Buffalo aims to end year one under Pete Lembo with a 9th victory on foreign soil.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, January 4 at 11:00 a.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Thomas A. Robinson Stadium — Nassau, Bahamas
- Spread: Buffalo (-3)
- Over/under: 50.5
- All-time series: Liberty leads, 3-0
- Last meeting: Liberty 55, Buffalo 27 — September 16, 2023
- Current streak: Liberty, 3 (1998-23)
- Buffalo last bowl: 2022 Camellia Bowl, 23-21 win over Georgia State
- Liberty last bowl: 2023 Fiesta Bowl, 45-6 loss to Liberty
- 2023 Bahamas (Famous Toastery) Bowl matchup: Western Kentucky 38, Old Dominion 35
Setting the scene
The Bahamas Bowl — the only bowl game played beyond United States borders — makes a triumphant return after a one-year hiatus. Due to stadium renovations, last year’s Bahamas Bowl transpired in Charlotte under the title of the Famous Toastery Bowl, where Western Kentucky overcame a 28-0 deficit to stun Old Dominion in overtime.
The Famous Toastery Bowl finish only adds to the lore of the Bahamas Bowl which is no stranger to crazy occurrences. In fact the first Bahamas Bowl between Central Michigan and WKU featured a 34 unanswered fourth quarter points by the Chippewas, with the final play of regulation being a dramatic Hail Mary and hook-and-ladder sequence for a touchdown.
Buffalo (8-5, 6-2 MAC) is no stranger to the Bahamas Bowl scene. In 2019, the Bulls eviscerated Charlotte 31-6 to secure their first-ever bowl win. The program has been quite successful in the postseason since, and they seek their fourth-straight bowl victory in their first return to Nassau in five years.
Liberty (8-3, 5-3 CUSA) is brand new to this game. The Flames look to snap a two-game bowl losing streak in the Bahamas and earn their fourth bowl victory during their seven years of FBS membership.
It’s the third meeting in six seasons between the programs. Liberty claimed the first two in 2019 and 2023, but Buffalo enters as the favorite in the fourth-to-last college football game of the 2024 season.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
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Buffalo was one of the greatest surprises in all of college football this year. The Bulls underwent an unexpected coaching change in the offseason when Maurice Linguist accepted an assistant role on Kalen DeBoer’s staff at Alabama, causing the program to hire Pete Lembo in late January. Lembo brought instant success to the program, rattling off eight regular season wins and six conference wins. With one more victory, this becomes the second 9-win campaign in Buffalo history.
The Bulls’ sudden transformation is driven heavily by their defense, where they feature one of the best players in the country. Inside linebacker Shaun Dolac became the first consensus All-American to wear a Buffalo uniform, thoroughly dominating as the nation’s leading tackler with 159 stops and interception return yards leader with 177 on five picks. Dolac’s season stat-line is absolutely something to marvel at as he also features 17 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and four pass breakups.
If Dolac’s 159 tackles weren’t enough, Buffalo also trots out the nation’s second-leading tackler in the same linebacking corps. Outside backer Red Murdock is one of the most improved players in the MAC with 143 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, and a MAC-leading five forced fumbles. As suggested by the linebacking corps, Buffalo’s defense excels in stopping the run most, but Dolac’s coverage ability also makes the unit quite lethal in the short passing game.
Coverage hasn’t been Buffalo’s strongest element in 2024 as the FBS’s 120th-ranked unit in passing yards allowed per game. Names to watch in the secondary, looking to improve this area before the season ends, include cornerback Marquis Cooper and strong safety Marcus Fuqua. Cooper is the team leader with eight pass breakups and also has two picks on the year, while Fuqua is two years removed from All-American recognition as the 2022 FBS leader in interceptions.
Offensively, Buffalo showed tremendous improvement from Week 1 to Week 14, and that progression can be attributed to the play of quarterback CJ Ogbonna. The first-year starter didn’t eclipse 200 passing yards in his first six games, but he fired for 250+ in four of his last six, showing increased comfort in the pocket. Ogbonna limited egregious mistakes and manufactured an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 19-to-5, all while making strides as a scrambler throughout the year.
Victor Snow and JJ Jenkins are the primary options when Ogbonna drops back to pass. They field 51 receptions for 610 yards and 36 receptions for 536 yards, respectively, as the overwhelming No. 1 and No. 2 options of the aerial attack. The deep ball is frequently incorporated into the offense too, and Ogbonna averages 12.7 yards per completion with Jenkins thriving as the preferred downfield option.
