Murphy: Offseason observations as Bills maneuver for next playoff run

So, it’s on to the offseason. On to six months of speculation, conjecture, educated and un-educated guesses about the future of the Bills.

Because the Bills won 13 games and made a deep run in the playoffs, surprising many observers (me included) who expected a division title but a short postseason, speculation about next season is fun. What if the Bills are just a move or two away from the Super Bowl?

Here’s a list of observations post-Super Bowl:

Lessons from Eagles-Chiefs

For me, Super Bowl LIX was dreadful; almost unwatchable. And not just because Tom Brady was providing analysis.

The most salient point for Bills fans was how the Philadelphia defense dominated, making Patrick Mahomes look awful. It took until late in the third quarter before Kansas City crossed midfield and made their second first-down. Mahomes was sacked six times, and the Chiefs offensive line was over-matched.

The biggest problem was the size and skill of the Eagles defensive line. They’re anchored in the middle by 335-pound Jordan Davis and 314-pound Jalen Carter, both first-round picks.

For comparison, the Bills top five defensive linemen average 277 pounds and have 287-pound Ed Oliver and 320-pound Da’Quan Jones in the middle.

With the Chiefs offense focused on passing the ball so much the Bills should get bigger and bulkier up front. Not that they’ll only face Kansas City in the playoffs, but they have four of the last five years, all elimination games for Buffalo.

Lake Erie trade route

Swapping out Von Miller for Myles Garrett is a great idea. Miller will be 36 years old next season, and his best days are behind him. Garrett will be 30 with at least 2-3 more seasons of pass rushing excellence that produced 14 sacks each of the last two years.

So far, Cleveland isn’t ready to trade Garrett, but they will be. And he seems interested in Buffalo.

“I don’t mind the snow,” he told reporters at the Super Bowl. “I just want to win.”

It would require at least Buffalo’s first round draft pick (30th overall) and likely a boatload of money but it’s the type of daring move Brendan Beane excels at. Make it happen.

New face on staff

The Bills are changing up their defensive strategy by reportedly adding Ryan Nielsen to the staff as Senior Defensive Assistant. The former Jacksonville and Atlanta Defensive Coordinator has also been assistant Head Coach for the New Orleans Saints.

He’ll work with Bills DC Bobby Babich and likely continue the Bills transition to more man-defense and less zone — a process that began late in the 2024 season. His 2024 Jaguars were second in man coverage rate in the NFL.

The Bills were 23rd in the league in sacks last year; 24th in passing yards against. It’s a step in the right direction.

Rapid fire

• The Bills should spend the rest of their draft capital on cornerbacks. You can get a good one in later rounds (Christian Benford: 6th round) and given the depth problems they had in the postseason more bodies are essential.
• It’s time to develop a new short-yardage package. The “tush push” of Josh Allen was overdone by the end of the playoffs. Give Allen something new and dynamic to work with. Running the offense 22 times on short yardage produced 16 conversions and should continue, but variety is needed.
• The firing of special teams coordinator Matt Smiley was a bit surprising after Sean McDermott defended him a week prior. But not so unexpected, given the struggles the Bills had against the Rams in particular. Finishing the regular season in the bottom-fourth in punt returns, gross punting and kickoff returns also didn’t help.

P.S.

Just a quick note on Dick Jauron, who died last week at the age of 74. Hired when Marv Levy was general manager, Jauron had three 7-9 campaigns and lost his job in his fourth year. He had the longest tenure of any Bills Coach during the 17-year playoff drought.

Yet, I feel like I knew Jauron less than any coach during that extended drought.

We taped regular Friday pregame interviews that aired game day. One Friday, after a bye, I mentioned to Jauron that I saw him on television the week before sitting by himself in the stands at a Red Sox playoff game. I spoke before the interview about how cool it was that he was there — it must have been fun.

“I wasn’t there,” Jauron said. He certainly was, I was sure of it.

He could never let his guard down. Rest in Peace Coach Jauron.