If the Bills want to move on to the AFC Championship Game, they can’t have another letdown against the run
The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are set to tangle for the second time this season. In the first meeting, nothing went Buffalo’s way, and the Ravens absolutely dominated in a 35-10 trouncing.
The majority of the damage against the Bills came on the ground, as Baltimore racked up 271 yards on 34 carries. On the flip side, Buffalo’s offense struggled mightily to deal with Baltimore’s sticky-man coverage, and a negative game script meant that they weren’t able to stick with the run game as much as they’d have liked. The Bills managed just 236 total net yards on the night.
Baltimore gave Buffalo their first loss of the season, and if they aren’t careful, the Ravens are more than capable of dealing the Bills their final loss of the season, as well. As most commercials for legal offices will tell us, however, past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Just because the game went a certain way in October doesn’t mean it can’t go an entirely different way this Sunday.
Here are five Ravens we’re watching this week. They’re five players the Bills will need to keep their sights on in order to emerge victorious this time around.
QB Lamar Jackson
Duh. The two-time NFL MVP — and current betting favorite this season to win the award for the third time — had arguably his best career season. Jackson passed for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns — both career highs — while totaling a career-low four interceptions on the season. He added another 915 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.
In the first matchup, Jackson’s numbers weren’t eye-popping, but they didn’t have to be. He was deadly efficient, completing 13-of-18 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed six times for 54 yards and another score. If there’s any silver lining for Buffalo, it’s that Jackson began that game 11-of-13 in the first half before completing just two of his final five passes. He also completed nine passes to running backs, which is likely a byproduct of the fact that Buffalo’s top three linebackers in that game were Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, and Nicholas Morrow.
The Bills have stymied Jackson in the past, but they failed in their one try to flummox him when he has a future Hall of Fame running back sharing the backfield with him. Buffalo had success with delayed pressure early in the second half of the first meeting, and I’d expect a more attacking look this Sunday. It’s going to take a tremendous effort to slow Jackson down.
RB Derrick Henry
The King ran roughshod over the Bills in October, carrying 24 times for 199 yards and a touchdown, adding three catches for 10 yards and another score. The only reason Henry didn’t have a third touchdown is that he fumbled at the goal line in the fourth quarter, leading to fullback Patrick Ricard scoring on a recovery.
The key to this game lies in stopping Henry. If the Bills can keep the Ravens in 3rd & Long, they’ll at least be able to keep Baltimore fairly predictable in what they’ll do. If they’re in constant 3rd & Short scenarios, they’re a nightmare to defend, as the read-option game with Jackson and Henry is a deadly combination.
Will Buffalo counter Baltimore’s beef up front with a third linebacker? They did it in October with little success, but a trio of linebackers that includes Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard in addition to Dorian Williams is much better than the Williams/Spector/Morrow trio they ran out there in the first meeting.
Were the Bills more apt to do that because they were removing Cam Lewis from the field instead of Taron Johnson, who missed the game with a fractured forearm? We’ll see, but the chess match starts here.
WR Rashod Bateman
Tight end Mark Andrews is an obvious thought here, and Pro Bowl wideout Zay Flowers would be worth a big mention if he were sure to be playing. However, Bateman is an underrated player who just has a knack for finding space. He didn’t do much against Buffalo in the first meeting, but he did catch a long ball to move the Ravens into plus territory.
Jackson will have to complete some passes to his receivers, and if Flowers is missing, then Bateman is going to be his best available target on the outside. Last time around, the Bills focused on taking away the tight ends, and the Ravens countered by using the running backs in the passing game.
If the Bills look to take the running backs away this time, they might leave their corners in one-on-one situations. While Christian Benford on Bateman is a win for the Bills, it’s a better matchup for the Ravens if Bateman ends up against Rasul Douglas.
Look for the Ravens to try and hit some crossers if the Bills play man, forcing Douglas to play chaser all over the field, which isn’t his specialty. Bateman had a solid year (45 catches, 756 yards, nine touchdowns on 72 targets), so he can’t be overlooked.
OLB Kyle Van Noy
The veteran has been a thorn in Buffalo’s side for years now, notching a total of 6.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits against Buffalo in 10 career games against them. Those totals are career-highs for Van Noy against any other opponent, as he did damage with the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots before moving on to Baltimore.
Van Noy had two sacks in the first meeting, and Baltimore’s defense flummoxed quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills’ pass protection on multiple occasions with simulated pressures, overload blitzes, simulated pressures that turned into overload blitzes, and general tomfoolery around the line of scrimmage.
Buffalo’s offensive line allowed just 14 sacks all season, and three of them came against Baltimore. Stonewalling Van Noy is going to be a big part of how they compete on Sunday.
CB Brandon Stephens
Buffalo’s game plan last time was to attack Stephens on the outside, and it didn’t really work. According to Pro Football Reference, he allowed just two completions on seven attempts his way.
Those completions, though, went for a total of 45 yards, as they were both big-time grabs by rookie Keon Coleman. Now, Coleman also had a big drop in the first half, and tight end Dalton Kincaid failed to bring in what would have been a tough grab in double-coverage while Stephens was around him.
I can’t see the Bills trying Marlon Humphrey too often, as the First-Team All-Pro is as lockdown as there is. I think the Bills would be wise to use a game plan similar to what they did against the Detroit Lions—free the running backs!—but they’ll need to attack outside, as well.
It’s going to be Stephens who they attack, as he allowed a 64% completion rate, four touchdowns, and a 106.1 passer rating against this season.