We have some punching and other wackiness to discuss
The Buffalo Bills got off to a hot start against the Indianapolis Colts, let them back into the game, then took back control in what was ultimately a convincing win. Along the way, there were plenty of flags, including a couple fun things for us to discuss.
Yes, I’ll talk about Josh Allen getting punched. Ready? Here we go!
Standard and Advanced Metrics
Penalty Counts
The roller coaster season for the Bills continues. They had been doing great staying under the league average, then decided to blow that concept to smithereens for a couple games. Then back under. Now back over. Still though, the Bills are currently 15th in the league when it comes to flags per game, and for a Sean McDermott-led team that’s pretty fantastic.
Penalty Yards
Overall this isn’t too bad in relation to their counts, so maybe there’s some skewing toward boo-boo flags for the Bills. Through our first two charts, the Colts look like they had a very clean day. Let’s check in on my proprietary stat to see if I still feel that way when the dust settles.
Penalty Harm
Indianapolis Colts
Cutting to the chase, the Colts had 6.8 Harm total, which is well under our bad-day threshold. So the answer is that “no,” my stat isn’t going to change my mind on the Colts having a clean day overall. Most of these are pretty “meh” too.
False starts are rarely fun to discuss, the delay of game was intentional to try and draw Buffalo offside, and the defensive pass interference was offset by an illegal shift on tight end Dawson Knox.
There were two illegal-formation flags on Indy. The one on offensive tackle Matt Goncalves was yards only. The one called on offensive tackle Braden Smith wiped out a five-yard gain, which happened to have earned a first down from third. For the formula fans that’s 5 yards assessed + 5 yards impacted + 2 downs negated. Or 0.5 + 0.5 + 2.0 = 3.0 Harm.
Last but not least on the penalties that were called, was the too-many-men-on-the-field call, which occurred on the same play as the offside. The Bills had the ball 3rd & 1 and Buffalo called the usual quarterback “sneak” with Josh Allen — who gained two yards. On paper, this is objectively hilarious. Technically, the Rams had 14 players on the field, including one horrifically offside. Let’s take a peek at this.
In reality it’s a little less funny, but a lot more “kudos to the Bills for having the wherewithal to notice the Colts weren’t getting off the field fast enough.” Let’s do one more GIF and have a bit of discussion.
Going in slow motion, I counted five instances of what could be a punch. The NFL rule book is pretty cut and dry on punching. You take a swing, you take a walk to the locker room. Even if you miss. That said, we all know that punching at the ball is allowed. So let’s discuss…
The rule book specifically prohibits a punch directed at an opponent, which is likely why the Peanut Punch is allowed as it’s directed at the ball technically. I think you can make an objective case that punches one, two, four, and five may be directed at the ball. Or trying to. Perhaps. Maybe. You can make a case for it is all I’m saying.
That said, that leaves punch three going toward Allen’s head. If we make the case that the other four are directed at the ball, you could likely make a case that all five were attempts to get the ball and one simply misfired.
With that said, I still think this needs to be flagged. A lot of defensive flags are strict liability, which means motivation isn’t a factor. It either happened or it didn’t. Punching seems to fall toward that interpretation in the rules. Further, punch five happens when the play is dead. An attempt to dislodge the ball is meaningless. I’d also add that at no point is there a clear shot at the ball, so really all five attempts are a bad idea.
To keep throwing my own jabs, while I would argue there’s some merit to the idea the flailing arm is trying to get at the ball, you’re still responsible for where that flailing appendage goes. If Taron Johnson was going for the ball and accidentally punched someone in the face I’d be fine calling that a flag — and we all know that dude loves to throw punches (at the ball).
Last but not least, none of that explains using Ty Johnson’s face as leverage to get up.
Buffalo Bills
This looks less than ideal, but Buffalo’s total Harm landed at 9.1, which is also below our threshold for a bad day. Many of these are pretty boring, such as defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson’s neutral-zone infraction, or Dawson Knox’s illegal shift that was offset. Or for instance, left tackle Dion Dawkins and his two false-start flags.
Right tackle Spencer Brown had one of those too. His unsportsmanlike conduct flag was pretty funny, a bit justified after the out-of-bounds tackle/finisher on Josh Allen, and also completely meaningless in the grand scheme of things as Tyler Bass kicked the extra point through anyway.
That leaves just three to discuss here, and mostly from a formula stance. Knox was also called for holding on a five-yard carry by running back James Cook. The flag was half the distance to the goal for eight yards plus the five negated. Let’s GIF it, but I think this is a decent call.
Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence had a similar one on a 12-yard Josh Allen run negated and was also half the distance to the goal for six yards. Of note, this was two plays after Knox’s and clearly the Bills hadn’t moved out of the shadow of their own goal line just yet. Buffalo survived both and had a nearly seven-minute drive that ended in a touchdown and slammed the door shut on Indy.
Rasul Douglas was called for illegal contact at five yards. It also gave up two free downs as it occurred on third. The Colts would have likely gone for a field goal here if not for the penalty, but scored a touchdown after getting their free downs. Here’s the GIF, but I don’t think there’s much controversy here. It’s not egregious but also nowhere near frivolous.
