The weather forecast favors the home team, if Allen has ice in his veins.
It’s going to be chilly in Orchard Park, NY Sunday evening when the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens take the field. Despite what Steve Tasker has said there is no “might” about it.
According to Rotowire, it should be about 16º Fahrenheit with a 59% chance of snow at kickoff time. There will also be winds blowing diagonally across the frozen turf at Highmark Stadium — and wind always makes it feel even colder than it is. According to the official game forecast, “The wintry conditions may impact passing and catching.”
Winter is here. #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/Pt5s1mWsmn
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 17, 2025
Seems like a recipe for a disaster for a team whose quarterback has almost 3,000 passing yards in the playoffs. Except it’s not. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 12-2 in games played in sub-freezing conditions and has led his team to an NFL best +167-point differential when the mercury in the thermostat doesn’t climb past 32.
Since he entered the league in 2018, Allen leads all quarterbacks in touchdowns per game when temperatures are at or below the freezing mark. Allen has 2.86 touchdowns per game — almost a full half score more than Kirk Cousins with 2.43 who has the second most and more than a half point ahead of Joe Burrow who sits at 2.33.
With Sunday night’s forecast expected to reach frigid temperatures, Josh Allen has thrived in the cold and led the Bills to a 12-2 record and NFL-best +167 point differential when the temperature drops below freezing.
More stats heading into Sunday night ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/xbnUijQtHe
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) January 18, 2025
Obviously, despite the Baltimore Ravens’ indoor practice being more questioned, neither the Bills nor their opponents for Sunday’s playoff game have spent much time outside this week as conditions in both cities have proven hazardous. However, if weather is going to be the difference maker, the edge is going to the home team this week.
While Baltimore opened doors to their practice facility on Thursday and practiced outside on Friday, the Bills have the advantage of having held their Friday practice in Highmark Stadium, the site for Sunday’s can’t-miss-TV special.
Bills doing the team’s typical Friday practice in the stadium. RB Ray Davis in a red non-contact jersey as he remains in concussion protocol. pic.twitter.com/HOMfvjgQRf
— Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg) January 17, 2025
And, despite what Ravens’ special teams coach Chris Horton thinks, the turf at Highmark Stadium is not heated. Is Baltimore preparing incorrectly?
Special teams coordinator Chris Horton on the field conditions in Buffalo: pic.twitter.com/K2GbcnwPmy
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 16, 2025
Regardless of the field, the snow, the wind, the chill, this game is going to come down to the play of two men: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. How they handle the elements on Sunday will be a big factor, but ultimately, it’s going to be on their shoulders — or so the media will spend all weekend telling us.
So then, with two players who are so closely linked — both drafted in 2018, both mobile, dual threats, both locked into a season-long MVP battle, both now battling for the postseason QB rushing leader tag – will experience be the difference?
While Josh Allen has played in 14 sub-freezing games (not to mention he played his college ball in Wyoming where it is not warm), Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has only played in four games when the temperature has failed to reach above 32 degrees — and the coldest he has played? Twenty-seven. That’s a full 11º warmer than it will be on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson’s 10 coldest games of his NFL career (at kickoff), per @TruMediaSports.
Sunday’s game in Buffalo will be his coldest by a wide margin. pic.twitter.com/YkIQqlwTu8
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) January 15, 2025
Let’s be honest though, Allen hasn’t been perfect on frozen tundra. In fact, both of his sub-freezing losses came at Highmark Stadium. The first of those was in his rookie season when, after going up 14-3 in the first quarter, Allen was only able to lead his offense to single field goals in each of the next three quarters. The Jets mounted a fourth-quarter comeback to steal the win 27-23.
Allen didn’t lose another game in frigid conditions again until last year’s divisional round of the NFL Playoffs when, once again, it was an end-of-game scenario and Allen couldn’t get a score in the fourth quarter. Instead, it was Patrick Mahomes who led the Kansas City Chiefs to the late game touchdown to leave Buffalo with the 27-24 come-from-behind win on his way to another Super Bowl.
There was a third game that Allen lost that was at the freezing mark, but as it was not below 32º at kickoff, it isn’t technically classified as sub-freezing. That game — a divisional round loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in January 2023. It was a game Buffalo never led, and while the weather wasn’t sub-freezing, Allen was definitely sub-par leading the Bills to just 10 points.
The question will be, is this year’s version of Allen — the one who rewrote record books on a weekly basis, the one who has sat out 11 quarters of play because he has put his team in a position where they couldn’t lose in seven different games — going to be the version that the Bills have gotten 12 times in the freezing temperatures?
The one who completed the NFL’s first perfect game when leading his team to a 41-17 win in conditions similar to what they will see on Sunday, the one who earlier this season ran, passed, and caught a touchdown in a game where the snow fell so fast and so continuously that snow angels were the norm and hashmarks disappeared? Or will Buffalo get the version that froze along with the field in the past two divisional games?