I make, and rest, my case
The 2025 NFL Draft is roughly one month away and all of the major dust regarding free agency has settled. That means there’s a good chance that the Buffalo Bills’ roster we see today is pretty much it until the rookies start flying off the board.
If you ask me, One Bills Drive should use a premium pick on a defensive tackle. This is true, regardless of the current roster, moves made in free agency, and the unfortunate suspensions along the defensive line.
Sean McDermott (indirectly) told me so
I know what you’re all thinking. Skare is about to spit some stats to show that the current roster of defensive tackles isn’t up to snuff. Perhaps you’re right about that too. Should I discuss all the ways that a defensive effort starts up front and center?
If so, maybe I’d focus on run defense stats. Giving up 4.51 yards per rush, Buffalo was 19th in the league during 2024 — that’s not great (average by my rule of four if you care about that sort of thing).
Of course I could counter my own thought on the matter and point out that in all areas of the field, the best aggregate defense against the run came from runs up the middle. The Bills allowed the fifth least amount of yards dead center up the field, with 3.5 yards on average. They also faced the ninth-most attempts at that direction. Against the guards was a different matter, so let’s call the run defense “complicated.”
Maybe I should discuss pass rush, where pressure up the middle can be a big factor. I might cite the Bills’ 23rd ranking in sacks per pass-rush attempt. Buffalo’s two primary defensive tackles combined for 5.5 sacks all of last season, and a combined seven from all players at the position. That’s not ideal.
Let’s be clear, all of the above arguments are valid. As noted though, Sean McDermott himself (indirectly) is telling me that he wants more out Buffalo’s defensive tackles. One of the more common concerns from Bills Mafia is McDermott’s insistence on heavily rotating defensive linemen. Toward that end, many of you might remember I followed snap counts for Buffalo Rumblings for a period of time.
When it comes to rotation on the defensive line, McDermott’s teams aren’t afraid to keep a guy on the field, but only for players they seem to consider upper tier. If we take things back to the Kyle Williams days, Williams was on the field about two-thirds of the time under McDermott. It wasn’t just a Kyle Williams thing either. This trend holds true along the entire defensive line. When McDermott thinks highly enough of a player, the whole “too much rotation” thing gets tossed out the window.
Let’s refine this with an Ed Oliver lens. Snap counts for Oliver show he was present on the field 68% of the time in 2023. He was mid-50s for 2024, but factoring out time lost to injury and Oliver was on the field 66% of the time when appearing in games. The Bills seem to think highly enough of Oliver to classify him in that upper-tier category. His contract reflects this stance as well.
Now combine that with the other numbers up above. If Ed Oliver isn’t going anywhere in all likelihood, what do we have for a partner in crime? DaQuan Jones seemingly had the coaches’ confidence in 2022. When adjusting for games he appeared in, he saw the field 61% of the time. That fell precipitously in 2023 (likely in large part due to injury) and didn’t climb all the way back up in 2024.
DeWayne Carter was selected by Buffalo in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft and it’s possible he’ll take a leap. He saw the field 42% of the time in games where he appeared, but the number of games he hit the field was limited due to injury.
For me, two narratives are intersecting here. I don’t know if I’m capturing everything well up above, but to me the snap counts seem to suggest ongoing experimentation. This likely means the Bills are looking for more from the position. Right in tune with that narrative is the stats narrative that shows defensive weaknesses that are at least partially at the feet of the interior defensive line.
At the point these two thoughts collide we get my wish list. More than perhaps any other position on the team, a true game-wrecker in the middle of the defensive front would do wonders for — well just about everything.
This is perhaps a bit tough to formally put into words, because I’ve always liked Ed Oliver. The same’s true of DaQuan Jones too (though in his case I can at least cite age as a factor). DeWayne Carter is “incomplete” at worst.
With all of that said though, defensive tackle making the leap from “guys I’ve always liked” to a more elite level of terminology is number one on my wish list this offseason. The 2025 NFL Draft may just be the best place to make that leap.