Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes: How they measure up in 2024

The next chapter in this rivalry is ready to be written

Few rivalries in recent NFL history have been as thrilling as Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes over the past four seasons. They are the new-age Brady against Manning. Allen and Mahomes aren’t just the faces of their franchises, they have become measuring sticks for everyone else’s quarterbacks.

With the Buffalo Bills at 8-2 and the only AFC team within shouting distance of the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs, this Week 11 showdown has big implications for the AFC’s top seed. Here’s a preview of Allen and Mahomes’ seasons through 10 weeks, before the next chapter of their rivalry is written.

---

Overall Passing

Josh Allen

Josh Allen is playing some of the best football of his career, and he’s doing it while limiting his interceptions to just four through 10 games this season. His 2,281 passing yards (228.1 per game) are top 10 in the league, which is very impressive considering the Bills only pass the ball 53.3% of the time — which is ranked in the bottom third of the NFL. Allen’s productivity when throwing the ball is elite, generating a third-best +.60 passing EPA and contributing 17 touchdowns through the air.

Allen is starting to find the balance between aggression and control that Bills fans have been waiting for. His 100.2 passer rating is on pace for his best since the 2020 season, however, his completion percentage of 63.5% could be improved.

Patrick Mahomes

We’re used to seeing Patrick Mahomes among the best in most passing categories, but he isn’t having a typical-for-him MVP-caliber type of season. Even though he may not have the lead in the MVP race, he’s still putting together a solid 2024. Through nine games this season, Mahomes has thrown for a respectable 2,208 passing yards. Like Allen, his 245.3 passing yards per game and 12 passing touchdowns are top 10 in the NFL.

However, his nine interceptions are only one behind the league leader and also represent the most interceptions he’s thrown through nine games since 2021. Mahomes’ 90.3 passer rating is ranked in the bottom half of NFL quarterbacks, likely due to his numerous interceptions. His +36.5 passing EPA and 69.5% completion percentage are both top 10 in the NFL.

What talent do Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have around them?

The supporting cast around Allen and Mahomes also tells part of the story. Let’s take a look at what each have to work with on offense.

Josh Allen

The departure of longtime alpha wide receiver Stefon Diggs and starting wide receiver Gabe Davis left a gaping hole in Buffalo’s offense this offseason. The Bills addressed the position by using their top draft choice on rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman. It took Coleman a handful of games to find his traction, but he burst onto the scene in Week 7, winning the Pepsi Zero Sugar Rookie of the Week. However, after getting injured in Week 9, Coleman has been sidelined and will miss this weekend’s game against the Chiefs.

New offseason additions Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins have also stepped up in smaller roles at wide receiver. Key returners include tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, and slot wide receiver Kahlil Shakir. According to Football Insights, Shakir and Allen have been one of the top QB/WR duos in the NFL.

However, Allen’s receivers’ average yards of separation per target (3.6) and his 15.4% tight-window percentage (the percentage of passes where the targeted receiver has less than one yard of separation when the pass arrives) left the Bills front office wanting more from Allen’s pass-catching targets. Before the trade deadline, the Bills brought in wide receiver Amari Cooper, known for his route-running ability, to give Allen another reliable target to get open. Cooper performed well in his first game as a Bill, even scoring a touchdown, but he has been injured since and may miss Sunday’s game.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes’ situation is similar to that of Allen’s. Going back to last year, Mahomes has been without a WR1, although Rashee Rice was emerging as that option before he suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year. The biggest difference is that Mahomes has Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends in the history of the NFL. They did draft (in an infamous trade-up with the Bills) wide receiver Xavier Worthy this year, but he has yet to make much of an impact thus far in his career.

Even with the questions surrounding the talent level of the Chiefs’ pass-catching group, they’ve still given Mahomes plenty of open targets. On average, his receivers create 4.2 yards of separation when targeted, the second-most in the NFL. Additionally, Mahomes has had the lowest tight-window percentage in the NFL at just 6.3% — meaning he’s throwing to some of the most open targets in the entire NFL. This might be more of a testament to head coach Andy Reid’s offensive scheme than an actual representation of the quality of Kansas City’s receiving group.

How Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes fare against the blitz

One of the more intriguing talking points about Allen and Mahomes is how they handle the blitz. Not many teams want to blitz Allen or Mahomes this season, with Allen seeing pressure at a 26.3% rate and Mahomes a 23.2% rate, both in the bottom half of the league.

Josh Allen vs. the blitz

Allen and the Bills struggled at times against the blitz this year, but they have found their stride of late. This season the blitz has been a goldmine for Allen, torching defenses for 705 passing yards, zero interceptions, and a league-leading 11 TDs. This has earned Allen the fourth-highest passer rating (128.4) and EPA (+32.8) versus the blitz in the NFL.

This weekend provides an interesting matchup for Allen against the Chiefs’ defense because they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL at 36.5%. This approach has been effective for KC, allowing the second-fewest EPA (-50.4). It should be interesting to see who wins the blitz battle.

Patrick Mahomes vs. the blitz

Mahomes has been decent against the blitz this season, but not as dominant as Allen. He has thrown for 611 passing yards, three interceptions, and five touchdowns. His 102.7 passer rating versus the blitz is good for 11th-best in the NFL. However, the Bills’ defense blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the NFL at 18.2%. I would expect the Bills to lean on their coverage to create tight throwing windows for Mahomes — something he hasn’t seen a whole lot of this season.

QB Mobility: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes bring plenty of X-Factor

Allen and Mahomes are known for their scrambling ability, and each has had their fair share of “what?!” plays when they escape the pocket. Allen will likely see more designed runs than Mahomes — something the Bills lean on in big games. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the most important plays of the game on Sunday comes via a Houdini act in the pocket or a scramble from Allen or Mahomes.

Fun fact: Allen has rushed for 32 total first downs against the Chiefs, compared to Mahomes’ 13 rushing first downs facing the Bills.

• Josh Allen: 261 rushing yards and four TDs
• Patrick Mahomes: 167 rushing yards and one TD

Head-to-Head History

• Overall (including playoffs): Mahomes 4, Allen 3
• Regular season: Allen 3, Mahomes 1 (Allen has won three straight in the regular season)
• Playoffs: Mahomes 3, Allen 0

Josh Allen’s head-to-head stats vs. Chiefs (all games)

• Passing yards: 1801
• Passing TDs: 16
• INTs: 3
• Completion %: 61.8%
• Rushing yards: 393
• Rushing TDs: 4

Patrick Mahomes’ head-to-head stats vs. Bills (all games):

• Passing yards: 2024
• Passing TDs: 15
• INTs: 5
• Completion %: 68.3%
• Rushing yards: 219
• Rushing TDs: 1

---

In summary

Allen versus Mahomes is a clash of titans that brings out the best in both players. The next chapter of this rivalry will be written with the entire football world watching on Sunday afternoon. The outcome is uncertain but one thing is clear: this is the regular-season game of the year.