The Minutemen face another SEC foe— though this time, they’ll be in hostile territory.
Since joining the FBS in 2012, UMass has lost every game they have played against power conference schools. That’s 28 straight losses. Add in games against power conference schools while the Minutemen were in the FCS, and this losing streak rises to 40 games. In fact, the Minutemen have not defeated a current power conference school since beating Boston College in 1978.
It’s been awhile, to say the least.
Saturday could be UMass’ best chance to get that elusive power conference win, when the Minutemen travel to Starkvile to take on 1-7 Mississippi State this Saturday.
Game notes
- Time and Date: Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024 at 4:15 p.m. Eastern time
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
- Gambling considerations: Mississippi State is an 18.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 30.5 points, per DraftKings.
- Viewing options: The game will be available on the SEC Network. A valid cable subscription is required for viewing. Dave Neal (play-by-play) and Aaron Murray (color) will provide commentary.
- Radio options: For UMass, Jay Burnham (play-by-play) and Matt Goldstein (color) will provide the call on WCRN 830 AM.
- All-time series: First meeting
The UMass defense could have trouble against Mississippi State’s pass-first offense. Between Michael Van Buren Jr. and Blake Shapen starting at quarterback, the Bulldogs average 259 yards per game through the air. The Missouri game showed UMass did not match up well against SEC pass offenses, as Brady Cook torched the Minutemen for an efficient 14-of-19 through the air for 219 yards and two touchdowns on a day where his business was largely taken care of early. The pass defense must perform well early on to prevent the Minutemen from falling behind too early.
The most glaring weakness of the UMass defense is their run defense, which allows over 170 yards per game. The Minutemen looked overmatched against Missouri, allowing 231 yards and over six yards per carry. UMass may want to force Mississippi State to run the ball given the Bulldogs’ struggles on the ground. Mississippi State averages less than four yards per carry and 131 yards per game. Forcing Mississippi State to run the ball allows the Minutemen to keep the game within reach. However, the front seven must execute.
UMass’ offense could be in line for a good showing despite the talent gap against an Mississippi State defense which can best de described as ineffective.
The Bulldogs allow over 220 yards per game rushing and 5.5 yards per carry, stats which could prove tasty for a Minutemen rushing attack looking to milk clock and prove themselves. The fewer dropbacks, the less likely Mississippi State sacks Taisun Phommachanh, who opposing defenses have sacked 28 times.
The betting lines have this as a huge advantage in the direction of the hoisting Bulldogs, but the two squads do have a unique thing in common: a common opponent.
Toledo was not explosive running the ball against Mississippi State in their upset bid, but they were consistent. The Rockets wore the Bulldogs down with 168 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry. Emulating that type of performance will shorten the game for the Minutemen and limit the opportunities Mississippi State has for big passing plays.
Playing out the box scores of those games, UMass could have a chance based on transitive property; the Rockets embarrassed Mississippi State, while UMass dominated nearly every stat category against them despite their loss. The main difference was ultimately turnovers and execution mistakes.
Mississippi State is having a bad enough year for UMass to upset them. The Minutemen must avoid beating themselves and making mistakes at inopportune times like in the Miami (OH) and Missouri games. Not many may believe it, but UMass has the ability to make history against Mississippi State.