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Patriots-Bills Preview: Will Drake Maye Put Buffalo on Upset Alert?

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New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

The Buffalo Bills (11-3) and New England Patriots (3-11) may have polar opposite records, but that doesn’t guarantee Sunday’s AFC East clash will be a blowout. In fact, Pats rookie quarterback Drake Maye could create real problems for a struggling Bills defense.

Maye has flashed high-end upside since taking over as the Patriots starter in Week 6. His dual-threat playmaking ability has even drawn comparisons to Bills signal-caller Josh Allen, the current favorite for the NFL’s 2024 Most Valuable Player Award.

As a result, Buffalo can’t afford to overlook Maye and the Pats despite their underwhelming record. That’s especially true since Allen and Co. probably need to run the table if they’re going to keep their modest hopes alive of overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC standings.

The Bills and Patriots are scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday at Highmark Stadium. Television coverage will be on CBS.

Patriots-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 16)

X-Factors

Patriots: LB Christian Elliss

Elliss, a fourth-year linebacker, has received the most playing time of his NFL career. He’s taken the opportunity and ran with it to the tune of 55 total tackles, three passes defended, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble, and one interception. It’s impressive versatility for someone who mostly served as a reserve before 2024.

Now he may face his toughest challenge to date: spying on Josh Allen. Teams know the key to beating Buffalo is keeping Allen in the pocket. Take away his ability to extend plays and the Buffalo isn’t nearly as dangerous. It’s easier said than done, of course.

Elliss possesses the athleticism necessary to at least make life difficult on the face of the Bills franchise. Expect the Patriots to mix it up. Sometimes he’ll be a true spy, while other times he may blitz just to keep the Buffalo offensive line guessing.

New England knows it can’t just run its base defense and expect to slow down Allen and Co., who’ve tied an NFL record by scoring at least 30 points in eight straight games. The Pats defense needs to take some risks—all-out blitzes, cornerbacks jumping routes, etc.—to have a chance.

Elliss can be the secret weapon amid the chaos. If he can even have moderate success keeping the Bills QB in the pocket, it’ll be a massive victory for the Patriots. That alone would be enough to give them a chance in one of the league’s toughest road environments.

Bills: RB James Cook

Buffalo has a great offense at baseline, in large part because of Allen, but the unit goes from effective to unstoppable when Cook is running well. The Bills have averaged 34.2 points in the six games since the start of last season where he’s rushed for at least 100 yards.

The 25-year-old University of Georgia product is coming off a terrific performance in the team’s 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions. He racked up 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries (7.5 YPC). He also had a 28-yard reception.

Now Cook gets to face a middling New England rush defense that ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (127.4) and 14th in yards allowed per carry (4.4). Arizona Cardinals running back James Connor rushed for 110 yards and two scores against the Pats last week.

The Bills will want to take as much pressure off Allen as possible during the final three weeks of the regular season. The less time he’s forced into Superman mode, the better. In turn, the team’s RB trio of Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson should be leaned on heavily down the stretch.

If there’s one thing Cook has lacked this season, it’s consistency. For example, here are his yards per carry figures over his last four appearances: 7.5, 3.3, 7.6, 2.2. A more reliable week-to-week impact would make the Buffalo offense even more lethal.

Key Matchup

Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Bills Defensive Linemen

Allen made it clear this week that he’s been impressed by his Pats counterpart ahead of their first head-to-head matchup.

“I think their quarterback is going to be really good for a really long time,” the Bills cornerstone told reporters. “He’s making some unbelievable plays, extending and from the pocket. I’ve got a lot of respect for him and his game.”

Maye, 22, has completed 68.5 percent of his throws for 1,898 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 10 games. He’s also recorded 359 rushing yards and two scores on 42 carries (8.5 YPC). He’s earned a solid 74.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus and ranks 16th in ESPN’s Total QBR (58.7).

Those are all impressive numbers for a rookie. They’re even more promising when you consider the lack of weapons around him. If the Patriots’ front office can add some high-impact targets via trades, the draft, or free agency, the team could be primed for a major leap in 2025.

From the Bills’ perspective, it’s worrying because they have to face Maye twice in the final three weeks. Having to battle a quarterback who can single-handedly take over a game is always a challenge, and that’s only amplified because the Pats have nothing to lose at this stage.

As a result, the Bills’ defensive line faces a lot of pressure to keep him in check.

While Cook’s production is often the litmus test for exactly how dangerous Buffalo’s offense is any given week, the same holds true for Ed Oliver on defense.

The 2019 first-round pick can be a game-wrecker on the interior. The defensive tackle proved that last week against the Lions, tallying four tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble. He was the only reason the unit got off the field a few times in the shootout.

Also like Cook, however, Oliver can go invisible at times. That’s been true throughout his career. He’ll dominate for a few weeks and then go into hibernation. He’s been sleepwalking through much of the current campaign, but the Bills are hoping he’s coming back to life with the playoffs on the horizon.

The Bills are going to need a complete performance from Oliver, fellow defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, and the edge-rushing trio of Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, and Von Miller to prevent Maye from taking over the game on Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: 28-24 Bills

Don’t be surprised if this game is a lot closer than it looks on paper. Maye is getting better with each passing week and the Patriots have a power back in Rhamondre Stevenson who can hammer away at the Bills’ shaky run defense to control the clock.

Buffalo is still in desperation mode, though. It’s dealt with an endless stream of key injuries dating back to training camp. So, getting the bye week that comes with the No. 1 seed would be invaluable. Getting the roster as close to full strength as possible would aid a deep playoff run.

Therefore, the Pats pulling off the upset is a long shot. Even if it’s a highly competitive game in the second half, Allen will likely do what he’s been doing all season: take over when it matters most.

Allen has become more selective with his running this season. His escapes from the pocket are more focused on trying to find a receiver downfield. But, when the going gets tough, that changes and he goes back to the whatever-it-takes mentality.

That’s why the Bills are still a Super Bowl contender in what was labeled a transition year. Their quarterback is the best football player on the planet right now. He’s clicking on all cylinders and everyone else on the offense is feeding off that success.

All told these Allen vs. Maye matchups are trending toward must-see TV in the future. For now, however, the Bills superstar and his teammates still hold the upper hand.

Main Photo: [Joe Rondone/The Republic] – USA Today Sports

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