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Ranking the Buffalo Bills’ Toughest Possible Path in 2024 NFL Playoffs

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The Buffalo Bills are about to feel the pain of not being able to chase down the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. A playoff gauntlet awaits MVP front-runner Josh Allen and Co., and it could get even tougher based on the Week 18 results.

That doesn’t mean the Bills aren’t capable of overcoming the odds to make a championship run, of course. Their wins over the Chiefs and Detroit Lions, the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, show their upside can match any team in the NFL. It just leaves no margin for error.

With that in mind, let’s break down the toughest playoff path Buffalo could face on the road to New Orleans.

Bills Playoffs: Analyzing Potential Postseason Path

Wild Card Round: Cincinnati Bengals

In early December, when most people were writing obituaries about the Bengals’ 4-8 season, we discussed how dangerous quarterback Joe Burrow and his teammates remained. They had an extremely favorable schedule on the horizon, and they’ve predictably taken full advantage of it.

Cincinnati still needs some help to make the playoffs. It must win a road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday and then hope for losses by the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

If the Bengals sneak in, however, they’ll be the most dangerous No. 7 seed since the NFL adopted its current playoff format in 2020.

Burrow is putting together an MVP-caliber campaign. The newly minted two-time Pro Bowler leads the league with 4,641 passing yards to go along with an eye-popping 42-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Having two high-end targets like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins makes the Cincy aerial attack incredibly tough to slow down.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense has struggled for most of the season, but it’s shown signs of life recently. The unit has allowed just 19.3 points per game over the past four weeks, a number good enough to believe the Bengals can make a deep run if they make the playoff field.

Make no mistake: the Bills would still be favored if this matchup comes to fruition. It’s far more worrisome than the other options on the table, though.

Divisional Round: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens embarrassed the Bills in Week 4. There’s no other way to say it. Both teams knew Baltimore was going run Derrick Henry until Buffalo showed it could stop the punishing rusher. It never did as Henry rolled to 199 yards in a 35-10 blowout win.

A few months later, the weather has only gotten colder and the history suggests the conditions would only further favor the Ravens in a possible rematch. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Henry receive 30-plus carries if the teams do meet in the second round.

That’s a massive concern for a Bills defense that hasn’t consistently stopped the run all year. Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season, which is tied for 25th in the NFL. Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich would be tested in a major way trying to slow down Henry.

This matchup would also have a unique side story. That’s because these two fanbases have been going at it hard on social media in recent weeks debating the MVP race between Allen and Ravens counterpart Lamar Jackson.

Although Jackson is having an outstanding season—one for the record books statistically—he’s not more valuable than Allen. That was further proven Thursday when the NFL announced Baltimore has nine Pro Bowlers compared to just two for Buffalo.

Allen has been a one-man show for the Bills at times, and he should win the MVP. Period. If the Ravens win this game, however, Jackson and his supporters would have the last laugh.

AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs

If the Bills reach the AFC title game, the Chiefs will likely be waiting once again. Buffalo has lost to Kansas City in the playoffs three times in the past four years:

  • 2020 AFC Championship: 38-24 Chiefs
  • 2021 Divisional Round: 42-36 Chiefs (OT)
  • 2023 Divisional Round: 27-24 Chiefs

The Bills’ biggest problem in those games in an ability to generate pressure on future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes. In turn, the defense simply hasn’t been able to get off the field and a lot of memorable performances by Allen have been wasted in the process.

That’s why Buffalo needs one final standout playoff run from Von Miller.

The 35-year-old edge-rusher was one of the NFL’s worst players in 2023 after returning from a torn ACL. He started this season strong, tallying a sack in each of the team’s first three games, but then suffered a drop off following a four-game suspension.

Miller might be rounding into form at the perfect time, though. He’s been getting pressure more regularly and recorded his first sack since Week 11 against the Jets last week. He must be a game-changer for the Bills to beat the Chiefs.

Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles

If Buffalo survives the AFC gauntlet, the challenge doesn’t figure to get any easier in the Super Bowl. That’s true whether it’s the Eagles, Lions or another team awaiting them in New Orleans.

Philly likely represents the toughest possible Super Bowl opponent because of its ability to exploit the Bills’ aforementioned struggles in stopping the run. The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (187.3) and have scored 29 rushing touchdowns in 16 games.

Saquon Barkley has led the charge with 2,005 yards on the ground. That’ll allow him to finish eighth on the all-time single-season rushing list if he doesn’t play the regular-season finale. He’ll likely win the Offensive Player of the Year Award for his efforts.

The common theme is quite clear: the Bills’ fate in the playoffs will likely depend far more on the defense stepping up than the Allen-led offense. Buffalo is going to put up points. Whether the defense can get off the field is tougher to predict.

Buffalo sits 29th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage allowed (44.4 percent). It’s been a growing area of concern in recent years amid a sudden decline in that category:

  • 2021: 33.6 percent (1st in the NFL)
  • 2022: 37.6 percent (6th)
  • 2023: 38.5 percent (18th)

Reversing that trend for one month could be the catalyst for the Bills to capture the first Super Bowl title in franchise history.

An extraordinarily tough road likely awaits in the playoffs.

Main Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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