In the run game, Al-Jay Henderson has a golden opportunity at becoming Buffalo’s first 1,000-yard back since 2021 as he sits just 41 yards away from the millennium mark. The Bulls went 4-0 in the regular season when Henderson hit the century mark, so establishing the run has been a key determining in winning for Lembo’s team.
One other item of note in the Bahamas Bowl is kicker Upton Bellenfant is in the portal. The All-MAC kicker was quite automatic for the Bulls with 14 makes on 16 attempts, so if this comes down to the wire, they’ll certainly miss the reliable specialist’s services.
Liberty Flames outlook
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Liberty finished 6-6 in its first-ever FBS season in 2018. Ever since, the Flames haven’t completed a single year without at least eight wins. Compared to preseason expectations and coming off a 13-1 season with a Fiesta Bowl appearance, 8-3 isn’t exact what Jamey Chadwell and his players had in mind, but there exists an opportunity to add an extra win to that total and leave the Bahamas with some hardware.
However, it’s going to be an uphill battle thanks to the modern-day college football climate due to the transfer portal. Starting dual-threat quarterback Kaidon Salter already transferred to Colorado and two starting offensive linemen announced their transfer commitments, leaving the offense quite shorthanded. The Flames will be missing a 1,200-yard rusher in Quinton Cooley as well, who left the team in order to focus on NFL Draft preparation.
So what does Chadwell’s signature spread option attack look like Saturday morning? It features Appalachian State transfer Ryan Burger at quarterback whose experience is quite limited at the FBS level. He threw 24 passes in three seasons (seven this year) and rushed 12 times for 26 yards. Quarterback mobility is a prominent feature in Liberty’s offense, so Burger must be prepared to execute in that facet of the game to assist the nation’s second-ranked rushing offense (259 yards per game).
Also fueling the run game will be Billy Lucas. He was banged up to end the year but is expected to take over No. 1 tailback duties in the Bahamas Bowl due to Cooley’s absence. Lucas rushed for 663 yards on a 5.5 average this year, and he’ll be shadowed by Vaughn Blue (6.7 yards per carry) as Liberty aims to sustain its explosive ground game.
Liberty doesn’t pass nearly as much, ranking 12th in the FBS in fewest passing attempts per game. But when the Flames drop back, they aim deep. Treon Sibley led the receiving corps in the regular season with 19.2 yards per reception, and four of Liberty’s top five receivers exceeded 14 yards per catch. Sibley, Elijah Canion, and Tyson Mobley are all quite even in the receptions department this season, and that position group can be a strength for Liberty on Saturday in an otherwise-shorthanded offense.
The Flames owned a top 50 defense, staying relatively balanced in containing the air and ground alike. The pass rush wasn’t as prevalent as it was in 2023, but TJ Bush still thrived on the edge with a team-high 5.5 sacks when nobody else produced more than 2.0. Generating that pressure will be essential to limiting an improved Buffalo offense in the Bahamas, but Liberty also needs to be on its turnover game.
In 2023, Liberty made a name for itself with 21 interceptions on the year. This season, the Flames couldn’t replicate that lofty output and picked off just eight passes. Most of the havoc comes from the safety room, but Liberty may be shorthanded in that group due to injury. Brylan Green and Quinton Reese are among the injured Flames, but Reese could potentially return for this game to cap a stellar five-year tenure with the university.
Prediction
An unfortunate reality of a January bowl is it’s difficult to find two teams at full strength, and Liberty is a severe victim of absences this Saturday. While the Flames must operate without a quarterback and running back that led them to a New Year’s Six bowl last year, there’s still talent and depth that could shine behind them.
Jamey Chadwell’s scheme makes a tough matchup for many defenses, and the Flames should still witness some success with Ryan Burger as the chief facilitator and Billy Lucas taking over as the top back. But Buffalo is going to present plenty of problems for Liberty. CJ Ogbonna keeps getting better and better, and his rapport with his receivers took a different form in November — making the Bulls’ offense as lethal as its been since 2020. Combine that with a Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock-led defense designed to stop a run-heavy scheme, and Buffalo has all the tools to claim its fourth-straight bowl win.
Prediction: Buffalo 32, Liberty 21