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Josh Allen: Biggest Hurdles in Buffalo Bills QB’s MVP Pursuit

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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen carved up the Jacksonville Jaguars to the tune of 307 total yards of offense and four touchdowns on Monday night, and he didn’t even attempt a pass in the fourth quarter of the 47-10 rout at Highmark Stadium.

Allen’s dominant display makes him the unquestioned early leader of the NFL Most Valuable Player race. The 2018 first-round pick has been a constant presence in the MVP conversation in recent years, but he’s yet to capture the league’s highest individual honor. His best finish in the voting was second in 2020.

While the face of the Bills franchise is off to a near-perfect start, it’s only Week 4. A lot of challenges must still be conquered if he’s going to capture the award at season’s end amid competition from Kansas City Chiefs counterpart Patrick Mahomes, among others.

Josh Allen’s Biggest Obstacles in MVP Quest

Bills Schedule

Buffalo entered the 2024 season with the league’s seventh-toughest strength of schedule, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Allen and Co. are about to enter the teeth of that difficult slate.

The Bills are set to embark on a three-game road trip featuring matchups against the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and New York Jets. It’s one of the toughest, if not the singular toughest stretches any NFL team will face during the current campaign.

Their list of formidable opponents doesn’t end there, either. Allen and his teammates face road tests that include the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and Detroit Lions. They also have back-to-back home games against last year’s Super Bowl combatants, the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, though a bye week does separate those contests.

In other words, it’s a good thing Buffalo is stacking wins early in the season. It’s putting the team on a safe trajectory toward the playoffs, but getting the No. 1 seed will be tricky. The Chiefs are also 3-0 and face a far more favorable list of remaining opponents. So that could be an MVP edge for Mahomes.

The Bills are still in a strong position, and having an elite QB like Allen in their corner gives them a better opportunity than most teams to survive the rugged schedule. That said, they’ve been on cruise control in the early stages of the season and that likely won’t be the case all year. There are still some ups and downs on the horizon.

Current and future Injuries

Allen suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand on a touchdown run in the Bills’ Week 1 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The 28-year-old University of Wyoming product has remained on the injury report ever since, but he’s been a full participant in practice and in no apparent danger of missing a game.

While the hand isn’t greatly impacting his play, it’s still a factor. The Monday Night Football crew pointed out how the superstar quarterback was using his right hand on some handoffs that would typically feature the QB’s left hand. It seems like more of preventive maintenance—keeping the hand out of harm’s way in a blowout—rather than an inability to use the hand. The Bills aren’t going to provide any details beyond what’s listed on the injury report, though.

In the bigger picture, Allen’s all-out style of play does bring more injury risk into the equation. The two-time Pro Bowler takes more hits than the average quarterback. He also isn’t afraid to initiate the contact himself while hunting a first down or touchdown.

He’s been a bit more reserved the past two weeks, sliding and running out of bounds in lieu of gaining extra yards, but those games were blowouts. What happens in a close contest when the Bills need him to put his superhero cape on? We all know the answer. Allen’s greatest strength is his fearlessness. It can also come back to haunt him at times. Injuries are the biggest downside of the latter.

The Bills are proving they are still a Super Bowl contender when he’s on the field. They can’t afford to lose him for an extended stretch, though. An absence would also be a major blow to his MVP candidacy.

Lack of True No. 1 Target?

This one is a question rather than a definitive statement. That’s because the Bills are finding success by spreading the ball around. Here’s how many different players have been targeted by Allen in each of Buffalo’s first three games:

  • Week 1 vs. Arizona: 10
  • Week 2 vs. Miami: 9
  • Week 3 vs. Jacksonville: 10

It’s working. The Bills offense became stagnant last season with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis eating up most of the snap share and targets at wide receiver. The team moved in a new direction with more versatility at the position, and so far it’s paying off.

Perhaps that’ll remain the case all season. The heavy wideout and tight end rotations will keep defenses off balance and Allen will continue to find the open guy.

Yet, it’s fair to wonder what will happen as the year goes on and opposing secondaries get a better idea of how the Bills are attacking. Will the fact Buffalo doesn’t have that bona fide No. 1 weapon to target when it needs a key conversion becomes an issue? It’s possible.

Allen and Co. have been using the phrase “everybody eats” to describe the offense. No one dominates, but everybody gets a piece of the pie. It’s far different from the Diggs Era in Buffalo. In the end, it may be the change that took the Bills offense to a new, higher level.

It’s a question that’ll continue to hover over the unit for much of the season, though.

Main Photo: [Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle] – USA Today Sports

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