This is one offseason signing that hasn’t paid off. Could things change in the playoffs?
The Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos are set to play in the Wild Card Round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs this week. A 1 p.m. EST start at Highmark Stadium is the setting for the game, which is the sixth-straight season where the Bills will play a Wild Card game. After losing in the opening round of the playoffs in 2019 at the Houston Texans, Buffalo has hosted a Wild Card game every year since 2020 — winning each time.
This time, Buffalo’s high-octane offense faces off against Denver’s stout defense. It’s a matchup that isn’t too dissimilar to their playoff opener last year, when a red-hot Bills offense had to deal with a tough, physical Pittsburgh Steelers defense. The biggest difference between the Broncos and those Steelers, though, is the quarterback — where Buffalo won’t be bailed out by a subpar player in Mason Rudolph. They’ll instead deal with a spectacular rookie in Bo Nix.
If Buffalo wants to continue its winning streak in the Wild Card Round — and then start a new streak en route to the team’s first Lombardi Trophy — they’ll need big-time performances across the roster. Here are the five Bills we’re watching in this week’s Wild Card game.
QB Josh Allen
Duh. This guy is must-see TV every week, as Allen makes the impossible look routine on a daily basis. His career playoff numbers are just absurd, as he’s notched 21 touchdown passes against just four interceptions, 2,723 passing yards, 563 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns in 10 playoff games.
Denver’s defense will give the Bills a challenge, as they have a phenomenal pass rush (59 sacks in the regular season) and they play tight man coverage. Allen has performed well against man coverage this season, and it often gives him a chance to use his legs to break big plays on scrambles, as well. If Allen can stay in the same headspace he’s been since Week 6, the Bills are in great shape.
RB Ty Johnson
Obviously, James Cook is going to play a big role in this one. But, it could be Buffalo’s third-down back, Johnson, who sees some extra looks in the passing game. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has done a great job drawing up looks for his running backs against man coverage, and Denver’s linebackers are weak in coverage.
Whether it’s Johnson or Cook, or tight ends Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid, or even Khalil Shakir out of the slot off a rub route, exploiting the intermediate-middle of the Broncos’ defense might be the Bills’ best bet this week. Johnson had a huge game against the Detroit Lions earlier in the year, catching five passes for 114 yards against a club that plays a lot of man defense. Denver’s defensive unit is much better than Detroit’s current M.A.S.H. unit, but the fact remains that the running backs need to be ready to work as receivers this weekend.
WR Curtis Samuel
Buffalo’s receivers struggle to gain separation. That’s not pessimism; it’s just the truth. Samuel was brought in partially because of his ability to separate against man coverage, but a turf toe issue definitely hampered him early in the season.
Most of Samuel’s routes have been swing passes from the slot. I wonder if this weekend is one where Brady has a real plan to use the veteran free-agent signee, as Samuel was one of the league’s better wideouts against man coverage just last season.
Buffalo’s main trio of receivers of late has been Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Khalil Shakir, but if Samuel can break loose for a few plays, he could have a big impact on this matchup.
DT Ed Oliver
The Bills need to pressure Bo Nix. They also need to make Denver one-dimensional by shutting down their rushing attack. That second point hasn’t been difficult for most teams this season, as the Broncos are just 16th in total rushing yards and 21st in rushing yards per attempt on the season. However, Denver’s 4.1 yards per carry average is less than the 4.5 yards per attempt that Buffalo allows per run this year.
Oliver and the middle of Buffalo’s defense need to play stout, assignment-sound defense. And, in some obvious passing situations, defensive coordinator Bobby Babich needs to utilize some stunts and loops to free up rushers out of simulated pressure looks.
If the defense can confuse Nix for even a second, forcing him to hold the ball for a beat, it will help the pass rush. If those free rushers can alter his throws, then the Bills can force some turnovers and win this thing.
The Safeties
I can’t decide which of Taylor Rapp or Damar Hamlin I’m most concerned about, so let’s go with “all of the above” on this one. Both players were banged up at the end of the season, with Hamlin only making it back last week and Rapp playing just two of the team’s final four games.
Neither player looked great in last week’s loss against the New England Patriots, and while it’s hard to evaluate them given the fact that it was mostly reserves in front of them, they were out of position on a handful of big throws from rookie quarterback Joe Milton III, including one ridiculous pass where Rapp allowed Kayshon Boutte to break wide open for a touchdown.
Nix is much better than Milton III, and Courtland Sutton is significantly more talented than Boutte. Buffalo’s safeties need to knock off the rust and play their best moving forward.