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Titans vs. Bills Preview: Josh Allen, Buffalo on Week 7 Upset Alert

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Buffalo Bills wide receover Keon Coleman

The Buffalo Bills (4-2) picked up an important, albeit ugly, win over the New York Jets on Monday to create some separation atop the AFC East. Now they’ll attempt to keep climbing the conference standings as they welcome the Tennessee Titans (1-4) to Highmark Stadium.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is putting together an MVP-caliber season, and he’ll have a new weapon to work with Sunday following the team’s acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns. It was a much-needed addition as the offense’s “everybody eats” approach began to stall out in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the Titans’ season is already on the brink as they prepare to play on the road three times in the next four weeks. They’ll visit the Bills, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Chargers. Their play must improve considerably, or the focus will soon shift from the playoffs to the No. 1 pick conversation.

Buffalo and Tennessee are scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on CBS.

Titans-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 7)

X-Factors

Titans: LB Kenneth Murray Jr.

Tennessee’s offensive struggles have overshadowed an outstanding start by its defense. Here are some notable rankings under defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson:

  • Yards allowed per game: 248.8 (1st in the NFL)
  • Yards allowed per play: 4.3 (1st)
  • Yards allowed per pass attempt: 5.0 (1st)
  • Opponent completion percentage: 58.7 (3rd)
  • Opponent third-down conversion rate: 31.8% (5th)

There are even some numbers that show the defense is playing better than those already strong results:

Those stats show the unit is strong at baseline, and it also features an inside linebacker in Murray who does the one thing that really throws off Buffalo’s offense: pressure through the middle. The 2020 first-round pick has tallied 39 total tackles and two sacks through five games.

Allen tends to escape and make plays when pressured around the edge. When the pass-rushers come through the ‘A’ gaps, however, he’s far less dynamic. It forces him to make quick throws, and Buffalo receivers have struggled to gain instant separation. That was a key reason for the Cooper trade.

While Murray has made an impact as a blitzer, he’s struggled in coverage. He’s a potential liability against Dalton Kincaid. So, Wilson will likely lean on Murray’s pressure skills and hope fellow linebacker Ernest Jones IV can slow down the Bills tight end.

Interior linemen Jeffery Simmons and Sebastian Joseph-Day can also help the Titans’ chances by getting pressure in Allen’s face early and often.

Bills: WR Keon Coleman

Buffalo finally started to use Coleman properly against the Jets. Twice on the team’s go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter, he faced single coverage on the outside. Allen gave him a pair of nice back-shoulder throws that resulted in first downs.

Coleman faced sky-high expectations as the 33rd overall pick in this year’s draft. The 21-year-old Florida State product doesn’t have game-breaking traits, though. He’s more of a situational matchup winner rather than a clear-cut No. 1 receiver, and that’s OK.

Cooper will likely be limited in his first game while getting up to speed with the team’s playbook. Shakir is still working his way back to full strength from an ankle injury. There will be a lot of mixing and matching with receivers against the Titans as a result.

When those three are on the field together, however, Coleman should exclusively see single coverage. His ability to take advantage of those situations will be a crucial determining factor in the Bills’ true offensive upside.

For this week, Buffalo could lean more heavily on the rookie now that he’s starting to find a rhythm with Allen on those intermediate routes.

Key Matchup

Titans RB Tony Pollard vs. Bills LB Dorian Williams

Pollard is enjoying a productive start to the campaign. He’s recorded 421 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in five games. He accumulated those numbers despite a modest 64.8 percent snap share while splitting work with Tyjae Spears.

Now, with Spears sidelined by a hamstring injury, the former Dallas Cowboys running back should assume a three-down workhorse role for the Titans. It’ll make him the most important player on the field Sunday not named Josh Allen.

Pollard matches up with a Bills defense that ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game (140.2) and dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry (5.3).

Williams is a major reason for those struggles stopping the run. Although he’s tied for third in the NFL with 60 total tackles, his underwhelming 62.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus is a better representation of his lackluster play.

The second-year linebacker’s play identification has been brutal at times. It’s led him to take some downright terrible routes to ball carriers. A 42-yard run by the Jets’ Breece Hall on Monday night was a perfect example of those issues:

Buffalo is hoping Pro Bowl linebacker Matt Milano will return by December. Williams’ problems, both against the run and in pass coverage, may force the front office to at least consider a trade before the Nov. 5 deadline in case Milano suffers a setback in his recovery from a bicep injury.

For now, opponents will likely continue to attack Williams when he’s on the field.

Final Score Prediction: 21-20 Bills

Don’t be surprised if this game ends up far closer than it looks on paper. The Titans may even pull off a road upset in Orchard Park.

Buffalo’s offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders right now and Tennessee’s defense is one of the NFL’s best. That alone is enough to make it a low-scoring contest where field position is paramount.

Correspondingly, turnovers will be critical. Although that sounds like good news for the Bills on the surface—their turnover differential is plus-eight (second in the NFL) and the Titans’ is minus-seven (31st)—those things tend to regress over time. Last year, the best regular-season turnover differential across 17 games was only plus-12. So, Buffalo isn’t going to enjoy its current fortune forever.

It’s purely a guess, but it feels like the bounces in Sunday’s game may favor Tennessee. Add in a strong defense and a rushing attack that should be able to control the clock, and all it may take is an ill-timed turnover or two to flip this game toward the underdog.

That said, Allen’s presence is the one thing that should allow the Bills to pick up another win. He’s one of the few players capable of completely taking over a game by himself. He’ll likely rise to the occasion if Buffalo does find itself on upset alert in the fourth quarter.

In the big picture, the Bills’ stock may rise throughout the season. Cooper will be a difference-maker for the offense and the defense should get healthier over time. In particular, the possible return of Milano would be massive.

Right now, however, they are trying to work through struggles in all three phases. That makes every opponent dangerous, even a struggling one like the Titans.

Main Photo: [Lucas Boland] – USA Today Sports

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