: Morgan Tencza – USA Today Sports

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