How the numbers say Syracuse is performing on the offensive end.
A intriguing trend on offense emerged in the aftermath of the Syracuse Orange coming up just short in a 77-73 home loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday.
Out of Syracuse’s 67 total field goal attempts, almost half (roughly 48%) were from three. I immediately thought to myself: surely this has to be an anomaly of volume from behind the line, right?
Sure enough, it was.
Syracuse’s 32 three-point attempts were actually the most in a game so far in the 2024-25 season. It also marked the third time in four games Syracuse has taken at least 24 threes in a game, with the number of attempts higher now compared to the start of the year.
Syracuse averaged around 19 threes per game in non-conference. That’s now up to 21.4 attempts per game against the ACC and 23 APG if you exclude Syracuse’s first game against Notre Dame back in December. Considering Syracuse’s early struggles from three to start the year (highlighted on Dec. 20), it’s certainly an interesting turn of events.
With the Orange now at basically the halfway mark in conference play and about two-thirds through the entire 2024-25 season, now feels like the right time to take stock of this recent growth in three-point volume and more of the data behind the team’s offense. The focus specifically will focus on three questions:
- In what locations on the court is Syracuse getting (or not getting) shots up?
- How efficient (or inefficient) are the Orange?
- Which players are most (or least) responsible for the team’s scoring output so far?
Where are the Orange getting their shots?
One of the big takeaways from all the numbers: Syracuse over the course of the year is still in love with getting its shots up from upper-paint and the mid-range.
Nearly 40% (38.2%) of the Orange’s total field goals this year are from inside the paint but not directly around the basket or from mid-range. Syracuse is about 4% higher than all of Division I in both those categories in terms of volume, according to CBB Analytics:
Chart and data according to CBB Analytics.
Where does Syracuse trail compared to the rest of the D1 schools? The volume is below-average in three zones: corner threes, above the break threes and at the rim.
That also checks out in the percentage distribution of shots, according to CBB Analytics. Syracuse gets nearly a quarter (22.8%) of its attempted shots from in the paint (but not at the rim), which is in the 86th percentile among D1 schools. The Orange are also in the 82 percentile in mid-range attempts.
On the flip side, those aforementioned three below-average zones show up in other data… and in a not-so-good way.
The highlights (or lowlights in this case):
- At rim field goal attempt percentage: 29th percentile
- Above the break threes attempt percentage: 40th percentile
- Corner threes attempt percentage: 3rd percentile
This isn’t reflected in the chart above necessarily, but the key area Syracuse is leaving points on the table is in transition. Over 13% of the Orange’s shots come in fastbreak situations (54th percentile, which is at least above water), but their making just 52.5% of those looks which is actually in the 29th percentile.
Just how efficient are those shots?
The efficiency landscape for the Orange tells a pretty similar story, albeit with one important catch:
Chart and data according to CBB Analytics.
Notice the red for the corner threes. So here’s the crazy part: Syracuse is over 4% below the D1 average for corner threes, but its efficiency from that spot is 8% higher (nearly 44% from the corner).
The discussion around Syracuse’s shooting mainly revolves around the below water percentage from three as a whole. When in the corner on limited volume, Syracuse is pretty elite. The issue, again, is the volume.
The Orange collectively have taken 403 total threes in 2024-25, or about 20.2 attempts per game. Nearly 85% (!) of those attempts are classified as above the break per CBB Analytics, compared to just 15% from the two corners.
The efficiency is what’s even more telling: on that ridiculous volume from above the break threes, Syracuse’s percentage is 29% on the year (11th percentile). On the flip side, the Orange’s corner three volume is in the 3rd percentile, but the efficiency is in the 95th percentile.
Chart and data according to CBB Analytics.
And as much as the volume has recently been higher from three, Syracuse is still getting most of its looks from two-point range:
- At the rim field goal percentage: 67th percentile
- Paint two-pointers field goal percentage: 74th percentile
- Mid-range field goal percentage: 61st percentile
Just like the threes, Syracuse is still below water for volume compared to the rest of D1, but its efficiency on those shots is nearly 5% higher than the average.
Who’s responsible for what?
Syracuse’s offensive distribution among the three falls into three categories: J.J. Starling, the Jyare Davis-Eddie Lampkin duo and then the rest of the roster. For this section, we’ll be focusing just on the ACC portion of the schedule.
Despite missing two games, Starling is already at 110 field goal attempts which is 42 more than second place (Davis, 68). Starling is a bit below water from three (33%), but he’s taking roughly 72% of his shots from two, he’s shooting 45% overall against the ACC and he’s certainly had the highest usage of anyone on the team.
Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
What gets more interesting is the tier in volume below Davis and Lampkin (both between 65-70 total field goal attempts against the ACC).
That group includes Lucas Taylor, Chris Bell, Kyle Cuffe, Jaquan Carlos, Elijah Moore and Petar Majstorovic. It’s essentially the rest of Syracuse’s rotation, playing as low as 12.6 minutes per game (Moore) to as high as 28.1 MPG (Taylor). The scoring averages range from 2.4 PPG (Majstorovic) to 8.3 PPG (Bell).
It’s also the group where there is the most variance (for better or worse) on offensive performance:
- Taylor: probably the most consistent among the options left on the table, taking the fourth-most field goals on the team against the ACC but still shooting 44% from the field and 30% from three (third-most threes attempted as well).
- Bell: the highs include a strong 14/32 clip (43.8%) from three to start ACC play a few scoring outbursts, but the lows include a 42% field goal percentage and hot-cold performances on a week-by-week basis.
- Carlos: Decent-ish volume (45 FGA) and efficiency (44%), including from three (4/10, albeit a small sample size), but still the third-fewest total attempts among the main rotation.
- Cuffe: Volume is most similar to Bell from both overall FGA and threes attempted, but the efficiency through nine games is pretty bad — below 27% shooting from the floor and under 29% (8/28) from three.
- Moore: playing the least among these six players, and unfortunately shooting the least efficiently — 8/30 from the floor (27%) and 4/21 (19%) from three.
- Majstorovic: shooting 50% from the floor at least, but taking less than two shots per game against the ACC.
Overall, that’s the group where at least one in a given game will have to step up if Syracuse is going to have a chance against the rest of its conference schedule.
Now it’s your turn: what are your takeaways from what the numbers show about Syracuse’s offense?