The Bills’ first postseason opponent could very well be determined on Saturday in Week 17.
Following Wednesday, the Buffalo Bills know they won’t be the one seed in the AFC playoffs. We also know they won’t be the four seed, because the Houston Texans are locked in there. The Bills are either going to be the three seed (with two losses and a Ravens Week 18 win) or much more likely the two seed, which means their wild card weekend opponent is likely playing on Saturday in Week 17.
Why the Bills won’t play the Steelers or Ravens in the wild card round
The loser of the AFC North race will be the top wild card team in the fifth seed; both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers have season sweeps of the Denver Broncos and Lon Angeles Chargers.
Which team will the Bills play in the wild card round?
With two-games leads in the wild card race with two games left to play, the Chargers and Broncos are the likely teams to settle into the sixth and seventh spots to be Buffalo’s first opponent in the 2024 postseason and both are in action on Saturday. A third possible team is the Bengals, and they play Saturday, too.
First the Chargers travel to New England to take on the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. Eastern before the Broncos go to Cincinnati to face the Bengals at 4:30 Eastern.
In Week 18, the Broncos play the Chiefs backups while the Chargers play the Raiders. If the Bengals beat the Broncos in Week 17, they could get their record to 9-8 with a Week 18 win over the Steelers. (If the Chargers and Broncos finish with the same record, Los Angeles wins based on head-to-head wins, dropping the Broncos into the final wild card spot.)
The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins are both still alive, too. The Colts plays the Giants and Jaguars over the final two weeks, they have a head-to-head win over the Dolphins, and will have a better AFC record than the Bengals and beat the Broncos in tiebreakers.
The Dolphins would have to win two cold-weather games to get to the postseason and need lots of help from the opponents of the Colts, Broncos, and Chargers down the stretch.
All that being said, the Broncos are the overwhelming favorites to be the Bills’ first opponent in the postseason followed by the Chargers. Get a closer look on Saturday.
AFC standings during Week 17
1. z-Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. y-Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. x-Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4. y-Houston Texans (9-7)
5. x-Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wins over DEN)*
7. Denver Broncos (9-6, losses to LA)*
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8, 6-5 AFC)*
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8, 5-5 AFC)*
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8, 4-6 AFC)*
11. New York Jets (4-11) — eliminated
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12, 3-7 AFC. win over JAX) — eliminated
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12, win over TEN, 3-7 AFC, loss to CLE) — eliminated
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12, loss to JAX, 3-7 AFC) — eliminated
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12, 3-8) — eliminated
16. New England Patriots (3-12, 2-8) — eliminated
Teams with an asterisk (*) have been eliminated from divisional contention
Teams with an (x) have clinched a playoff spot
Teams with a (y) have clinched their division
Teams with a (z) have clinched homefield advantage and a first-round bye.