Syracuse men’s basketball: an updated look at seeding scenarios for the ACC Tournament

NCAA Basketball: Syracuse at Virginia Tech — Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

A lot is still up in the air heading into the final week of the regular season.

Despite its brutal overtime loss to Virginia Tech over the weekend, the Syracuse Orange did clinch a spot in this year’s ACC Tournament.

That being said, what the Orange’s final seed will be remains an open question. For all conference tournament-clinching teams, the middle of the pack is only separated by a few games.

With one week left to go until the top-15 ACC teams head down to Greensboro, here’s a updated look at what’s at stake and where Syracuse could land in the conference tournament.

To recap the new ACC Tournament structure, seeds No. 10 through No. 15 will all play in the First Round. Teams who finish between fifth-best and ninth-best in the conference will have one bye, while the top-four receive a double-bye.

If the standings held up exactly, Syracuse would be the No. 13 seed and face No. 12 Virginia in the First Round. It the Orange win, they would face No. 5 Wake Forest and then No. 1 Duke. All of those games would be the first in that day’s ACC Tournament action (in the early afternoon).

The standings currently look like this:

#1 Duke: 26-3, 17-1
#2 Clemson: 24-5, 16-2
#3 Louisville: 23-6, 16-2
#4 SMU: 21-8, 12-6
#5 Wake Forest: 20-9, 12-6
#6 UNC: 19-11, 12-6
#7: Stanford: 19-10, 11-7
#8 Georgia Tech: 15-14, 9-9
#9: Virginia Tech: 13-16, 8-10
#10 Florida State: 16-13, 7-11
#11 Pittsburgh: 16-13, 7-11
#12 Virginia: 14-15, 7-11
#13 Syracuse: 12-17, 6-12
#14 California: 13-16, 6-12
#15 Notre Dame: 12-17, 6-12

With wins over Boston College (#16) and NC State (#17), who are both at 4-14 in the ACC this year, that’s how Syracuse is locked in to the top-15.

Where there could be plenty of change over the next week is what seeds No. 8 to No. 15 end up looking like.

Here’s what some of those scenarios would look like:

If Syracuse loses its final two games of the year (on the road versus SMU and at home against Virginia) and all “favorites” win in the rest of the ACC games according to BartTorvik, it would be a No. 14 seed. The Orange’s path would include No. 11 Virginia Tech, No. 6 UNC and No. 3 Clemson just to get into the ACC semifinals, as seen here:

If Syracuse wins both of its games, it would move up to No. 11. The path forward includes No. 14 Notre Dame, No. 6 SMU and No. 3 Clemson to reach the semis. This also assumes all Torvik favorites win.
If Syracuse beats Virginia and loses to SMU, it would be at No. 13 and face No. 12 Florida State, No. 5 Wake Forest and No. 4 SMU.
Now let’s get crazy: based on using the seeding calculator and changing up some of the results (mainly picking some Torvik favorites to lose and trying to calculate all sorts of different), I couldn’t come up with any scenario where Syracuse can get a double-bye (the Virginia Tech loss really stung with that possibility).
The highest Syracuse could get is No. 10. In the universe out there where it’s possible, Syracuse would need to win its last two games and these results would have to happen: Virginia and SMU each beat Florida State, Boston College and NC State both beat Pitt, Stanford beats Notre Dame and Cal loses to both Louisville and Notre Dame. Got all that? That scenario would result in this:

That outcome above, however, is super unlikely. If Syracuse still beats Virginia but loses to SMU, it would drop down again to the No. 14 seed.
Syracuse can also drop down to as far as the No. 15 and final seed. For that to happen, all it takes is Syracuse losing out and Cal beating Notre Dame in their final game.

In short, expect for there to be plenty of movement in the bottom-half of the standings and for the Orange to finish anywhere between No. 10 to No. 15.