Revisiting bold Buffalo Bills preseason predictions one month before nfl playoffs

San Francisco 49ers v Buffalo Bills — Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Let’s see how close (or not) the Bills are to fulfilling Fernando Schmude’s preseason predictions

Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season is gone. The Buffalo Bills are 10-3, have already locked up their fifth-consecutive AFC East title, and are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the fight for the AFC’s one seed. Not bad.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this, Bills Mafia — at least not for the national media, which questioned the team’s capacity to keep it up after losing so many veteran leaders in the offseason. It wasn’t supposed to be like this for many of you, as well, who chose to ignore the signs written on the wall — head coach Sean McDermott’s experience at elevating his teams (even with some unproven players) during the regular season, and the Bills still having number 17 to lead the way.

Well, I can’t say I have been surprised. I explained how the pessimism was exaggerated, as I gave you, through some articles and vidcasts (I’ll list them here) my predictions for this 2024 season. Some look very good right now, others not so much.

Let’s dive deeper and check the status of all of those and see how brilliant and how uninformed I could sound at the same time.

Record prediction: 12-5 — AFC East Champions

On my Leading the Charge podcast I analyzed the schedule as it was released and had the Bills with a 12-5 record, with a 13-4 best-case scenario, and an 11-6 worst-case. Already with 10 wins on the season and with four games to go, fighting for the one seed in the AFC, and with the rest of the schedule not the most difficult in the league, I feel like my record prediction is pretty safe. There’s of course the possibility of being surprised positively by this team’s final record, instead of negatively, as widely expected.

So far so good on this one, how about my bold predictions, though?

My 5 bold predictions

Before the start of the season, I also wrote a piece with my five bold predictions for the Bills this in 2024. So far, I’m hitting more than missing, so let´s check on them.

1. Josh Allen will be crowned 2024 NFL MVP, McDermott NFL Coach of the Year

With all the narrative about a weakened Bills team struggling in 2024, resulting in one of the worst seasons by the franchise in its recent history, this one wasn’t really a stretch to me. I simply realized that the same doubters would be impressed by what I was expecting: McDermott being able to replace those players with capable and maybe angrier ones, and Josh Allen showing he’s the centerpiece of the offense and the one who elevates others, not the opposite.

Unfortunately, the narratives have already changed and most of the doubters now act like they weren’t that down on the Bills, otherwise, we’d see Sean McDermott’s name more often in coach-of-the-year discussions. Some of his mistakes in close games have popped up in losses against the Houston Texans and most recently the Los Angeles Rams but, if the Bills can surpass the Chiefs for the one seed, I believe he’ll have a case — especially if voters can be honest about what was achieved compared to what they had predicted.

With Josh Allen it hasn’t been different. People who thought it was absurd to vote him the MVP last season now want to value stats when discussing Lamar Jackson winning the award — all when the situation has literally flipped. Well, at least before the monster six-touchdown record game from last weekend, it seems he’s been taking the lead there and not looking back.

Truth be told, if the Bills win out and get the AFC’s top seed on the way, both should win those awards. If one of those two things doesn’t happen, then we can see a discussion with their names still in conversation. Time will tell but, so far, the prediction is alive.

Prediction status: In the hunt, Josh’s case looks stronger than McDermott’s but both are still in contention.

2. Kaiir Elam will finish the season as a starter

This one hasn’t materialized so far, but not for the worst reasons. Christian Benford has emerged as one of the top up-and-coming cornerbacks in the league, forming one of the most underrated starting CB duos alongside Rasul Douglas.

The opportunity for Elam to showcase his own development has been minimal — only one start this season. Yet, when called to duty, he has done a great job replacing two players who have played extremely well. In his only start, Elam had one pass defended and one fumble recovery.

To be honest, until this point, there has been no real chance of this prediction becoming reality. I say until this point for a reason, though. With Douglas leaving last game injured after struggling to hold his own in man coverage against tough competition, the door might open for Elam against the Detroit Lions. If Elam plays as well as he’s done against the Miami Dolphins and, most importantly, shows that with him in the lineup instead of the veteran Buffalo’s defense can play more man coverage, he might become an intriguing option for the remainder of the season and playoffs.

