Our last serving of 2024 QB STEW: Statistical Talent Evaluation Worksheet
The 2024 NFL regular season has concluded. Given that the Buffalo Bills spent Week 18 of the regular season locked into the two seed of the AFC playoff bracket regardless of outcome, the dialogue around the team over the last few days has been absent the typical post-game analysis, film review, and “what went well/what didn’t go well” story lines. Instead, the conversations have revolved around two main items:
- The Denver Broncos
- The NFL MVP Award
Quarterback Josh Allen had another fantastic season, given even more weight when taking into account the offseason narratives about him. Mainly, the loss of five 2023 Bills captains (including wide receiver Stefon Diggs), along with the “turnover-prone” label. Both narratives have been combated to the utmost degree by Allen this season, with his passing efficiency metrics remaining fantastic absent Diggs while avoiding the raw interceptions totals previously used to discredit him.
But overall this season, what do the advanced holistic quarterback-centric metrics say about the way Allen has performed relative to his peers?
Let’s cook up another bowl of STEW (Statistical Talent Evaluation Worksheet). For the uninitiated, QB STEW is a metric amalgamation I concocted in an attempt to have the flaws of one metric accommodated in the formula by the presence of another metric.
You can find the original article with reasoning here, although it’s important to note that DVOA and passer rating are no longer part of the concoction.
Some takeaways:
Lamar is number one in STEW and was voted first-team All Pro. Odds are high he’s the 2024 NFL MVP
QB STEW has failed to accurately predict the QB MVP one year since its inception: 2023, when Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen all had higher QB STEW than Lamar Jackson, but Lamar was the quarterback of the number-one AFC seed and was awarded the MVP.
Allen’s CPOE dragged down his average ranking this year, which tracks with the qualitative factors at play. Historically, Patrick Mahomes has seen this phenomenon, where his efficiency metrics will all be very good and his CPOE will be in the teens.
It’s primarily based on yards after catch: if a quarterback completes a pass for 30 yards and 25 of them are air yards, there’s a good chance that pass had a relatively low expected probability of completion, and that play will likely pull up that QB’s CPOE. If the pass completed is 30 yards and only five of them are air yards, chances are that pass had a fairly high expected completion percentage (depth of target is a meaningful factor in expected completion probability).
In both cases, 30 yards were gained. In one case, CPOE was notably increased. In the other, it was impacted in a very small way. The differential between a QBs EPA per play/QBR/ANYA/PFF grade and their CPOE is usually a sign of solid scheming and YAC assistance from his supporting cast, which tracks with the story line of the season for the Bills.
Dak Prescott wasn’t playing well even before his injury
One under-reported story line from the 2024 regular season was that Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott wasn’t playing at a high level even before the hamstring injury that sidelined him for a large chunk of the season. This is even more notable due to Prescott’s signing of a NFL-record 4-year, $240 million deal just before the start of the year.
With the Cowboys currently in limbo on potentially bringing back head coach Mike McCarthy, it’s fair to wonder if Prescott’s play should be a factor in other decisions the organization makes given how much they just committed to him.
Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston fall off
Early in each of their 2024 starting tenures, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston of the Cleveland Browns both looked like 2025 starting quarterbacks somewhere in the league. At the last STEW update, Wilson ranked 7th in the NFL and Winston was 17th.
In the last few weeks, they’ve fallen to 17th and 26th respectively. Wilson still has an opportunity to put his stamp on a job next year with an upcoming game against the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but Jameis Winston was benched in Cleveland (which is likely to be due to other factors apart from his interceptions, given that Cleveland now owns the second overall pick in the draft) and now both are unsure of having clear cut starting jobs when the 2025 regular season kicks off.
…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Rumblings Cast Network — see more in my LinkTree!