Toledo looks for a get-right game at home against a hobbled CMU squad.
The Toledo Rockets (6-3, 3-2 MAC) are in a must-win situation over the rest of the 2024 campaign, as even one loss can take them out of the MAC title hunt. They’re set to host the Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6, 1-4 MAC), a team which has had the bottom fall out from under them in part due to injuries and in part due to their own mistakes.
Historically, Toledo has been the dominant team in this matchup, but with stakes as high as they are for both sides (CMU must win out to nab a postseason bid and prevent a third-straight losing season), a win could be up for grabs under the unpredictable weeknight lights.
Game notes
- Time and date: Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024 at 7 p.m. Eastern time
- Location: Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio
- Viewing options: The game will be streamed exclusively on ESPNU. A valid cable subscription is required. Matt Schumaker (play-by-play) and Dustin Fox (color) will commentate.
- Streaming options: The game will be available for streaming on the ESPN App or on applicable cable/satellite services. A valid subscription is required for viewing on either platform. Other streaming carriers include Sling, DirecTV Stream, fuboTV, Hulu Live TV, or YouTube TV.
- Radio options: Adam Jaksa (play-by-play) and Brock Gutierrez (color) will provide the CMU call for WUPS-FM 98.5, while Mark Baier (play-by-play) and Jack Mewhort (color) will provide the Toledo call for the Rockets Radio Network.
- Gambling considerations: Toledo are 14.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 50.5, per DraftKings.
- All-time series: Toledo leads the series 29-20-3 all-time, and won the contest last year by a margin of 32-17. Toledo has not lost to Central in a home game since 2008, and has won 12 of the last 14 contests overall, with the last loss in 2021.
Getting to know the Chippewas
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The Chippewas are wounded, that much is true. What is also true is they were struggling even before the injuries started taking their true toll.
CMU has found themselves digging out of holes of their own creation multiple times in wins or close losses in part because their complimentary football is broken. CMU holds one of the NCAA’s worst turnover margins (-9 total; 123rd in NCAA) and scoring defenses (31.2 points allowed per game; 107th in NCAA) despite being excellent in generating defensive third-down stops (33.9 percent; 34th in NCAA), team tackles-for-loss (71; seventh in NCAA) and team sacks (25; 23rd in NCAA.)
Any good play from the defense is typically squandered on a woeful offense, whose third-down conversion rate (33.2 percent; 118th in NCAA) and time of possession (28:37; 102nd in NCAA) forces the defense to stand on their heads to keep games competitive.
To translate: CMU doesn’t force turnovers or punts, they don’t hold on to the ball and they allow more points than they score. All sub-optimal outcomes if you want to win games.
The offense is basically a wash at this point in the season, with five starting passcatchers and two quarterbacks out for the season and the offensive line continually suffering from maintenance injuries.
Last week was the nadir of quarterback performance, with third-stringer Tyler Jefferson benched for fourth-string true freshman Jadyn Glasser after collecting six first-half passing yards. Glasser finished with 57 passing yards and a rushing touchdown, and could be in line to start this week given Jefferson’s less-than-stellar audition as a starter over the last two weeks.
The maelstrom at QB has also impacted the running game, which has collected 267 yards on 74 carries (3.6 yards per carry) in the last two contests to counter 125 passing yards on 13 completions (31 attempts.) Marion Lukes and Myles Bailey continue to shoulder the load there, with 756 yards and seven touchdowns on 146 carries.
Chris Parker (24 catches, 308 yards, three touchdowns) and Solomon Davis (14 catches, 255 yards, two touchdowns) are the healthiest receivers on the team and will likely key in for CMU.
Defensively, the team numbers aren’t fantastic, but a number of individual talents make them intriguing. Jordan Kwaitkowski has put together an incredible season at linebacker, with 74 total tackles— including a team-leading 12 tackles-for-loss— and an interception on the season. Defensive linemen Jonah Pace and Jason Williams have combined for 19 TFLs and 10 sacks on the season, while linebackers Dakota Cochran and Justin Whiteside each have three sacks. Donte Kent continues to put up a decent season at corner, with 41 tackles and seven pass break-ups.
