They have four games against good teams plus a bye
The Buffalo Bills have a good run defense. Or they have a bad run defense. Or their run defense is just okay. I suppose it depends on who you ask.
The Buffalo Bills are off to their best start through 10 games since the 1990s. They’re sitting at 8-2 after a 30-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on the road, and have a commanding lead in the AFC East. They’ve won five straight games after losing back-to-back contests against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans earlier this season.
It’s those two games against AFC projected playoff teams, however, that will really give some members of Bills Mafia some trepidation as they look tabard to the next four regular-season games for their beloved Bills. And specifically, the next four games may help provide clarity to a particularly well-discussed topic for Bills fans: whether or not the team has a run defense problem or not.
Buffalo faces the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, without rookie Keon Coleman and potentially without top target Amari Cooper. They then go on a bye, which could see them return both receivers to health. After, they get to stay home for a game against the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, who have just gotten all-world running back Christian McCaffrey back from injury. Continuing the NFC West trend, the newly (somewhat) rejuvenated Los Angeles Rams host the Bills on December 8 with Los Angeles’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from early season injuries along with a finally-getting-healthy offensive line. The Bills finish this four-game sled with potentially the best team in the NFC in the Detroit Lions, whose style has given the Bills problems with their physical running.
That’s a doozy of a stretch for Buffalo. One that could end with a 12-2 record and potentially the one or two seed in the AFC, and simultaneously one that could end in a 8-6 record and people calling for the firing of head coach Sean McDermott al la post-Denver game in 2023.
One thing is for sure though. Regardless of record after this four game run, we’ll have a lot more data than we currently do regarding the Buffalo Bills’ run defense, which has been a hot topic of late.
In terms of rushing EPA given up in total and rushing success rate against, the Bills actually rank highly in the league. Buffalo ranks seventh-best in the NFL in rushing success rate against and 11th-best in the NFL in total rushing EPA against.
Even though it FEELS like the Bills are bad at run defense they remain one of the better teams when it comes to advanced metrics that have context.
Always good to zoom out and compare to the rest of the league.
KC and Spags though pic.twitter.com/Uw8o9JPdb5
— Aaron Quinn (@AaronQuinn716) November 11, 2024
This has contributed to the Bills’ defense being 10th in the NFL in EPA per play against.
But the counting stats look a little different. The Bills are 15th in the NFL in rushing yards against at 123.2 per game, but they’ve given up 10 rushes of 20 yards or more, which is tied for fifth-worst in the league. This distinction contributes to why it simply feels like the Bills’ run defense is worse than the advanced metrics indicate.
Proponents of the Bills’ strategy, which revolves around them frequently utilizing light boxes and playing nickel in the face of heavier offensive personnel, say that the system is working, pointing to the overall advanced metrics on defensive success rate and EPA per play. Critics of the current defense will point to the fact that team like the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens still had very productive days against Buffalo even with the focus on capping explosive passes at the expense of run plays (Miami was second in the NFL in offensive EPA per play in the week when they played the Bills. Baltimore was third in the NFL in the week when they played Buffalo). They worry that the strategy works against inferior teams when the Bills can take them out of their game script by jumping to an early lead, but may not hold up to a team with an effective running game who can hold Buffalo down on defense.
Those types of teams are coming. The Chiefs, Lions, and 49ers can all be considered teams with tough defenses (all top 12 in EPA per play surrendered), and all four of the upcoming teams have good running games (all top 12 in rushing success rate).
So we can argue and debate the status of the Bills’ run defense all we want right now, but the answers feel like they’re coming one way or another very soon.
What’s your predicted record for the Bills over their next four games and how do you think the run defense will perform? Sound off in the comments below.
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!