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Buffalo Sports News

Sorry, Saquon: Bills’ Josh Allen Should Win 2024 NFL MVP Award

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Josh Allen MVP

The Buffalo Bills were ticketed for a retooling year after an offseason roster overhaul saw the departure of several longtime veteran starters. Instead, they’re 10-2, clinched the AFC East division title with five weeks left and remain in contention for the top seed in the AFC. That’s why quarterback Josh Allen should be heading toward his first NFL Most Valuable Player Award.

Allen’s status as the clear front-runner is not a slight to Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The former New York Giants standout is proving the devaluation of the position may have gone too far, but no NFL player is more important to his team’s success than the Bills signal-caller, and it’s not particularly close.

Yes, a lot can happen in the season’s final month, especially with Buffalo and Philly still fighting for playoff positioning. As it stands, however, it should take a catastrophic collapse from Allen for anyone else to take home MVP honors in 2024.

Josh Allen, Not Saquon Barkley, Should Win 2024 NFL MVP

Why Not Barkley?

Let’s start by examining why Barkley shouldn’t win the award despite a fantastic campaign.

Last year, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey put together a similar all-around masterclass. He completely carried the Niners offense at times. Here’s a look at CMC’s season compared to the Eagles superstar’s current pace:

  • 2023 McCaffrey: 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns (16 games)
  • 2024 Barkley: 2,502 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns (17 games)

So Barkley is averaging about 20 more yards per game and, barring a late scoring barrage, will come up a few touchdowns short of McCaffrey.

Here’s the issue: CMC wasn’t even considered a serious threat in the MVP race. He finished third behind winner Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys‘ Dak Prescott. He didn’t receive a single first-place vote.

Minnesota Vikings rusher Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win MVP. That was all the way back in 2012. It’s created some angst among fans, and possibly even voters, that it’s become a “Best QB” award. Perhaps that’s the way it should be, though. (More on that later.)

In addition, the Eagles own a star-studded offense with Barkley flanked by quarterback Jalen Hurts, wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. He also runs behind the NFL’s second-best offensive line, as graded by Pro Football Network.

If Barkley, who should win Offensive Player of the Year, missed time then the Eagles would survive. Reserve back Kenneth Gainwell is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’d hold down the fort just fine.

The same can’t be said if the Bills were without Allen, and that’s the big difference in a race for Most Valuable Player.

Allen’s Surrounding Circumstances

Allen arrived to OTAs in the spring with just one wide receiver on the roster who caught a pass from him in 2023: Khalil Shakir. Most notably, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who combined for 241 targets last year, were gone.

The Bills quarterback, along with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, started from scratch. It wasn’t always pretty, which is why the team made a midseason trade with the Cleveland Browns for wideout Amari Cooper, but Buffalo kept winning anyway.

Allen isn’t the sole reason for that success—football is a team game, after all—but his ability to take over games is the main reason. Everything else is a distant contributing factor.

Do you know who the Bills’ leader in touchdown catches is this season? It’s Mack Hollins, an eighth-year journeyman playing for his fifth NFL organization. That’s not a dig against Hollins, who’s stepped up when called upon, but rather a fact showing Allen turning lemons into lemonade.

Buffalo has been decimated by injuries this season. Wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid are among those currently sidelined. Yet, the Bills just knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, last year’s Super Bowl combatants, in back-to-back games.

Allen’s growth from a take-too-many-risks rookie into a mature, manage-the-game veteran has been on full display. The 6’5”, 237-pound signal-caller stands in the pocket longer. He goes through his progressions faster. He throws balls away instead of forcing the ball into quadruple coverage.

That said, the 28-year-old California native still has a keen sense of when it’s time to take over. The best example came against the Chiefs, when he put the game on his shoulders in a 4th-and-2 situation where he clinched the game with a 26-yard touchdown run.

Allen is the NFL’s ultimate game-changer.

Allen’s MVP Performance

It was important to discuss the surrounding circumstances before the numbers because Allen won’t finish with the most gaudy stat line this season. That’ll be back like Barkley or Derrick Henry, or another quarterback, likely Jackson, the Detroit Lions‘ Jared Goff or Cincinnati Bengals‘ Joe Burrow.

Allen doesn’t have the NFL’s best running back (Henry), the league’s best RB duo (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery) or one of the league’s best wide receiver tandems (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins), though. We already discussed the talent around Barkley. That’s important.

Again, it’s key to stress: this is a value award. Who’s the most valuable player to their team’s success. It’s not about having the best statistical season, though numbers can’t be disregarded, of course.

Those caveats aside, Allen is still having a fantastic campaign:

  • Passing: 64.6 percent completion rate, 2,691 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
  • Rushing: 334 yards, 6 touchdowns, 2 fumbles lost

The University of Wyoming product’s ability to cut down on turnovers helped him reach peak form. He turned it over 22 times last year. He’s on pace for 10 this season. That alone is a massive reason the Bills are riding a seven-game winning streak.

Allen is second in ESPN’s Total QBR (74.5) and he’s compiled an elite 85.9 overall grade from Pro Football Focus.

So, while his numbers aren’t the NFL’s best, they’re still MVP-level quality.

Quarterbacks Are Kings of the NFL

Finally, while Barkley and Henry are showing top-tier running backs can still dominate games, the bottom line remains the same: quarterbacks rule the NFL. When it comes to—back to that key word again—value, no player on the field comes close to a quarterback. That’s just the reality.

The Bills are 10-2. If backup Mitchell Trubisky was under center and all the factors—a roster overhaul, an endless string of key injuries and an average defense—were exactly the same, there’s a realistic chance Buffalo would be 2-10.

Everyone in the Bills organization, from general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott to special-teamers like “Buffalo Joe” Andreessen and resurgent kicker Tyler Bass, deserves credit for Buffalo clinching a playoff spot in early December.

Having said that, Allen isn’t just the team’s engine. He’s the transmission, battery, alternator and radiator. You don’t even have a car without him.

So, will Allen win MVP? It’s hard to say. Some analysts appear desperate for a non-QB to win the league’s highest individual honor and Barkley is giving them strong building blocks for a case. The Bills franchise cornerstone also isn’t posting any record-breaking overall numbers.

Yet, this statement feels more like a fact despite it being an opinion: no NFL player is more valuable to their team in 2024 than Josh Allen. Not even close.

Main Photo Courtesy of Mark Konezny – Imagn Images

The post Sorry, Saquon: Bills’ Josh Allen Should Win 2024 NFL MVP Award appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football.