The reigning MAC champions look to double down after upending Northwestern in Evanston two years ago.
Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, August 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium in Evanston, Illinois
- Gambling considerations: Northwestern (-2.5), with an over/under of 39.5
- TV options: The game will be available on the Big Ten Network. Check your local network schedules for availability. Lisa Byington (play-by-play) and Jared Thomas (color) will provide commentary.
- Streaming options: The game will be available via the Fox Sports App. A valid subscription is required for viewing. Other applicable cable/satellite streaming services are also available with a valid subscription. Other streaming carriers include Sling, DirecTV Stream, fuboTV, Hulu Live TV, or YouTube TV.
- Radio options: Steve Baker (play-by-play) and Terry Bridge (color) will provide the Miami call for WMOH-AM 1450.
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 7-3
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 17, Northwestern 14 — September 24, 2022
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 1 (2022)
Setting the scene
It’s Miami (OH) at Northwestern, the rematch.
The two programs met two years ago in Evanston, IL with the RedHawks triumphing in a low-scoring rock fight. It wasn’t the most aesthetically pleasing game for lovers of offense, but Miami (OH) emerged in the final minute on a game-winning field goal by Graham Nicholson — securing the RedHawks’ first Big Ten victory since 2003.
Two years have passed and both programs have greatly advanced since. The RedHawks won the MAC championship last December and return a roster loaded with All-MAC talent, while the Wildcats, operating under interim coach David Braun, strung together four-straight victories to end last year to shock the college football world and finish 8-5.
Not only are the programs in different place, but the game is in a different place. This matchup is also in Evanston, but Ryan Field no longer exists. While Northwestern awaits the construction of its new stadium expected to debut in 2026, the Wildcats will play their home games at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. The quaint venue which typically houses soccer and lacrosse games provides a scenic view of Lake Michigan and seats 15,000.
Miami will be the first visitor to the temporary football stadium this Saturday.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
The champions are ready to run it back.
Miami (OH) already won a championship under head coach Chuck Martin in 2019, but the 2023 RedHawks took things a step further. They rattled off 11 victories, including the MAC Championship Game over Toledo, for their winningest season since 2003, tying for the most victories by a single MAC team since 2016.
What’s even more impressive is such a strong contingent of contributors committed to run to back in 2024. One of those contributors didn’t participate in the 2023 MAC Championship Game, but he fueled the conference title run last fall and won another league crown as a starter in 2019. That’s quarterback Brett Gabbert who enters his sixth season as Miami’s chief signal caller.
When Gabbert is available, great things tend to happen with the RedHawks offensively. Gabbert qualified for two All-MAC teams and won bowl MVP honors in the 2021 Frisco Football Classic. He’s third in program history in passing yards and if he produces his first-ever 3,000-yard season, he passes the great Ben Roethlisberger on the list. The only issue with Gabbert has been availability. He suffered a gruesome right leg injury to end his 2023 season prematurely in October, although his first reaction after the injury was prophetic, telling Coach Martin, “We can still get to Detroit. You know that, right?”
In 2022, Gabbert was limited to four games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in the opener. He missed three games in 2021, including Week 1, or else he’d be the first-ever quarterback to start six-straight openers with a single program. His last full season was 2019, and he hopes to replicate that availability this year, which is even more essential given the offseason departure of veteran backup Aveon Smith, who started and won the MAC title game.
Miami switched up its offensive strategy the last two seasons depending on whether the starter was Gabbert or Smith. There was more proclivity to pass with Gabbert in the lineup as he threw 18+ passes in all eight starts while Smith only hit that threshold in one of his six starts. When Gabbert was out, the ground game ran more rampant. Rashad Amos emerged as a star toward the end of the season, averaging 109 rushing yards per game across those final six contests.
Even though Amos transferred this offseason, Miami totes plenty of veteran experience in the running back stable. Keyon Mozee was the lead back in 2021 and 2022 and likely returns to that role this season. The RedHawks also added Purdue transfer Dylan Downing who served as a secondary and tertiary back with the Boilermakers, in addition to returning longtime third down backs Kevin Davis and Kenny Tracy — who combine for 102 receptions as RedHawks.
Speaking of the receiving game, Miami loses its top wideout from 2023 in breakout star Gage Larvadain. Without Larvadain, the RedHawks are relying on their returning talent to step up and emerge. Cade McDonald is the returning leader in receiving production, and he’ll line up alongside starters Javon Tracy and Reggie Virgil. Sixth-year senior Arizona State transfer Andre Johnson is the most intriguing newcomer for a program which has seen plenty of transfer success at the position. Also, expect heavy tight end utilization in an offense which returns veteran Jack Coldiron as well as experienced Florida State transfer Preston Daniel.
As much experience as Miami flaunts in its skill positions, it possesses even more on a star-studded offensive line. Four starters return in the trenches after the group paved way for a 1,000-yard rusher and allowed just 1.8 sacks per game in 2023. Both tackles, Will Jados and Reid Holskey, attained all-conference honors in a super massive o-line which features four players 6’6” or above, with the entire unit weighing over 300+.
While the RedHawks offense is nothing to scoff at, the 2023 MAC championship run was primarily defensive driven as the unit ranked in the FBS top 10 in fewest points allowed, finishing seventh at 15.9 per game. Miami produced the MAC Defensive Player of the Year in outside linebacker Matt Salopek, who aims to become the first-ever RedHawk with four-straight 100+ tackle seasons in 2024. Salopek’s 143 tackles checked in at third in the country last year, but he’s not the only tackling machine at linebacker. Middle linebacker Ty Wise added 122 as another run deterrent, and he helped spearhead an impressive pass rush.