Remember, Douglas is in the last year of his deal, and general manager Brandon Beane will have a decision to make. Elam can become the team’s CB2 sooner rather than later.

Prediction status: Not likely to happen, but the possibility is still there. It’s maybe one year too early.

3. Von Miller will have a 10-plus sack season

A tricky one here. There were a lot of questions about Von Miller still having any gas in the tank after a lackluster season coming back from injury in 2023. I was confident he’d look rejuvenated this year, being able to focus purely on football during the offseason, and that’s been the case.

However, Miller has been used as a third-down/passing downs specialist in 2024. It’s been great to keep him fresh and productive — but with fewer snaps, there are also fewer opportunities for more sacks. Also, a four-game suspension didn’t help.

In nine games played, the future Hall of Famer has four sacks so far. With four more games to go, it’s unlikely that he achieves the 10-sack mark. Anyway, he’s been back in form as an important piece of this defense, as maybe the most-dynamic pass rusher the Bills have at their disposal. I can’t say this prediction has been bad so far.

Prediction status: Not likely to happen, but Miller’s has made a noticeable impact.

4. Connor McGovern will be an upgrade over Mitch Morse

Who would’ve thought, right? I would! But based on what, you’re probably wondering? Let me explain.

During the offseason, Connor McGovern seemed very excited about the move to become the team’s new starting center. Despite the lack of NFL experience at the position, McGovern saw himself as a natural fit for the position and, most importantly, for what the Bills wanted from their center.

It’s undeniable how Mitch Morse’s experience in the pivot helped the team’s offensive line throughout the years. He was also an important piece in the unit’s success in 2023. However, Father Time is undefeated, the Bills had some financial decisions to make, and they had the perfect younger replacement already playing left guard for them. As McGovern put up an impressive first season for the Bills, offensive line coach Aaron Kromer had him taking second-team snaps at center already — showing they had a plan all along.

I’ve said several times that I fully trust Aaron Kromer when it comes to the offensive line. His trust in McGovern, plus his enthusiasm and desire to play center, plus his great performances at LG in 2023, had me sold. I expected some growing pains (which hasn’t happened) but really believed he could maintain the level of play of Morse. Only… he’s done better.

Prediction status: Spot on, not taking anything away from Morse, McGovern is simply bigger, stronger, and a better fit overall.

5. The Buffalo Bills will make it back to the Super Bowl

The boldest of my bold predictions, it’s difficult to evaluate how close the Bills are to being able to fulfill this one. Now one thing’s for sure: all of Bills Mafia is more confident now than they were when I made this bold prediction.

The team seems to be on the right track, playing good football in all phases. Josh Allen continues to be the biggest reason the window stays open but, this time, it seems he finally has more help to go further. The squad is mostly healthy (and we hope they can continue to be), but a lot of the depth pieces were already tested and showed they can replace the starters at a very good level.

The new coordinators and coaches have made a great impact with Sean McDermott, who also has shown improvement in several areas. But games like the last one make it fair to question if he’s poised for a better postseason run than in years before.

There are no guarantees, and we still have to see how the Bills play in January. It’s fair, though, to say that this year’s team seems to be better-prepared to finally get past Kansas City and the other AFC rivals on their way to a Super Bowl.

Prediction status: It’s looking good, it’s certainly not as bold as it seemed to be when I made it.

Final thoughts

Overall, I’m pretty satisfied with my predictions for this season so far. The team certainly is as competitive as I expected it to be, McDermott and Allen are in the conversation for their top awards, Elam isn’t a starter right now but it’s not due to lack of production when playing, Von Miller might not reach the 10-sack mark but there’s no doubt he’s back, McGovern at center has been a success, and this team looks like the one that can bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo.

Time will tell and I’ll be back with another article when the postseason ends. With that said, those predictions don’t look that bad right now, do they?

Catch up with all this and more during my latest edition of Leading the Charge!