How those potential changes could impact the Orange and the rest of the ACC.
This year saw the Syracuse Orange and the rest of the NCAA football world battle to earn a coveted spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, but another significant change to the college football postseason could soon be on the horizon.
This week marks a big one for the entire future of the CFP going forward. Athletic directors from the SEC and Big Ten — the two biggest conferences in college sports and the ones with the most influence right now — are meeting together once again.
What’s up for discussion? An expanded College Football Playoff… where the SEC and Big Ten each could gain significant ground in terms of representation.
Within the Big Ten & SEC, momentum builds for an expanded playoff with multi-AQs per league.
Ahead of the SEC-B1G joint meeting, the industry is closer than ever to a new CFP, reimagined league title games, 9-game SEC sked & SEC-B1G scheduling packagehttps://t.co/Rcl99Wndj9
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) February 17, 2025
Between both those major conference, there’s momentum to expand the postseason to add either 14 or 16 teams and assign multiple automatic qualifiers, according to reporting from Yahoo! Sports. For the SEC and Big Ten, those AQs would be as much as four per league, according to Yahoo!.
For context, let’s break down both what was the College Football Playoff model used for this past season and what this new proposal would entail.
Current/inaugural CFP:
- 12 teams
- 5 conference champions (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the best Group of Five)
- 7 at-large spots
- Four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes in the first round
- No re-seeding after each game
THE FIRST-EVER 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET IS SET pic.twitter.com/LPwpoxdzLM
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 8, 2024
Under the proposal gaining stream — being described by officials as the 4-4-2-2-1+1 model (writer’s note: not confusing at all, right?!) — here’s how it would work:
- 4 AQs for the SEC
- 4 AQs for the Big Ten
- 2 AQs for the ACC
- 2 AQs for the Big 12
- 1 AQ for the highest-ranked Group of Five champion
- 3 at-large spots (one intended for Notre Dame if it finishes inside the top-14)
- No bye games (at least in the 16-game playoff format)
Here’s how this year’s CFP field would’ve looked like had this 16-team format been implemented:
SEC AQs: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Alabama
Big Ten AQs: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana
ACC AQs: Clemson and SMU
Big 12: Arizona State and Iowa State/BYU
Highest Group of Five champion: Boise State
Three at-large bids: Notre Dame, Miami (FL) and Ole Miss
However, that’s all speculation and just based on looking at the final CFP rankings. Would a 10-2 Miami really get in over Ole Miss (9-3) or South Carolina (9-3)? Just a thought.
That hypothetical, however, brings us back to the main point at hand — the SEC and Big Ten are using their leverage and wisely doing so (in their eyes), even at the expense of the support or with the risk of alienating a substantial portion of the fanbases out there (mainly the ones not affiliated with the SEC or Big Ten).
The other elephant in the room, for both the ACC and the rest of these conferences: the money, as well documented by Yahoo! Sports reporter Ross Dellenger.
From the standpoint of Syracuse and the ACC, the mountain to climb would certainly get a lot steeper under this model.
Based on using just the 2024 rankings and records, Syracuse if it were to be in the hunt for the playoff couldn’t lose more than three games (assuming it didn’t win or make the ACC Championship). To be honest, maybe two losses is the bar.
And speaking of the conference championship, that’s another possible change for the ACC. Commissioner Jim Phillips confirmed as recently as a month ago that the conference could look to have conversations to change the format for the ACC Championship game. The main proposal: the best team in the league gets a bye, and the next two best teams face off (*cough* tactical maneuver *cough*).
From the lens of just Syracuse, it would also theoretically lower the amount of room for error, at least in this new format.
Say the ACC only has two guaranteed spots… and fringe chance to maybe get one of those at-large bids. Using Syracuse’s schedule from 2024, that would’ve meant essentially had to beat two of Stanford, Boston College and Pittsburgh. The Orange (5-3) versus the ACC finished in a four-way tie for fourth in the conference. If the ACC championship game was between the second- and third-best teams in the conference, it would’ve needed just one more win.
The problem: when the schedule beefs up by a ton in 2025 compared to 2024, well, the mountain is damn near impossible to climb.
Take next year’s football schedule. Assuming wins over Colgate and UConn, Syracuse would need at least six wins against any of Clemson, Duke, SMU, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami and Boston College. Possible? Maybe, but again, those potential games fans might think they’ll be favored in (namely GT, UNC, Duke BC and Pitt) would all need to be wins. If Syracuse gets a loss, it might need that extra win against a very strong and probably highly ranked opponent.
The key date to watch for is later this month. The CFP Management Committee is set to meet next Tuesday. That’s where the SEC-Big Ten combo could unveil this proposal.
And with it, potentially a lot of change and more hurdles the Orange and the rest of the conference will have to navigate through.