The RedHawks averaged 2.5 sacks per contest last fall and return two players that registered at least eight quarterback takedowns in 2023. One is Wise and another is Brian Ugwu who becomes the top defensive end on the team after the departure of Caiden Woullard. The pass rush hopes to remain and lethal and make life easier for a revamped secondary which features Raton Strader as the top corner. Strader held down the fort as a true freshman a year ago with a team-high 13 pass breakups, but he’ll be joined in the defensive backfield by a new starter in Caleb Tubbs who earned a major role after recording just one tackle in 2023.
The last thing to note about Miami is the field goal unit. The RedHawks featured the best kicker in the nation last year in Lou Groza Award winner Graham Nicholson. Field goals were almost a certainty last year, and that’s a high expectation redshirt freshman kelang McLaughlin must live up to.
Northwestern Wildcats outlook
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
At this time a year ago, Northwestern seemed to be living in a nightmare. The Wildcats were selected to finish dead last in the Big Ten preseason media poll and all but one of the 37 voters pegged them as the worst team in the conference. Fallout from controversy surrounding longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald also resulted in a sudden change of leadership, leaving David Braun the tall task of leading a program in turmoil.
A 24-7 loss to Rutgers in the opener made it look like Northwestern fans were in for a long season, and the team was actually home underdogs to UTEP in Week 2. But the Wildcats took care of business, earned a key overtime victory over Minnesota later in September, and then simply learned how to win. They rattled off four-straight to conclude the season, including a program-defining Las Vegas Bowl win over Utah to improve to 5-0 in bowls since 2016.
It’s no surprise Braun shed the interim label after a successful 8-5 campaign in 2023. However, maintaining success has been a struggle for Northwestern lately, faring 3-9 after its last two winning seasons — seasons which featured Big Ten Championship Game appearances, bowl wins, and rankings in the final AP Poll. The Wildcats return to underdog status though, listed as 14th of 18 Big Ten teams in the preseason media poll.
One notable change is at quarterback after the graduation of sixth-year senior Ben Bryant, who displayed a gritty performance for the ages to win the Las Vegas Bowl. Bryant proved to be a reliable starter with decent efficiency numbers, but it was rare for him to record more than 250 passing yards per game, which he did on one occasion last year. His 2024 replacement is likely Mike Wright who had multiple stops in the SEC at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Wright hasn’t proven to be someone who tears apart defenses with 250+ yard showings either, but he’s a lethal rusher with three 100+ yard games on the ground during his time as Vanderbilt’s starter.
If it’s not Wright, it could be one of the returning quarterbacks in Jack Lausch or Ryan Hilinski, the latter of whom was the primary starter in 2021 and 2022. But if it’s Wright, there will be plenty of quarterback mobility in Northwestern’s offense. The former Commodore and Bulldog still needs to maintain efficiency when dropping back to pass after a career completion rate of 55.5 percent with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Wright definitely plays his hand in the run game, but so does a familiar face in Cam Porter — a key member of the running back rotation since 2020. Porter led the unit with 651 rushing yards a year ago. The offense finished 106th in points per game and 96th in passing, but relatively, the run game was the area of the offense which needs the most improvement after ranking 122nd in that regard at 101.9 yards per game. Jack Bailey and Matt Keeler are transfer portal additions to the line hoping to provide more push in order for that improvement to happen.
Braun’s first notable administrative decision as head coach involved firing offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian after producing the aforementioned output, and Northwestern will go in a different direction this year with Zach Lujan who directed the offenses of back-to-back FCS champion South Dakota State.
So how did Northwestern generate eight victories with mediocre to bad offensive statistics? Turnover fortune played a significant role. The Wildcats finished third in the FBS in turnover margin at +13, only losing one fumble all year while consistently finding ways to get the ball to the offense. Returning inside linebacker Xander Mueller was excellent in the short coverage game with three interceptions and a forced fumble as one of the Wildcats’ chief takeaway initiators.
Mueller also spearheaded a praiseworthy pass rush which collected 2.3 sacks per game on average. He was one of three Wildcats to collect at least five sacks in 2023 and the other two return to the roster as defensive ends — Aidan Hubbard and Anto Saka — keeping Northwestern dangerous in the trenches once again this year.
The defense didn’t take on too many transfers but there are several key departures that must be replaced. Leading tackler Bryce Gallagher at outside linebacker is one of them, so Mac Uihlein is a potential starter to keep an eye on after producing 18 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss as Gallagher’s understudy last fall.
Roughly half the starting secondary is back, and this was one of the Wildcats’ strengths during the 8-win season. They finished 15th in fewest passing yards yielded and the safety tandem of Coco Azema and Devin Turner hopes to continue the trend in year two of the Braun era.
Prediction
Throughout Northwestern’s history, one theme always seems to hold true — the Wildcats play to the level of their opponent on a weekly basis. This applied even in Northwestern’s best seasons like 2018 when the Wildcats reached the Big Ten Championship Game but dropped a home matchup vs. 4-8 Akron.
Northwestern found itself in eight one-score games last year including seven of the last eight. Its one-score games included contests against an FCS team Howard, Big Ten West champion Iowa, and even Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl — oftentimes transpiring in low-scoring fashion.
The same thing will likely be observed Saturday night. Miami attacks with a lot more experience across the board, and there’s MAC championship pedigree across the majority of position groups, especially the offensive line and linebacking corps. Miami also enters with an experienced quarterback in Brett Gabbert who should enter the makeshift football stadium with a demeanor of calmness and poise.
It won’t be one of the most aesthetically pleasing games Saturday, but it’ll be close and exciting in the final five minutes. Overall, the MAC champions have that extra edge that’ll push them past the Wildcats for their second Big Ten win in three seasons.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 21, Northwestern 19