Getting to know the Rockets
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Toledo has looked vulnerable over the last month, which is interesting considering how fast they started out of the gate.
The Rockets are 2-2 in the last four games, with bad losses to Buffalo (30-15) and rival Bowling Green (41-26) and ugly wins over Northern Illinois (13-6) and Eastern Michigan (29-28), putting them on the back foot of the MAC title chase.
They haven’t been able to get a winning streak going since starting the year 3-0 after upsetting Mississippi State either, going loss, win, loss, win, loss, win in the six games since.
From a statistical standpoint, nothing immediately stands out as a red flag either, as Toledo outscores opponents by an average of seven points per game (29.1 for vs. 22.3 against), outgains opponents offensively (380.2 yards gained vs. 365.9 yards allowed), scores more total touchdowns (32 for to 19 against) and even stops opponents in key down situations, allowing conversions just 37 percent of the time on third down and 47 percent of the time on fourth down.
The one stat Toledo loses is turnovers, with a -2 turnover margin (13 caused vs. 11 forced), but the 2023 squad was actually worse to end the season, sitting at -3. (Though, one could probably extrapolate that this team is on pace to do worse considering we’re nine games into this season.)
The Rockets are the best passing team in the MAC by a decent margin, averaging 261.3 yards per game (36th in the NCAA) in 2024. Tucker Gleason has been up-and-down due to injury, but has been efficient on his day, completing 61 percent of his passes for 1,896 yards and 18 touchdowns— though he is responsible for seven interceptions. Jerjuan Newton (49 catches, 783 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the big play threat to look out for and should be a fun best-on-best matchup for Donte Kent. Junior Vandeross III is the possession receiver, with 56 catches, 628 yards and six touchdowns, while tight end Anthony Torres is a redzone threat with six touchdowns on 18 receptions.
The running game has understandably regressed with the departure of Peny Boone and most of the offensive line— though it’s surprising just how much they’ve struggled. They’re ninth in the MAC in rushing yards, averaging 118.9 yards per contest, a bottom-third number in the NCAA.
To this point, the rushing offense has largely conducted through Connor Walendzak, who has carried the ball 96 times for 361 yards and a touchdown, and the aforementioned Gleason, who has four touchdowns and is second on the team in rushing yards (202.) Sevaughn Clark and Jacquez Stuart also rotate in every so often, combining for 345 yards and two touchdowns on 89 carries.
Defensively, this team is a step down from last year but still one of the more competent units in the MAC.
They rank top five in the conference in scoring defense (22.3 points per game allowed, fifth), rushing defense (136.3 yards per game allowed; third) and opposing fourth-down conversion rate (47.4 percent; fifth). Their main weakness thus far has been in the passing game, coming in seventh in the MAC in passing yards allowed (261.3), but otherwise, this team is above board in most relevant categories.
Maxen Hook has looked great at safety, leading the team with 82 tackles, a tackle-for-loss, an interception and a fumble recovered, while Braden Awls has been a pleasant surprise in the secondary with a team-leading three interceptions and four pass break-ups. Avery Smith has 11 PBUs and 40 tackles on the season from the corner spot taking the place for first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell well. Six different Rockets have picked up at least five TFLs this season, with Cavon Butler and D’Andre Ragin right outside that group with 4.5 TFLs. Butler, Ragin and Darius Alexander all hold the joint lead in sacks as well, with 2.5 each.
This team will look to get CMU off schedule early with pressure and force drive-enders with a secondary who has proven capable at getting interceptions (seven) and PBUs (41). With CMU’s passing problems of recent, they could feast if the Chips are forced to rely on their freshmen to make plays.